brooklynwx99 Posted Thursday at 04:39 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:39 AM CMC looks like a clear amped outlier so far at 00z... even then, it's still 6-8" for the metro with some mix at the end, which shows how good this setup is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 04:41 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:41 AM With that prolonged easterly fetch some of the spots in SENJ and EMA that are favored for ocean enhancement could approach 2" liquid - a lot of which could be frozen. Great to see both the ICON and UK well over 1" liquid across most of our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted Thursday at 04:41 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:41 AM What I really meant was that model forecasted long duration events most of the time don't come to fruition. I see them all the time advertise in models and yes, some do happen but most of the time it's not as long as the model is showing. I love long, duration events. Outside of total snowfall that is my second desire out of a snowstorm. If we get a 24+ our snowstorm out of this one will be super ecstatic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Thursday at 04:42 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:42 AM Several models hinting that coastal low lingers, if not strengthens somewhat and drops a few inches Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysoner Posted Thursday at 04:43 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:43 AM Can someone post UKIE Kuchera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamBig Posted Thursday at 04:43 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:43 AM Huge variation still in the placement and number of lows between umet and gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 04:44 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:44 AM 5 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Updated FWIW, I'm seeing about 1.3" for the UK and 1.1" for the GFS on Pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Thursday at 04:50 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:50 AM 38 minutes ago, TriPol said: Lee Goldberg said a higher chance of 12+ inches more North and West. I don't see that at all. If a more amped situation verifies than what we see now, you're going mix or changeover to sleet and rain and have about 4-6" less than an all snow solution would give you. And there are still 3 days of modeling prior to the onset of the storm. Normally solutions closer in time do get a little more amped but not always. We'll see. But I can totally understand where Lee Goldberg was coming from. WX/PT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 04:50 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:50 AM GEFS total QPF mean storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 04:56 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:56 AM Love the mounting evidence for a 1"+ liquid event. That's big dog stuff. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 04:58 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:58 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Thursday at 04:59 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:59 AM 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Interesting how we're getting so much from such a weak low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted Thursday at 05:14 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:14 AM 48 minutes ago, eduggs said: I feel like the CMC has been doing better than the GFS this year. It's purely anecdotal but I don't trust the GFS at all. GFS is known to suppress these types of storms. Always assume a little more amped with it, especially 72-96 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 05:14 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:14 AM 3 out of 30 GEFS members develop a significant and deepening coastal SLP on Monday between NJ and LI (like the 0z ICON) and extend precipitation into early Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted Thursday at 05:21 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:21 AM This storm takes on extra importance due to the prolonged cold after the event. Even though we want 1+ foot storms as often as possible, when it's going to be 46, 48, and 52 in the 3 days following, I am never super excited. This one is a potential dream!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted Thursday at 05:23 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:23 AM The euro is running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 05:25 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:25 AM euro 00z ai aifs yotal QPF storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 05:26 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:26 AM Euro AI AIFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted Thursday at 05:28 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:28 AM 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Euro AI AIFS How is this compared to the previous run or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 05:30 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:30 AM 1 minute ago, KeithB said: How is this compared to the previous run or two? 1 minute ago, KeithB said: How is this compared to the previous run or two? Looks fairly consistent to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Thursday at 05:31 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 05:31 AM Definitely some warm air issues at the coast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Thursday at 05:35 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 05:35 AM The fact that the EURO has been running for about 10 minutes and no one has really said anything is saying something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 05:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:35 AM This is the kind of NAM sounding that makes me nervous about sleet on Sunday. It's valid at 12z Sunday morning about 50 miles NW of Richmond, VA. Super cold surface & 850mb temps with 700mb temps -2C or -3C and the ptype is SLEET because of a pronounced warm layer near 750mb. The surface high can't save us from that. If the upper levels are amped and the mid-level lows which will track to our west are slow to weaken, our sounding could end up looking like that on Sunday afternoon/evening. That would be a bummer considering the depth of saturation through that column... would be a lot of QPF wasted as sleet. 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 05:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:35 AM H48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Thursday at 05:36 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:36 AM 1 minute ago, TriPol said: The fact that the EURO has been running for about 10 minutes and no one has really said anything is saying something. Only out to hr 66. No real changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeCTWX Posted Thursday at 05:37 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:37 AM 1 minute ago, TriPol said: The fact that the EURO has been running for about 10 minutes and no one has really said anything is saying something. It’s only our to hour 54 from what I can see and a lot of people are asleep lol. But ya the EURO AI would bring some sleet to the area around hr 93-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 05:37 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:37 AM 10 minutes ago, KeithB said: How is this compared to the previous run or two? It's more amped. Powerfreak gets crushed up at Stowe. That's usually not great for our area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 05:37 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:37 AM 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 1/22 00Z QPF - NYC ICON: 1.5 GFS: 1.2 GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9 GGEM: 1.2 (50% sleet) UKMET: 1.2 (90% snow) GEFS *mean: 1.1 Euro AI AIFS: 1.1 Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Thursday at 05:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:40 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 05:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:40 AM 2 minutes ago, OrangeCTWX said: It’s only our to hour 54 from what I can see and a lot of people are asleep lol. But ya the EURO AI would bring some sleet to the area around hr 93-96 it didnt seem like much with the snow 10:1 at over 11 inches in 1.1 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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