January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[batmanbrad]

might the CMC do the hand-off to a coastal like the ICON?

[SnowenOutThere]

Love the CMC look but agree we probably don't want to see anymore south shifts due to the SW being held back

[mitchnick]

Looks to be long duration too

[Terpeast]

We're still up for a model reshuffling probably 12z through 0z tomorrow. GFS is showing that it can still go either way, I just hope it's wrong and it'll cave back again.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

We're still up for a model reshuffling probably 12z through 0z tomorrow. GFS is showing that it can still go either way, I just hope it's wrong and it'll cave back again.

Gfs is pretty much always wrong 

[Scraff]

A wise person once told me that with these types of set ups, the Canadian does extremely well. Just sayin. 

[adelphi_sky]

What do the temps look like? Still sub 20 during the entire event then a drop after? 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Gfs is pretty much always wrong 

It seems like it's literally by itself 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

What do the temps look like? Still sub 20 during the entire event then a drop after? 

It is 16 degrees at 2PM in Baltimore, and Ocean City is in the mid 40s

[GreyHat]

44 minutes ago, yoda said:

Gimme gimme 

 

The potential problem I see here. Is the HPs are a lot weaker 1032 vice 1040. The HP is exiting NE over Maine, which is allowing this thing to come NE more and potential ice for Dover. If the modeling continues to move this system NNE there might be others in the ice for a time period. 

At least that is my none educated observation. 

[anotherman]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

It seems like it's literally by itself 

GFS and GFSAI

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

We're still up for a model reshuffling probably 12z through 0z tomorrow. GFS is showing that it can still go either way, I just hope it's wrong and it'll cave back again.

I was hoping with our 6z consensus we were out of the woods with the first phase handling out west. Agree that we still have to get through at least 0z tonight now... Additionally, the GFS coming to the normal solution before shifting back is worrying to me. Probably means we meet somewhere in the middle which would still be okay for us. 

[whiteout]

I think what we're seeing with CMC is similar to Euro. A little more hold in the energy provides the boom solutions, whereas too much of a good thing in that regard can render a GFS outcome. No one knows what will actually happen here, but the GFS has been a pretty bad model for quite some time. 

100% this right here. All in the timing/phase, which also allows the flow overtop the MA to relax some with the delay to help it North.


.

[T. August]

Interested to see the gefs. Hopefully the op doesn’t have too much support. There were quite a few members yesterday that showed exactly what the op just did.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs is pretty much always wrong 

I'm not letting it get me down, but I hate when it does this

[mob1]

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Thanks God on the GGem. So many, "it's south" posts and then it's a beatdown

Both can be (and actually is) true. The evolution is definitely a bit south and phasing occurs a hair later, but verbatim it's still a big hit. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

CMC is fantastic but it misses the full phase/tuck scenario.  But for the record I would sign for the CMC in a heartbeat. 

 

[MN Transplant]

GDPS is great, but I'd pump the brakes on HECS-level.  DC and north looks like it is <1" QPF.

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm not letting it get me down, but I hate when it does this

If the gfs was the only model showing a big snow at this range and other showed nothing would you think it was right? I’m still waiting on that blizzard it gave me last Thursday. 

[mitchnick]

And we love you too GGEM.

[clskinsfan]

Man the Eastern shore gets pounded this run of the CMC. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

GDPS is great, but I'd pump the brakes on HECS-level.  DC and north looks like it is <1" QPF.

Looks like 13 on Kuchera.   

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

GDPS is great, but I'd pump the brakes on HECS-level.  DC and north looks like it is <1" QPF.

We need the first phase to be nearly perfect with next to no southern energy left behind for a HECS. For 6z this looked like a good consensus but now with 12z shifting the other way I agree its time to put those talks on hold till we see which way it goes at 18z and 0z. 

[soadforecasterx]

150 pops a new coastal just off shore

[yoda]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like 13 on Kuchera.   

 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

 

Very icon-esque. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said:

150 pops a new coastal just off shore

yeah we get fantastic overrunning and a tad bit of coastal....if we can get that to capture/tuck that's the big dog scenario.

[mitchnick]

Doesn't stop until Monday morning or Noon.

[JenkinsJinkies]

6 minutes ago, Interstate said:

It is 16 degrees at 2PM in Baltimore, and Ocean City is in the mid 40s

That's the specific heat of water for you.

[TowsonWeather]

4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

GDPS is great, but I'd pump the brakes on HECS-level.  DC and north looks like it is <1" QPF.

15+ inches isn't HECS level?