First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[WxWatcher007]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

RRFS gets warning snows to HVN

Going to be drama all the way to the end. 

[dryslot]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah NNE has been fooled by a zonked 12k run late in the game many a time.

Looks like the rgem is a tick east.

Head fakes, This one seems to be just a tease, Glad i invested not much with this.

[vortex95]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just unreal...can see where this is going. One event just NW of me, and the other just south.

This area sucks rotten horse balls.

Can these stupid models make up their mind??  They have been oscillating back and forth for days w/ this system and the snow shield SE sections!  What is it w/ this pattern that is making something that should be straightforward a challenge.  It not like it is a monster sfc low!

Oh, and the reason for the problem BL temps?  Look at the 42 hr NAM sfc/pcpn fcst I attached.  Um, no high pressure anywhere to N of us.  Just  low pressure, so no CAD!  How often do you see that w/ a low pressure off the East Coast moving NE???
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, vortex95 said:

Can these stupid models make up their mind??  They have been oscillating back and forth for days w/ this system and the snow shield SE sections!  What is it w/ this pattern that is making something that should be straightforward a challenge.  It not like it is a monster sfc low!

Oh, and the reason for the problem BL temps?  Look at the 42 hr NAM sfc/pcpn fcst I attached.  Um, no high pressure anywhere to N of us.  Just  low pressure, so no CAD!  How often do you see that w/ a low pressure off the East Coast moving NE???
 

I'm sure it will be negative 20 under clear skies the following week.

[DavisStraight]

52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean it’s not like you’d be missing much from either event.

Right, it's not like a monster dumping 2-3 feet in the ocean. I want to see a 15-20 inch storm this year. Been awhile.

[40/70 Benchmark]

PIA system....I combined them into a two-part event.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/01/first-final-call-for-two-part-nuisance.html

First & Final Call:

[dendrite]

Looks like the goofus will come in a little more amped

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Looks like the goofus will come in a little more amped

Cape graze. Very frustrating 

[Spaizzo]

Looks like the goofus will come in a little more amped

One storm will be right like the NAM with Nemo lol


.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Ai gfs continues its cave. Another tick weaker and SE

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian weaker and SE.

Please spare me the 1” of slop. I’d rather nothing 

[8611Blizz]

[Baroclinic Zone]

Pretty sizable shift on 00Z GEFS. Advisory snows in SEMA.

[Spanks45]

I should be sleeping, instead I took a glance at the new RAP...sheesh, could that model find that nut already? Man what a run...

[wxsniss]

0z EC AIFS actually small tick NW compared to 18z, but did not regain the big hit that was 12z... still advisory most of SNE, warning southeast of Plymouth 

0z EC also small tick NW... but mostly nuisance low-end advisory outside of Cape