TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS Ya got Gefs in there too post the other eps members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Still shows the majority of solutions with the max across our south of us. Overamped scenarios are still in the minority. Nah he got Gefs in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 41 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I don’t hate it. It’s a beat down still And there’s the catch. Fortunately it waits until the very end so the snow loss would be minimal. Call me a snob but I want an event like this to be wall to wall snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, mappy said: It’s not an atypical setup. People should know how these go for their backyards. Expect heavy snow, then sleet, probably a dry slot, then ULL love. The current look isn't the problem. The problem start if the trend north continues. Again. That's the concern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: The current look isn't the problem. The problem start if the trend north continues. Again. That's the concern. lol yall are gluttons for punishment 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Nah he got Gefs in there You're right. There are more overamped EPS scenarios, but the goal posts are still pretty wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, mappy said: lol yall are gluttons for punishment We only get a chance like every 10 years at a clean storm. We don't want to waste it on sleet. We can do that any winter lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, dailylurker said: We only get a chance like every 10 years at a clean storm. We don't want to waste it on sleet. We can do that any winter lol. I get it. But yall wanted it further north hahaha 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: You're right. There are more overamped EPS scenarios, but the goal posts are still pretty wide. Northern Maryland still in the uprights for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Sorry I corrected the post too many models/ pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 We’re under 100 hours from first flakes. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 6Z EURO AI very solid! 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, mappy said: lol yall are gluttons for punishment Only those who haven’t waited to board the hype train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS More than acceptable, only like 5 ratters in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS I count like 6 too amped members which is about the same as 18z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 So 6z Euro has more QPF, better snow maps and is a touch colder and reading through here you would think it got....worse?That’s because a lot of folks were asleep when we saw the 0Z data.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO AI very solid! Really only one panel P02, shows significant mixing issues. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I count like 6 too amped members which is about the same as 18z was. WB 6Z EPS about the same as 0Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, dailylurker said: We only get a chance like every 10 years at a clean storm. We don't want to waste it on sleet. We can do that any winter lol. We have been pretty lucky with moderate to heavy(6-10") all snow events over the last several years on the coastal plain, including 2 last winter. Probably due for a snow to sleet deal. Hopefully not freezing rain. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The feature which makes or breaks the storm is less than 60 hours from making its move out of the SW. Models should be able to better predict how quickly it ejects east and how it phases with the NS piece today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Obviously this is a very anomalous event, so maybe the usual rules don’t apply. But I’m keeping some otherwise very durable seasonal and La Niña patterns in my mind: short-term deamplification, suppressing SE ridge, destructive interference from the northern jet, and drier reality than modeled. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS about the same as 0Z. You know who is going to say how that's a step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Obviously this is a very anomalous event, so maybe the usual rules don’t apply. But I’m keeping some otherwise very durable seasonal and La Niña patterns in my mind: short-term deamplification, suppressing SE ridge, destructive interference from the northern jet, and drier reality than modeled.De-amping as we get to day 3-4 has been a trend all year. Let’s see how this one goes with an actual STJ component 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 If you are in central and southern Va get your supplies now, you may not have power for a while and brutal cold coming. Someone down there is getting a brutal ice storm. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 26 minutes ago, Ji said: My wife refused to move there cause no Costco despite 350000 house price difference Mine refused the rolling hills of Frederick County, MD so we are moving to Calvert Hoping for one last super MoCo-HoCo band from this storm before I start hanging out on the lower southern MD/eastern shore thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 If DC gets a foot and the NW burbs get 2 feet, I am not sympathetic to those inside the Beltway. I lived in PG for about 30 years, know the drill.. 2 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: If DC gets a foot and the NW burbs get 2 feet, I am not sympathetic to those inside the Beltway. I lived in PG for about 30 years, know the drill.. Nobody asked, but thanks for this. I feel complete for having read this. 2 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 38 minutes ago, mitchnick said: This would right a lot of wrongs. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Latest blend- snow and ice 8 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 That will probably look a little different at 12z-a bit less snow/more ice for southern parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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