First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think I’d go 3-6/4-7 here. Don’t think the dynamics are there for lots of 6-8 type amounts. Maybe that changes, but subtle trend overnight of reducing the “curl” in the vort as it passes by. 

Yeah I noticed that. Hence the pull back. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You too .See you on the other side after the pull back 

Well just stating like Will said too. Anyways good luck. Getting off for some time. 

[moneypitmike]

time to put down the models and look at radar and out your windows.

Good luck to all.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well just stating like Will said too. Anyways good luck. Getting off for some time. 

Well good luck out East. Honestly hope you guys get hit hard . Take care 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I noticed that. Hence the pull back. 

The one thing that looks really good though is ratios might be excellent later in the system if NAM soundings have any clue. Esp later tonight/overnight/early AM. Even the IVT stuff with low level lift is in the DGZ and could produce some fluff. Something to watch. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The one thing that looks really good though is ratios might be excellent later in the system if NAM soundings have any clue. Esp later tonight/overnight/early AM. Even the IVT stuff with low level lift is in the DGZ and could produce some fluff. Something to watch. 

Hanging it back . All the way 

[dryslot]

24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Snowing lightly in PVD.  Radar showing the band about to tickle Mattapoisett.

Meanwhile, GYX even is calling for 4-6" up at Pit2 tonight.

2" or so puts me at 40+" on the season.

[Spaizzo]

Ever so light snow falling in ansonia


.

[moneypitmike]

40 minutes ago, dryslot said:

2" or so puts me at 40+" on the season.

Nice.  We had picked up another .5" after I posted my report yesterday for a total of 4".  By my mental math, I think you're about 5" or so ahead of me going into today.  Much of that difference being you cleaning up with the inverted trough before Christmas.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I noticed that. Hence the pull back. 

Jesus dude. What pull back? This was like a 6” deal max, so now it’s like 5 lol. Enjoy the snow, at least it’s going to be more than an inch of slop, which most of our events have been 

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Jesus dude. What pull back? This was like a 6” deal max, so now it’s like 5 lol. Enjoy the snow, at least it’s going to be more than an inch of slop, which most of our events have been 

This was always a 2-5, spot 6 type of deal. maybe someone surprises with higher

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I think the box map looks pretty good to be honest, widespread 4-6” pretty much across the board. 

We definitely lost the slightly juicier solutions that were doing 6-8”, but not a huge difference.

I do think someone in maybe an Attleboro to Easton area could do 6 or 7” and box has also highlighted that potential 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

This was always a 2-5, spot 6 type of deal. maybe someone surprises with higher

Yeah, he will do fine, 4-6” for most IMO. Like I said in my previous post, man’s someone does 7”’ somewhere from like Attleboro to Easton 

[Kitz Craver]

Scooter is wounded, I’ve never seen a weenie so down with imminent snow inbound 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Scooter is wounded, I’ve never seen a weenie so down with imminent snow inbound 

For sure. He seriously needs to pull back/take a break. He’s a mess. 

Been snowing here since about 7:00 or so. Steady and beautiful.   
 

I mean he’s worse than T Blizz now, at least Brett is happy about the storm, as you should be if you love winter weather. 

[Typhoon Tip]

that was supposed to be roughly SE NY to SE NH  ... it's been in the models, even as near as yesterday.  It seems to be situated a considerable error from where it was modeled to be, certainly for just 24 hours - 

little leery of this being an omen for all this business ending up SE. 

i don't.  at this point i have issue fatigue with this event.  almost suffice it is to say that i just give a shit what it does anymore.  hahaha.  no but i think even a 3 or 4" thing is still a relative win - obviously being that it is not a complete whiff, and it would pull those ai solutions back to reality.  kind of a compromise 

we'll see

[dryslot]

May not even have to take the tractor out again today, Looks like a bit of a messenger shuffle.

[weatherwiz]

4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

What are you using Cobb11? im assuming not maxT in profile which is kuchera. 

If referring to bufkit, both are separate. If you’re using cobb11 it’s deriving the snow ratios from 5 or 6 products. 

If you choose maxT in profile you can adjust the max temp to compute different ratios 

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, dryslot said:

May not even have to take the tractor out again today, Looks like a bit of a messenger shuffle.

RGEM was rough.

[dendrite]

GFS a little tick east again too. May not get much more than a few tenths here with the inv trough.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

RGEM was rough.

Saw this coming last night, I never got onboard this had a west limit once this was spread out and just weak waves of LP along the boundary.

[BombsAway1288]

This is not gonna be good for the general public’s perception of weather forecasts in this city. This is gonna be another short-term bust.    What is with the near-term modeling this season? Flow too fast?

At least it looks entertaining in the long-term

[8611Blizz]

Most mets here sticking with 3-5,3-6. Some  mentioned higher possibilities...

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

This is not gonna be good for the general public’s perception of weather forecasts in this city. This is gonna be another short-term bust.    What is with the near-term modeling this season? Flow too fast?

At least it looks entertaining in the long-term

Some of the mesos are still good down there. We just don’t know.

[wx2fish]

33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

RGEM was rough.

Definitely was east but COD seems a little low compared to pivotal. 0.5" on .2" qpf for MHT

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Definitely was east but COD seems a little low compared to pivotal. 0.5" on .2" qpf for MHT

Good catch. They were having an issue with the precip maps of the CMC products awhile back. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

May not even have to take the tractor out again today, Looks like a bit of a messenger shuffle.

Probably or maybe tomorrow.

[dendrite]

Last 4 runs of the AIFS ENS for the 18z-18z period beginning today. Not that any model has done well, but do we consider this a good performance?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Last 4 runs of the AIFS ENS for the 18z-18z period beginning today. Not that any model has done well, but do we consider this a good performance?

Not very good in short term. It def kicked the operational’s butts though in that D3-5 period. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Last 4 runs of the AIFS ENS for the 18z-18z period beginning today. Not that any model has done well, but do we consider this a good performance?

RIP Messenger