January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

Where are yall seeing UK maps?

pivotal has them 

12z snow, 10:1

[yoda]

Zoomed in 10:1

 

Kuchera 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, paulythegun said:

Man say what you will about the UK but it has been extremely steady on both precip max and distribution since yesterday. 

[LeesburgWx]

So ICON, GGEM, UKIE against GFS so far

[DDweatherman]

If the euro does at 12z what it was cooking at 6z when the run ended, it’ll look similar to those UK maps.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z UKMET is a legitimate HECS regionwide, just wow. The GFS really seems to be on its own thus far. It's over 24" for @HighStakes, @wxmvpete, @psuhoffman and @mappy.

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is on crack, moving on. CMC, ICON, and UKMET are all looking euro-esque

[peribonca]

jma holding back the Baja low a bit too...

[clskinsfan]

UKIE has been consistent for days at this point. Lets hope it's correct. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, peribonca said:

jma holding back the Baja low a bit too...

Bro stop.. lol 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

So ICON, GGEM, UKIE against GFS so far

The sole purpose of the Gfs is to torment JI.

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

So ICON, GGEM, UKIE against GFS so far

Yup so.  Basically the usual lol

[winter_warlock]

If euro and Euro AI show what ukie showed them I think it's safe to say the GFS and it's partner the AI are outliers 

[adelphi_sky]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

So ICON, GGEM, UKIE against GFS so far

It comes down to does the GFS lead trends or follows? But I think going from around an inch of QPF to zilch in one run? Would this be the mother of all blips when other models are consistent?

[NorthArlington101]

Ending my brief crashout - unless the EURO comes in and scares me. GEFS is fine. Drier. No real south shift.

[WxUSAF]

Euro, EuroAI, GGEM, Ukie, and Icon are all phasing in the northern shortwave with some or all of the Baja low. So you get this extended duration event with coastal redevelopment that enhances snow in the RIC-PHL corridor and then lets NYC-BOS join the party. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Ending my brief crashout - unless the EURO comes in and scares me. GEFS is fine. Drier. No real south shift.

It's a de-amplified run. To see the ensemble mean push 6"- 10" regionwide as a "fail" is still a sign of a potentially healthy event.

[SnowenOutThere]

[GreyHat]

23 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Very icon-esque. 

Disagree as the ICON has the system NE more with ice.

 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ending my brief crashout - unless the EURO comes in and scares me. GEFS is fine. Drier. No real south shift.

Lol wow it's amazing how different the GFS op run is from its own ensembles!!! Ridiculous!!

[TSSN+]

Anyone have the link to model verification? I want to see how bad the gfs is on a chart. Their used to be an ncep link but the one I have says it’s temporarily unavailable. 

[MillvilleWx]

As @Eskimo Joealluded to above, the fact the GEFS is still showing warning level snowfall on a mean after what we saw from its deterministic partner is a positive attribute to have at this lead. The other guidance seems steady with its presentation which should also solidify the prospects for a MECS. Models can have hiccups and the GFS is no stranger to them. This is still a very good looking setup with some important pieces still not even fully materialized yet. We’ll see some model discontinuity on occasion until every player is on the field of North America and it begins to play out. If the EC suite comes in similar in its presentation last succession of runs, then it’s all systems are a go, still. 

[TowsonWeather]

4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Lol wow it's amazing how different the GFS op run is from its own ensembles!!! Ridiculous!!

If you look at the ensemble members it's easy to see what's happening. The majority look a lot like the UKIE, CMC, etc. (although not quite as amped). 

But there are a handful of members that give us basically nothing - they all kind of look the same. I'm assuming these are the ones leaving the energy stuck back in the SW and missing any kind of phase. Those members are really skewing the average quite a bit.

[adelphi_sky]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

As @Eskimo Joealluded to above, the fact the GEFS is still showing warning level snowfall on a mean after what we saw from its deterministic partner is a positive attribute to have at this lead. The other guidance seems steady with its presentation which should also solidify the prospects for a MECS. Models can have hiccups and the GFS is no stranger to them. This is still a very good looking setup with some important pieces still not even fully materialized yet. We’ll see some model discontinuity on occasion until every player is on the field of North America and it begins to play out. If the EC suite comes in similar in its presentation last succession of runs, then it’s all systems are a go, still. 

When will everything be in scope (on the field)? Thursday? 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

As @Eskimo Joealluded to above, the fact the GEFS is still showing warning level snowfall on a mean after what we saw from its deterministic partner is a positive attribute to have at this lead. The other guidance seems steady with its presentation which should also solidify the prospects for a MECS. Models can have hiccups and the GFS is no stranger to them. This is still a very good looking setup with some important pieces still not even fully materialized yet. We’ll see some model discontinuity on occasion until every player is on the field of North America and it begins to play out. If the EC suite comes in similar in its presentation last succession of runs, then it’s all systems are a go, still. 

Well said. One other item worth mentioning is that as we near an event, the "extreme" solutions tend to fade. If that happens, you see the few rogue 20"+ ensemble members come back to reality and that can tweak the ensemble mean downward. This translates to people thinking the event is "falling apart" when in fact it's just leaning towards a moderate/significant incident versus and major/historic.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

As @Eskimo Joealluded to above, the fact the GEFS is still showing warning level snowfall on a mean after what we saw from its deterministic partner is a positive attribute to have at this lead. The other guidance seems steady with its presentation which should also solidify the prospects for a MECS. Models can have hiccups and the GFS is no stranger to them. This is still a very good looking setup with some important pieces still not even fully materialized yet. We’ll see some model discontinuity on occasion until every player is on the field of North America and it begins to play out. If the EC suite comes in similar in its presentation last succession of runs, then it’s all systems are a go, still. 

I was coming here to say this. GEFS didn’t really move apart from noise level changes. Op was probably one of the few members that held the sw back too much. 

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ending my brief crashout - unless the EURO comes in and scares me. GEFS is fine. Drier. No real south shift.

I was also having a bit of a crash out from some Feb 20th flashbacks with that GFS run. Though with the GEFS still looking that solid we're fine unless the Euro tries to ruin our lives. Just want to see the GFS move back to us at 18z and we'll be all good. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I was also having a bit of a crash out from some Feb 20th flashbacks with that GFS run. Though with the GEFS still looking that solid we're fine unless the Euro tries to ruin our lives. Just want to see the GFS move back to us at 18z and we'll be all good. 

We all know the gfs won’t catch on till hour 6

[Fozz]

34 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

15+ inches isn't HECS level?

For DCA (due to its low bias) and southern MD, maybe. But generally I’d put the bar at 18”.

The old rule of thumb is top 10 snowstorm on record.

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

For DCA (due to its low bias) and southern MD, maybe. But generally I’d put the bar at 18”.

The old rule of thumb is top 10 snowstorm on record.

Hecs’ are just different. It requires cars to be barely visible.