January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[BlizzardNole]

9 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

That ice map for parts of the south is awful and would rival our 1994 disaster.  People could lose power for a long time

 

[LeesburgWx]

I can’t wait for 40-50” totals from the NAM soon. Getting close to getting in range but keeps getting delayed slightly

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

What do you think the cap is for this storm? Why is the Euro solution less snowy than solutions like the UK?

Cap for this storm if everything pans out is probably a bit above the 12z Ukmet. Now, of course, I don't think thats the likely cap but it is probably near the theoretical cap. Likely cap is probably something like the 6z Euro with a foot and a half area wide plus area wide. The reason the euro is less snowy is the interaction with the NS goes differently than the Ukmet. On the Ukmet it actually stretches the vorticity out while still helping the eastern part of it generate a strong low pressure.

This is why the Ukmet is pretty far south with its mixing line. However, it manages to also have insane moisture transport from this whole stretching business. 

I mean lmao it has the jet streak start over the Pacific and a secondary right entrance quadrant over us. Couldn't ask for much better. Meanwhile the 6z Euro actually has a cleaner phase out west. 

Eventually it all wraps up in one big vorticity ball and comes east. This is what allows it to climb the coast and make people like @brooklynwx99 very happy. However, for us it's "worse" because 1. mixing line is further north and 2. for us it technically doesn't have quite the same moisture fetch from the Pacific and the double left exit region/rear entrance region lift combo. 

Overall I think that sums up the differences pretty well. They key reason for all this btw is that the Ukmet is faster with the SW which allows it to have that messy NS interaction. It also means our storm starts and ends before the Euro does the same. Ultimately I think both solutions are great though ofc I would prefer the Ukmet (and to some extent think a messy phasing thing out west is more likely). I'll make a more in depth post after the 12z runs come it. 

 

 

[mitchnick]

25 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I was just wondering about this last night - thanks for going back and finding it.

I seriously remember being at dinner on Valentines Day and checking the 18Zs (yes, really), and even though it looked fine, you could feel what was about to happen as ECMWF shifted south. 

So if we make it through today... maybe I can actually start feeling some confidence in this thing? 

P.S. My friend the MOGREPS, so this isn't just a banter post: 

Note the trajectory is more sw/ne. That's great to see.

[winter_warlock]

I know we will have the heavy snow and the cold temps in teens.. but I. Curious if we will have high enough winds to reach blizzard criteria anyone seen and wind data for this storm?

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Note the trajectory is more sw/ne. That's great to see.

That's a prime setup for us to win big time.

[Nomz]

4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I know we will have the heavy snow and the cold temps in teens.. but I. Curious if we will have high enough winds to reach blizzard criteria anyone seen and wind data for this storm?

Not really a big bomb setup so we don’t have a blazing 850mb jet. Maybe 10kt or so.

[mitchnick]

At 81hrs, Nam incredibly similar to 6z Euro

[Scraff]

8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I know we will have the heavy snow and the cold temps in teens.. but I. Curious if we will have high enough winds to reach blizzard criteria anyone seen and wind data for this storm?

How bout we get it to snow first, worry about winds later. 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

At 81hrs, Nam incredibly similar to 6z Euro

Yeah…wish we had the dgex to finish that run hah

[MDScienceTeacher]

Not often do you see the Positive Snow depth change end up greater than the total accumulation:





I feel like this really accentuates the potential this storm brings with the cold air dynamics/ snow growth.

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

At 81hrs, Nam incredibly similar to 6z Euro

E/E rule!

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

E/E rule!

I learned from DT way back when that you don't go against the E/E rule.

[SnowenOutThere]

In a tech free classroom from now till 10:50 good luck to everyone tracking! Someone dm me what the gfs does

[TowsonWeather]

49 minutes ago, bncho said:

What do you think the cap is for this storm? Why is the Euro solution less snowy than solutions like the UK?

The Euro solution isn't necessarily less snowy, it's just slower (at least the 6Z run). There's more to come - possibly much more to come - after 144.

[stormy]

52 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

That ice map for parts of the south is awful and would rival our 1994 disaster

A $5,000 disaster for my trees was November, 2018

[stormtracker]

The audacity of this place that gives me a check for working expecting me to work on a day like today.  Busy morning, but calming down.  

NAM looks good...now we await the king of models...the ICON

[LeesburgWx]

SE forum accusing us of wish casting that this comes north…

[DDweatherman]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

SE forum accusing us of wish casting that this comes north…

This is banter, they can say whatever they want. Just like what Webb was doing yesterday, save us the trouble. We're looking at synoptics and quite literally reporting on what the trends are. 

[StormyClearweather]

Oh hello

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The audacity of this place that gives me a check for working expecting me to work on a day like today.  Busy morning, but calming down.  

NAM looks good...now we await the king of models...the ICON

Currently in a PI refinement session. I tried to start the convo off talking about the upcoming snowstorm. Worked for a couple mins…but yea, paychecks are important, too.

[Eskimo Joe]

With so many events, we tend to see the 06z guidance waffle or dry up. With the 06z Euro et al beefing up, it's a great sign. We're almost at the point where a "fail" would only be 4" - 8".

[feloniousq]

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

SE forum accusing us of wish casting that this comes north…

If they're in line for an inch of ice they should be wishing for it too.

[dallen7908]

52 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I was just wondering about this last night - thanks for going back and finding it.

I seriously remember being at dinner on Valentines Day and checking the 18Zs (yes, really), and even though it looked fine, you could feel what was about to happen as ECMWF shifted south. 

So if we make it through today... maybe I can actually start feeling some confidence in this thing? 

P.S. My friend the MOGREPS, so this isn't just a banter post: 

Thanks for the post.  As some of you are aware, MOGREPS-G is the global ensemble system run by the UK Met Office.   A quick check shows that it is run every 6 hours for 7 days and has 18 members.  The snow map mean is an average of 36 members (the last two cycles).  To increase dispersion, additive inflation is used, i.e., flow-dependent perturbations, with a structure similar to what has been observed in the past,  are added to the members as they are running.

Additive inflation is one of the techniques being used to add diversity to ensemble results. 

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

This is banter, they can say whatever they want. Just like what Webb was doing yesterday, save us the trouble. We're looking at synoptics and quite literally reporting on what the trends are. 

You don’t say? Of course we are looking at Synoptics. In any case, we know how these things play out in the days before. I prefer where we sit way more than them.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

Oh hello

That is an incredibly bullish NBM output right here. As is, this is probably closer to the 50-70th percentile outcome. The 75-90th percentile is likely 20-25% more on top of that. I’ll be around following today, but I got errands to run later, some of which involves around preparing for this monster. Really like where we stand right now. 

[yoda]

Ok all, let's not bring in what other places are saying.  Let's focus on our region please

[Nomz]

5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

SE forum accusing us of wish casting that this comes north…

We'll point at models, they'll point at synoptics and everyone will weenie-out

[Disc]

13z NBM Probabilities of 48hr snowfall exceeding 12"

Washington: 66%

Baltimore: 59%

Hagerstown: 50%

Fredericksburg: 70%

Winchester 58%

Charlottesville: 75%

Leesburg: 58%

Richmond: 75%

Roanoke: 70%

Lynchburg: 75%

Norfolk: 52%

[JakkelWx]

6 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Oh hello

Good lord. Never seen it that high here