January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS

Ya got Gefs in there too post the other eps members 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Still shows the majority of solutions with the max across our south of us. Overamped scenarios are still in the minority.

Nah he got Gefs in there 

[JenkinsJinkies]

41 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I don’t hate it. It’s a beat down still

And there’s the catch. Fortunately it waits until the very end so the snow loss would be minimal. Call me a snob but I want an event like this to be wall to wall snow.

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

It’s not an atypical setup. People should know how these go for their backyards. Expect heavy snow, then sleet, probably a dry slot, then ULL love. 

The current look isn't the problem. The problem start if the trend north continues. Again. That's the concern. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

The current look isn't the problem. The problem start if the trend north continues. Again. That's the concern. 

lol yall are gluttons for punishment 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nah he got Gefs in there 

You're right. There are more overamped EPS scenarios, but the goal posts are still pretty wide.

[dailylurker]

Just now, mappy said:

lol yall are gluttons for punishment 

We only get a chance like every 10 years at a clean storm. We don't want to waste it on sleet. We can do that any winter lol. 

[mappy]

Just now, dailylurker said:

We only get a chance like every 10 years at a clean storm. We don't want to waste it on sleet. We can do that any winter lol. 

I get it. But yall wanted it further north hahaha 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

You're right. There are more overamped EPS scenarios, but the goal posts are still pretty wide.

Northern Maryland still in the uprights for now. 

[Weather Will]

Sorry I corrected the post too many models/ pictures.

[nj2va]

We’re under 100 hours from first flakes. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI very solid!

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol yall are gluttons for punishment 

Only those who haven’t waited to board the hype train.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS

 

 

More than acceptable, only like 5 ratters in there. 

[TSSN+]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS

 

 

I count like 6 too amped members which is about the same as 18z was. 

[Superstorm]

So 6z Euro has more QPF, better snow maps and is a touch colder and reading through here you would think it got....worse?

That’s because a lot of folks were asleep when we saw the 0Z data.


.

[RevWarReenactor]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI very solid!

Really only one panel P02, shows significant mixing issues. Good stuff. 

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I count like 6 too amped members which is about the same as 18z was. 

WB 6Z EPS about the same as 0Z.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

We only get a chance like every 10 years at a clean storm. We don't want to waste it on sleet. We can do that any winter lol. 

We have been pretty lucky with moderate to heavy(6-10") all snow events over the last several years on the coastal plain, including 2 last winter. Probably due for a snow to sleet deal. Hopefully not freezing rain.

[jayyy]

The feature which makes or breaks the storm is less than 60 hours from making its move out of the SW. Models should be able to better predict how quickly it ejects east and how it phases with the NS piece today.

[WxUSAF]

Obviously this is a very anomalous event, so maybe the usual rules don’t apply. But I’m keeping some otherwise very durable seasonal and La Niña patterns in my mind: short-term deamplification, suppressing SE ridge, destructive interference from the northern jet, and drier reality than modeled.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS about the same as 0Z.

You know who is going to say how that's a step back

[jayyy]

Obviously this is a very anomalous event, so maybe the usual rules don’t apply. But I’m keeping some otherwise very durable seasonal and La Niña patterns in my mind: short-term deamplification, suppressing SE ridge, destructive interference from the northern jet, and drier reality than modeled.

De-amping as we get to day 3-4 has been a trend all year. Let’s see how this one goes with an actual STJ component

[TSSN+]

If you are in central and southern Va get your supplies now, you may not have power for a while and brutal cold coming. Someone down there is getting a brutal ice storm. 

[BlizzardNole]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

My wife refused to move there cause no Costco despite 350000 house price difference

Mine refused the rolling hills of Frederick County, MD so we are moving to Calvert 

Hoping for one last super MoCo-HoCo band from this storm before I start hanging out on the lower southern MD/eastern shore thread

[Weather Will]

If DC gets a foot and the NW burbs get 2 feet, I am not sympathetic to those inside the Beltway.  I lived in PG for about 30 years, know the drill..  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

If DC gets a foot and the NW burbs get 2 feet, I am not sympathetic to those inside the Beltway.  I lived in PG for about 30 years, know the drill..  

Nobody asked, but thanks for this.  I feel complete for having read this.

[EastCoast NPZ]

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

This would right a lot of wrongs.

[CAPE]

Latest blend- snow and ice

[CAPE]

That will probably look a little different at 12z-a bit less snow/more ice for southern parts.