psv88 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, nycsnow said: Somehow cmc ensembles ran but anyways their a goooood hit Jesus. CMC would have been a snow bomb then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 28 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Jim cantore just mentioned this and was why he was concerned now with ZR in the city an south and east To his credit he did mention a couple days ago this had bust potential for DC through NYC due to more mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 19 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: They keep going lower and lower ever since yesterday as predicted by a lot of us, I still think they might go lower. This is fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller A Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: It’s not going to rain on LI (plain rain) outside of maybe Montauk. This kind of cold surface air won’t be dislodged unless we had a strong prolonged onshore flow. I could maybe see freezing rain for a time but the back half of this storm is probably sleet. NJ gets that prolonged onshore flow so south of Tom’s River it might really change to rain. I am hating being the dividing line here in TR. At this point I assume warm air wins. It always does and this means maybe 5” along the coast Would prefer a sleet fest over a slop fest. Both suck to clean, but at least it can give you that mood snow feeling I was in such a good mood a few days ago and now I feel foolish for thinking there would be no major changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Don't trust the Nam right now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Miller A said: I am hating being the dividing line here in TR. At this point I assume warm air wins. It always does and this maybe 5” along the coast Would prefer a sleet fest over a slop fest. Both suck to clean, but at least it can give you that mood snow feeling I was in such a good mood a few days ago and now I feel foolish for thinking there would be no major changeover Unfortunately with the late developing coastal, you have easterly winds for a while which warm up the surface. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 So expect 0-20” Just kidding. It’s almost go time fellas. Enjoy what you get, remember a few days ago we where whiffing clouds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman92 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 How is the storm currently looking compared to model runs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Somehow cmc ensembles ran but anyways their a goooood hit First of all, I didn't even know the CMC had ensembles. Second, the CMC has been pretty bearish on this event from the beginning so this is a big surprise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Don't trust the Nam right now It's not an apples to apples comparison for us though though sure there's some reason to be skeptical of its output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Don't trust the Nam right now Was going to post his video earlier. He's not wavering on his forecast. He's my go to Met. Watch his daily video every morning when I get to work and have my coffee at 5:45 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Don't trust the Nam right now The NAM is prone to very large run to run swings, even in the short term and it usually overdoes everything which leads to wild solutions at times. I can think of only one event where it was very different from the consensus and ended up being right. Very few mets use it to make a forecast. It’s primarily fun to look at. It does have its usefulness but I certainly wouldn’t favor it over other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Was going to post his video earlier. He's not wavering on his forecast. He's my go to Met. Watch his daily video every morning when I get to work and have my coffee at 5:45 am. Hes very intelligent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Mike Masco is also doubting that the Nam is right with the warming being too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Glad Mt Holly lowered the totals back to a likelier range, the storm is just too amped and on an awkward track for Central / South Central NJ to properly cash in. I’m hoping this breaks positive for the city proper, they deserve it hardcore right now. Northern crew, enjoy what is hopefully a kickass storm! I’ll be around in the storm thread with updates from my location (the ass end of the metro as I affectionately refer to it), later guys. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mike Masco is also doubting that the Nam is right with the warming being too fast. Never heard of him? Will check him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The one reason I can argue the NAM may be wrong is almost every other model shows insane snow rates ahead of the changeover line. If that happens it’s likely the NAM is too fast on the changeover to sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 News 12 Rich Hoffman saying 7-10 then 1-3 of sleet likely if all snow 14 (LI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 58 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Do you work for Susquehanna? No, nj transit. Susquehanna is right by my house and hang out by the tracks occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The one reason I can argue the NAM may be wrong is almost every other model shows insane snow rates ahead of the changeover line. If that happens it’s likely the NAM is too fast on the changeover to sleet Right. I briefly mention that last night with the insane rates prior to a changeover. It’s like the NAM just forgets it unlike all the other models that show 2-4” rates a couple hours prior to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: News 12 Rich Hoffman saying 7-10 then 1-3 of sleet likely if all snow 14 (LI) Shave two inches from the snow component of this and I think it’s a solid forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Do you guys think beeline will run early like 9-930am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Don't trust the Nam right now Valid to a point. There’s also no Atlantic Ocean bordering Arkansas…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's not an apples to apples comparison for us though though sure there's some reason to be skeptical of its output Forky is usually spot on and has not provided an update from when stated " not worried high is in a perfect spot". So until he changes..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 HRRR coming in slightly colder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, steve392 said: No, nj transit. Susquehanna is right by my house and hang out by the tracks occasionally. Oh. If you're in Stockholm, you must know Fred unfortunately. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 HRRR coming in slightly colderLooks about 10 miles north than 12z. Still would be great . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 You guys are nuts. This is a big time storm. 6”-10” of snow at the minimum and then a ton of sleet/snow mix. Likely 1”-2” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Looks about 10 miles north than 12z. Still would be great . yeah started off colder with the primary being weaker, but with the coastal being a bit stronger and closer to the coast, we end up about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18z HRRR snowfall from the model itself through 23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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