Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m hoping we get 12+ out here. Seems like a 50/50

Me too. Honestly going to be disappointed if it’s less than 12. North shore will prob have. Better chance 

[psv88]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m hoping we get 12+ out here. Seems like a 50/50

My gut is telling me that we get 10" out here plus a bunch of sleet. All depends on the secondary. If it pops early and south like the GFS has it, we will get 18"...

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

My gut is telling me that we get 10" out here plus a bunch of sleet. All depends on the secondary. If it pops early and south like the GFS has it, we will get 18"...

If you get 18” I’m getting 2’+ lol

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Seems like the QPf is slowly increasing. Does anybody agree??

Yes I've noticed that seems to be a trend today too.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Yes and gently trending towards a colder solution like GFS...


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Usually you take a blend. It worked out last weekend. 

There is a reason the NWS heavily leans on the NBM (national blend of models). 

The NBM does not contain the ICON, but it does contain the UKIE and Euro. Here, the synoptic pattern with respect to the primary matters alot with respect to the mid-levels, so the GFS has more weight than normal when it comes to mid level warming, etc. 

When track is the same, follow the Euro/Mesos for thermals. When the synoptics differ, then GFS gets more weight than usual in my book. Its picking up on the earlier transfer and other models have been trending that way as well. Once the models agree more on the development of the secondary, the GFS thermals go out the window and we lean on the mesos.

[SnoSki14]

Man if the GFS idea is right about the quick coastal transfer then the ceiling is very high 

[Prue11]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Man if the GFS idea is right about the quick coastal transfer then the ceiling is very high 

Hasn’t the GFS been awful all winter?

[Prue11]

It seems like whenever someone gets a model Run they like for that area they’re immediately assuming it’s the solution 

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Hasn’t the GFS been awful all winter?

Was better then the euro for last weekend. Euro was always way to offshore an trended closer to coast where the GFS was. The AI have been the best an they drop around a foot in the city. 

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Was better then the euro for last weekend. Euro was always way to offshore a trended closer to coast where the GFS was. The AI have been the best a they drop around a foot in the city. 

 I Know the euro has gotten worse over the years. It used to be a very reliable model 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Prue11 said:

 I Know the euro has gotten worse over the years. It used to be a very reliable model 

Ain't what it used to be since the upgrade that's for sure 

[SleetStormNJ]

AI Euro and GEFS were almost identical btw.  Aside from the fretting of snowmaps or other warm-nose evolution, the scale of the system and moisture being worked with is impressive.

[NJwx85]

None of the models are as good as they used to be. I’ve seen them all make wild jumps. However they have all converged for this storm and confidence is fairly high with a few nuances still to be worked out. 

[MJO812]

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Decades? The record-setting January 22-23, 2016 blizzard was just over 10 years ago. The long-duration January 31-February 4, 2021 storm that brought 17.4" to NYC was just under 5 years ago. The Post would do well to consult weather information before writing its headlines.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

None of the models are as good as they used to be. I’ve seen them all make wild jumps. However they have all converged for this storm and confidence is fairly high with a few nuances still to be worked out. 

Maybe we get a compromise of some type since the amped models seem to be relaxing a bit. But it would take a lot for me to buy into a SWFE type system dumping widespread 12”+ in NYC. Would I buy that in Boston-sure. 

[eduggs]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

None of the models are as good as they used to be. I’ve seen them all make wild jumps. However they have all converged for this storm and confidence is fairly high with a few nuances still to be worked out. 

Except for those no longer under development, every single model is better than it used to be. And compared to 10 years ago they are significantly better than they used to be. Personal feelings otherwise stem from various cognitive biases and being hyper focused on a localized area.

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

driving for work did euro go south ?

Yea, made a move towards GFS type solution. 00z will be interesting 

[dseagull]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Decades? The record-setting January 22-23, 2016 blizzard was just over 10 years ago. The long-duration January 31-February 4, 2021 storm that brought 17.4" to NYC was just under 5 years ago.

Headlines and click bait sell... nothing is genuine in "journalism" anymore. 

[RedSky]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hype knob turned to far right position

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe we get a compromise of some type since the amped models seem to be relaxing a bit. But it would take a lot for me to buy into a SWFE type system dumping widespread 12”+ in NYC. Would I buy that in Boston-sure. 

All about the coastal. If we can get that south by nc/va border it's game on. Gfs been showing that an the euro just moved towards that solution 

[eduggs]

Most of us are still right on the edge IMO. I disagree with the sentiment that today has seen positive trends. I'm encouraged by the stability of the AI models, but the UK, CMC/RGEM, ECM, and NAM have persistent mid-level lows that are right at the cusp of eating into snow totals with sleet. That really hasn't changed much since last night. I expect that future NAM runs will lead the way in terms of signalling how far advanced the warm nose gets. This could still be 4" or 18" at NYC.

[North and West]

I’m starting to think there will be a strip of 20”+ from about MMU to HPN. That’s where there should be maximum dynamics while staying all or mostly snow. But we still have 60+ hours to go so a lot can still change. 

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[WestBabylonWeather]

Weather channel going for the southern ice apocalypse and 12-18 for nyc 

[sussexcountyobs]

Doesn't matter what falls. Central Park will log in the books 3.8"

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yea, made a move towards GFS type solution. 00z will be interesting 

I think that's a bit of wishful thinking. The GFS is still on its own with jackpot snows from DCA to NYC. If the 18z was better than 12z, it was a minor shift. I haven't seen good images yet of 500mb/700mb/850mb.

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Most of us are still right on the edge IMO. I disagree with the sentiment that today has seen positive trends. I'm encouraged by the stability of the AI models, but the UK, CMC/RGEM, ECM, and NAM have persistent mid-level lows that are right at the cusp of eating into snow totals with sleet. That really hasn't changed much since last night. I expect that future NAM runs will lead the way in terms of signalling how far advanced the warm nose gets. This could still be 4" or 18" at NYC.

The rgem an CMC are always too amped an the Euro made a move to the GFS 2 runs in a row. The gfs ai an euro AI are almost nearly identical. An both bring a foot or more to the city. If the euro makes another move to the GFS tonight. You still gonna write it off?  I understand that the GFS could go back the other way. But it's been steady 

[wxman]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Most of us are still right on the edge IMO. I disagree with the sentiment that today has seen positive trends. I'm encouraged by the stability of the AI models, but the UK, CMC/RGEM, ECM, and NAM have persistent mid-level lows that are right at the cusp of eating into snow totals with sleet. That really hasn't changed much since last night. I expect that future NAM runs will lead the way in terms of signalling how far advanced the warm nose gets. This could still be 4" or 18" at NYC.

Strongly agree with your conclusion...but not getting worse today is a win.  We lose a lot more than we win around these parts.

[Franklin0529]

Just now, eduggs said:

I think that's a bit of wishful thinking. The GFS is still on its own with jackpot snows from DCA to NYC. If the 18z was better than 12z, it was a minor shift. I haven't seen good images yet of 500mb/700mb/850mb.

How are you gonna say it's wishful thinking when you didn't even look at it? Sounds more like your a Debbie thinking 

[weatherpruf]

Weather channel going for the southern ice apocalypse and 12-18 for nyc 

Wife is at Costco central nj. No milk or eggs left. A lot of other stuff gone too. She got the lactose free junk she drinks. Stuff always tastes like it’s sour. It’s panic time .


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