January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Fozz]

This is really a phenomenal storm underway, and even better it’s coming exactly a decade (plus a few days) after the incredible 2016 blizzard.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Fozz said:

This is really a phenomenal storm underway, and even better it’s coming exactly a decade (plus a few days) after the incredible 2016 blizzard.

And 26 years to the date of the 1/25/00 miracle.

[midatlanticweather]

I am going to be the Debbie downer here... all season(last year) we have been seeing big precip events start drying up as the event approached... I know here we have southern system involvement, but any concerns here? We had like 1 overperformer rain event in the last year and most have been way less than forecast. Gives me pause this far out. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

This is really a phenomenal storm underway, and even better it’s coming exactly a decade (plus a few days) after the incredible 2016 blizzard.

26 years to the day of Jan 25, 2000

Ninja'd by double d

[Fozz]

29 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Hecs’ are just different. It requires cars to be barely visible.

I remember Dec 2009 brought around 19” IMBY and then Feb 6 2010 dropped 25”.

The latter storm felt much bigger and more of a beast. Not to downplay the December storm but Feb 2010 (even the first storm) was just a different league.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

I am going to be the Debbie downer here... all season(year) we have been seeing big precip events start drying up as the event approached... I know here we have southern system involvement, but any concerns here? We had like 1 overperformer rain event in the last year and most have been way less than forecast. Gives me pause this far out. 

 

We haven't had the MJO shift to Niño phases until now.

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I am going to be the Debbie downer here... all season(last year) we have been seeing big precip events start drying up as the event approached... I know here we have southern system involvement, but any concerns here? We had like 1 overperformer rain event in the last year and most have been way less than forecast. Gives me pause this far out. 

 

This is not a northern stream event so no. If it kicks out that energy it’s game on. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

I am going to be the Debbie downer here... all season, we have been seeing big precip events start drying up as the event approached... I know here we have southern system involvement, but any concerns here? We had like 1 overperformer rain event in the last year and most have been way less than forecast. Gives me pause this far out. 

 

Completely understand but at some point dry streaks end. Perhaps this is it

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ending my brief crashout - unless the EURO comes in and scares me. GEFS is fine. Drier. No real south shift.

Damn, you're worse than me.  I get annoyed when the GFS is on board, but I ain't crashing out about it.   

*but yeah, the GEFS does make me feel better.  Shhh

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I am going to be the Debbie downer here... all season, we have been seeing big precip events start drying up as the event approached... I know here we have southern system involvement, but any concerns here? We had like 1 overperformer rain event in the last year and most have been way less than forecast. Gives me pause this far out. 

You're not a deb, you're raising several legitimate issues. As others have said, this event has ingredients incorporated that other storms have not had: favorable MJO phase, southern stream energy, strong boundary. Caution is certainly advised, but this is the best snow setup we've had in years.

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I remember Dec 2019 brought around 19” IMBY and then Feb 6 2010 dropped 25”.

The latter storm felt much bigger and more of a beast. Not to downplay the December storm but Feb 2010 (even the first storm) was just a different league.

Oh yea Dec 09 was tier 2 compared to Feb 10.

[stormtracker]

Euro has begun....good luck.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Oh yea Dec 09 was tier 2 compared to Feb 10.

It’s kinda crazy too because it was a historic top “couple” DEC storms of all time for our region and 20” totals in plenty of spots, and it happened relatively easy. There wasn’t a ton of sweat in that tracking either minus the little north creep at the end to really get everyone. 

[bncho]

Euro AI

[LeesburgWx]

As much as we agree the GFS is, just that, the GFS, I know everyone in here is on pins and needles after the 12z GFS run.

EDIT: While we wait for the euro

[weathercoins]

12 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I am going to be the Debbie downer here... all season(last year) we have been seeing big precip events start drying up as the event approached... I know here we have southern system involvement, but any concerns here? We had like 1 overperformer rain event in the last year and most have been way less than forecast. Gives me pause this far out. 

 

I think this one just has a different underlying setup than what we have seen recently.  Bust potential more likely that it stays south with no (relevant) phasing.  

[Terpeast]

Just now, bncho said:

Euro AI

Crept north based on MSLP low position 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Euro AI

Cut down on duration. Doesn’t last as long as 6z precip shield not really any more south. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Euro AI

6" - 10" Mason-Dixon to I-66 to US 50. Up to a foot south of that. Nice.

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

As much as we agree the GFS is, just that, the GFS, I know everyone in here is on pins and needles after the 12z GFS run.

EDIT: While we wait for the euro

I am not singling you out... but having 20 people post this is getting old.

[stormy]

7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I am going to be the Debbie downer here... all season(last year) we have been seeing big precip events start drying up as the event approached... I know here we have southern system involvement, but any concerns here? We had like 1 overperformer rain event in the last year and most have been way less than forecast. Gives me pause this far out. 

 

You are a very smart and reasonable person.  Those can be preciously rare commodities.  

Regarding all the rants about the GFS,  I gave fair warning of this possibility 2 hours ago.

I believe the 12z run is probably little more than a blip since the GEFS did not follow suit.

We will see at 18z.

[Amped]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro AI

Richmond jackpot, lock it in.

[bncho]

Okay, 12z Euro ass hair differences, but the Baja low is more closed at hr 45. We'll see what happens.

[stormtracker]

So far so good on the Euro...some noise level stuff...baja s/w may be 50 miles further wnw of 6z position

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Okay, 12z Euro ass hair differences, but the Baja low is more closed at hr 45. We'll see what happens.

I got this one.   You bound to post a CMC map from 12z Yesterday

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, Brianonymous said:

As a long time observer of weather nerds, don't forget what usually happens:

1 - model run makes big snows, joy reigns.. festivity.. happiness

2 - a subsequent, single model takes snow away. panic, sadness, tribulation... calls for winter cancel

3 - model brings back snow

4 - profit

We are at 1.5 - just saying, brace yourselves  

 

The issue we also seem to have is that the speed of movement is missed on models. That speed = how much snow falls. They tend to be longer on the runs than in actuality (My Deb downer hat is on today!)

 

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

let Randy do this

For once I agree - we need only one person doing PBP. the CMC and GFS were a disaster to read/follow this AM.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EURO AI basically noise level changes, still a great MSLP track for us and potential upside if it can slow down and get some coastal influence.

[stormtracker]

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

EURO AI basically noise level changes, still a great MSLP track for us and potential upside if it can slow down and get some coastal influence.

Yup. Nothing major. Best snowstorm for many in a decade and it's warning level for everyone with no precip issues.