First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It was fairly obvious the AI models were going to cave 

[vortex95]

One item that stands out to me for the Sat event, when was the last time you saw that much snow forecast by the models w/ a sfc low passing well N in Quebec and sfc winds blowing the "wrong way" (SW) for a widespread accumulating snowfall, esp, in SNE?  I can't recall an event quite like this.  And the trough/sfc low is rather MEH.

It seems counterintuitive, but the 18z HRRR and RRFS are in excellent agreement (snowfall 10:1 totals attached).  Kuchera ratios are better for the higher elevations, showing up to a foot in srn VT.  That is remarkable, given the synoptic setup!

The odd and piecemeal/selective winter for New England snow events continues, and ern MA centered near Weymouth continues to be "flanked" on all sides, missing out on most events, while other areas are not doing too bad for seasonal snowfall, all things considered.

And to add insult to injury, another oddity.  It is the coldest time or the year, and a storm goes OTS, yet there are BL temp issues for ptype over SE MA and RI for the precip that makes it in?!  This is what happens on Sun.  W-T-F???!!!    Maybe I shouldn't have said that, just drags down CoastalWx more! 
 

[amarshall]

Ha I have that one too.

Got to be circa 2010


.

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro AI starting to cave a bit

[ineedsnow]

still not a bad hit for many though

[ORH_wxman]

These are slow moves by 18z Skynet. I wonder if it’s going to just be slow caves each run from here or if we get a full rug-pull on one of these runs tonight. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

These are slow moves by 18z Skynet. I wonder if it’s going to just be slow caves each run from here or if we get a full rug-pull on one of these runs tonight. 

I expect a rug pull at 00z to be honest. Feels like 18z is laying the ground work 

[Snowcrazed71]

So it seems the AI models are learning, they're learning to come back to reality with the tried and true lol ( joking of course ) maybe things stay the course. Maybe they don't. I guess we'll know by tomorrow night what the final outcome will be for Sunday

[dendrite]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

So it seems the AI models are learning, they're learning to come back to reality with the tried and true lol ( joking of course ) maybe things stay the course. Maybe they don't. I guess we'll know by tomorrow night what the final outcome will be for Sunday

They’re learning that it’s fun to troll weather weenies

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

These are slow moves by 18z Skynet. I wonder if it’s going to just be slow caves each run from here or if we get a full rug-pull on one of these runs tonight. 

the EC-AI was about a 40-50 mile jog east, but actually not too different than its 18z/0z/6z runs from yesterday/today. 0z will be telling but its clear it won't head back in the other direction (west). 

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Got to be circa 2010


.

Yup

[J Paul Gordon]

WWA up for my area (Clinton, MA) with 2-4, but I'm not sure whether that's tonight and tomorrow or Sunday. Temperatures--especially tomorrow seem marginal, at best.

[ORH_wxman]

OP euro might actually have ticked a little better. 

[ineedsnow]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They’re learning that it’s fun to troll weather weenies

If I was a weather model I would 

[8611Blizz]

Enough.  Can't take the wobbles... give me the standard C-2 and be done with it.

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Enough.  Can't take the wobbles... give me the standard C-2 and be done with it.

Prob a good forecast. Unless you’re down further SE where there’s a chance for more. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Canadians and skynet versus everyone else. 

 

Maybe we can pull a Miracle on Ice 1980 out of our ass....this winter has been about on par with '79-'80. 

Yea, I posted the composite juxtaposition with this season earlier...my futility year- 19.9".

[HoarfrostHubb]

56 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

WWA up for my area (Clinton, MA) with 2-4, but I'm not sure whether that's tonight and tomorrow or Sunday. Temperatures--especially tomorrow seem marginal, at best.

That’s for the first system.   

[Damage In Tolland]

Who will get snow on snow this weekend 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I posted the composite juxtaposition with this season earlier...my futility year- 19.9".

Yeh I was gonna respond and forgot…but eerily similar if you just look at relative heights…gotta adjust for era, but those ‘79-80 heights relative to eachother are pretty close to this year so far. Go figure, I used to post that map as an example of a decent winter pattern where we just got boned. Happens again 46 years later. 
 

Maybe we’ll break the bad juju with this two week stretch coming up where we’ll have plenty of chances. But if we roll snake eyes during that too….we can throw this winter into the wood chipper. Irredeemable at that point. I’d revert myself to hoping for an exotic HECS in March. 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who will get snow on snow this weekend 

Probably nobody.  Though ironically your area is prob the best chance even though you also have the best chance of getting shutout (actually prob just barely to your east has the best shot at getting shutout from both…like Windham county up 495 belt)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

One item that stands out to me for the Sat event, when was the last time you saw that much snow forecast by the models w/ a sfc low passing well N in Quebec and sfc winds blowing the "wrong way" (SW) for a widespread accumulating snowfall, esp, in SNE?  I can't recall an event quite like this.  And the trough/sfc low is rather MEH.

It seems counterintuitive, but the 18z HRRR and RRFS are in excellent agreement (snowfall 10:1 totals attached).  Kuchera ratios are better for the higher elevations, showing up to a foot in srn VT.  That is remarkable, given the synoptic setup!

The odd and piecemeal/selective winter for New England snow events continues, and ern MA centered near Weymouth continues to be "flanked" on all sides, missing out on most events, while other areas are not doing too bad for seasonal snowfall, all things considered.

And to add insult to injury, another oddity.  It is the coldest time or the year, and a storm goes OTS, yet there are BL temp issues for ptype over SE MA and RI for the precip that makes it in?!  This is what happens on Sun.  W-T-F???!!!    Maybe I shouldn't have said that, just drags down CoastalWx more! 
 

There is that classic gradient...5 miles north of my house.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeh I was gonna respond and forgot…but eerily similar if you just look at relative heights…gotta adjust for era, but those ‘79-80 heights relative to eachother are pretty close to this year so far. Go figure, I used to post that map as an example of a decent winter pattern where we just got boned. Happens again 46 years later. 
 

Maybe we’ll break the bad juju with this two week stretch coming up where we’ll have plenty of chances. But if we roll snake eyes during that too….we can throw this winter into the wood chipper. Irredeemable at that point. I’d revert myself to hoping for an exotic HECS in March. 

That is the last real notch left to get on this shit period's belt for me...consistent shitty seasons, but no really futility contenders like the late 80's early 90s....let's just get that out of the way this year and be done with it.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Probably nobody.  Though ironically your area is prob the best chance even though you also have the best chance of getting shutout (actually prob just barely to your east has the best shot at getting shutout from both…like Windham county up 495 belt)

So hold up . I have the best chance of zero snow or snow on snow . Kev.. swallow the uzi or pull the trigger. Thanks for the vote of confidence 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

These are slow moves by 18z Skynet. I wonder if it’s going to just be slow caves each run from here or if we get a full rug-pull on one of these runs tonight. 

To be honest, the AIGFS ticked southeast at 18 Z a little bit… I looked at the clock and I’m seeing 60 hours to go before game time. Yeah that’s 10 cycles plenty of time to cave.

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

To be honest, the AIGFS ticked southeast at 18 Z a little bit… I looked at the clock and I’m seeing 60 hours to go before game time. Yeah that’s 10 cycles plenty of time to cave.

We should set up a pool…$10 on which cycle.