Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[psv88]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Somehow cmc ensembles ran but anyways their a goooood hit

Jesus. CMC would have been a snow bomb then. 

[EastonSN+]

28 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Jim cantore just mentioned this and was why he was concerned now with ZR in the city an south and east

To his credit he did mention a couple days ago this had bust potential for DC through NYC due to more mixing.

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

They keep going lower and lower ever since yesterday as predicted by a lot of us, I still think they might go lower.

This is fine 

[Miller A]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It’s not going to rain on LI (plain rain) outside of maybe Montauk. This kind of cold surface air won’t be dislodged unless we had a strong prolonged onshore flow. I could maybe see freezing rain for a time but the back half of this storm is probably sleet. NJ gets that prolonged onshore flow so south of Tom’s River it might really change to rain. 

I am hating being the dividing line here in TR. 

At this point I assume warm air wins.  It always does and this means maybe 5” along the coast

Would prefer a sleet fest over a slop fest. Both suck to clean, but at least it can give you that mood snow feeling

I was in such a good mood a few days ago and now I feel foolish for thinking there would be no major changeover 

[MJO812]

Don't trust the Nam right now 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Miller A said:

I am hating being the dividing line here in TR. 

At this point I assume warm air wins.  It always does and this maybe 5” along the coast

Would prefer a sleet fest over a slop fest. Both suck to clean, but at least it can give you that mood snow feeling

I was in such a good mood a few days ago and now I feel foolish for thinking there would be no major changeover 

Unfortunately with the late developing coastal, you have easterly winds for a while which warm up the surface. 

[Snowlover11]

So expect 0-20” Just kidding. It’s almost go time fellas. Enjoy what you get, remember a few days ago we where whiffing clouds.

[Snowman92]

How is the storm currently looking compared to model runs ?

[kat5hurricane]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Somehow cmc ensembles ran but anyways their a goooood hit

First of all, I didn't even know the CMC had ensembles. Second, the CMC has been pretty bearish on this event from the beginning so this is a big surprise.

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Don't trust the Nam right now 

It's not an apples to apples comparison for us though though sure there's some reason to be skeptical of its output 

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Don't trust the Nam right now 

Was going to post his video earlier. He's not wavering on his forecast. He's my go to Met. Watch his daily video every morning when I get to work and have my coffee at 5:45 am.

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Don't trust the Nam right now 

The NAM is prone to very large run to run swings, even in the short term and it usually overdoes everything which leads to wild solutions at times. I can think of only one event where it was very different from the consensus and ended up being right. Very few mets use it to make a forecast. It’s primarily fun to look at. It does have its usefulness but I certainly wouldn’t favor it over other guidance.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Was going to post his video earlier. He's not wavering on his forecast. He's my go to Met. Watch his daily video every morning when I get to work and have my coffee at 5:45 am.

Hes very intelligent 

[MJO812]

Mike Masco is also doubting that the Nam is right with the warming being too fast. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Glad Mt Holly lowered the totals back to a likelier range, the storm is just too amped and on an awkward track for Central / South Central NJ to properly cash in. I’m hoping this breaks positive for the city proper, they deserve it hardcore right now. 

Northern crew, enjoy what is hopefully a kickass storm! 

I’ll be around in the storm thread with updates from my location (the ass end of the metro as I affectionately refer to it), later guys. 

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mike Masco is also doubting that the Nam is right with the warming being too fast. 

Never heard of him? Will check him out.

[SnowGoose69]

The one reason I can argue the NAM may be wrong is almost every other model shows insane snow rates ahead of the changeover line.  If that happens it’s likely the NAM is too fast on the changeover to sleet 

[WestBabylonWeather]

News 12 Rich Hoffman saying 7-10 then 1-3 of sleet likely

 

if all snow 14

 

(LI)

[steve392]

58 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Do you work for Susquehanna?

No, nj transit.  Susquehanna is right by my house and hang out by the tracks occasionally. 

[allgame830]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The one reason I can argue the NAM may be wrong is almost every other model shows insane snow rates ahead of the changeover line.  If that happens it’s likely the NAM is too fast on the changeover to sleet 

Right. I briefly mention that last night with the insane rates prior to a changeover. It’s like the NAM just forgets it unlike all the other models that show 2-4” rates a couple hours prior to sleet. 

[Eduardo]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

News 12 Rich Hoffman saying 7-10 then 1-3 of sleet likely

 

if all snow 14

 

(LI)

Shave two inches from the snow component of this and I think it’s a solid forecast.

[allgame830]

Do you guys think beeline will run early like 9-930am? 

[Eduardo]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Don't trust the Nam right now 

Valid to a point.  There’s also no Atlantic Ocean bordering Arkansas….

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's not an apples to apples comparison for us though though sure there's some reason to be skeptical of its output 

Forky is usually spot on and has not provided an update from when stated " not worried high is in a perfect spot".

So until he changes.....

 

[Joe4alb]

HRRR coming in slightly colder

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, steve392 said:

No, nj transit.  Susquehanna is right by my house and hang out by the tracks occasionally. 

Oh. If you're in Stockholm, you must know Fred unfortunately. Lol

[Jt17]

HRRR coming in slightly colder

Looks about 10 miles north than 12z. Still would be great


.

[ag3]

You guys are nuts. This is a big time storm. 6”-10” of snow at the minimum and then a ton of sleet/snow mix. Likely 1”-2” 

[Joe4alb]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Looks about 10 miles north than 12z. Still would be great


.

yeah started off colder with the primary being weaker, but with the coastal being a bit stronger and closer to the coast, we end up about the same. 

[EasternLI]

18z HRRR snowfall from the model itself through 23z.