Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[franklin NCwx]

51 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

For kicks and giggles I asked copilot for a snowfall forecast and this is what it gave me. No wake county dry slot per se but realistically paints the near misses that define El Ninos in the carolinas

It also has redrawn the state borders of the  SE

[Avdave]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

For kicks and giggles I asked copilot for a snowfall forecast and this is what it gave me. No wake county dry slot per se but realistically paints the near misses that define El Ninos in the carolinas

Geography isnt chats strong point but you get the point lol

 

[wncsnow]

Not ideal

[eyewall]

On 9/2/2026 at 9:02 PM, Avdave said:

Geography isnt chats strong point but you get the point lol

 

Well done lol. 

[Justicebork]

I can't wait for that to appear in a GIS and show up on twitter represented as fact.

[Met1985]

On 9/5/2026 at 8:34 AM, wncsnow said:

Not ideal

Going to have to go through more heat probably until October. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Hope

[WinstonSalemArlington]

On-schedule 
 

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Midnight Moon]

Just a matter of time.   

[WinstonSalemArlington]

 

[BooneWX]

Never ending summer 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

The end is nigh

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Tuesday

 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Tuesday

[Wow]

August Part 2

[kvegas-wx]

36 minutes ago, Wow said:

August Part 2

The snowbirds are starting to migrate, my mower blades are ready to be sharpened and fall festivals are upon us. The writing is on the wall temps wise.  We just have to squint a bit to see it.  

[yotaman]

21 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

The snowbirds are starting to migrate, my mower blades are ready to be sharpened and fall festivals are upon us. The writing is on the wall temps wise.  We just have to squint a bit to see it.  

Us near-sighted people can't see anything yet.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Pysche!

 

[BooneWX]

It’s going to be one of those years where we push this heat well into October and when the flip happens, it happens fast. Regime change meets active southern jet and suddenly you go from 80s/90s and dry to 50s and rain. I’m not saying it’ll be an early kick off to winter, but I wouldn’t be shocked if come Halloween, it feels more like late Nov/early Dec with no warning. 

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

It’s going to be one of those years where we push this heat well into October and when the flip happens, it happens fast. Regime change meets active southern jet and suddenly you go from 80s/90s and dry to 50s and rain. I’m not saying it’ll be an early kick off to winter, but I wouldn’t be shocked if come Halloween, it feels more like late Nov/early Dec with no warning. 

Isn't that pretty normal for El Nino if I remember correctly?

[BooneWX]

8 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Isn't that pretty normal for El Nino if I remember correctly?

Funny you ask that - I was thinking randomly about October 2018 when it hit 90° multiple days in the lower elevations and I have pictures of me fly fishing with no waders like 2 weeks before Halloween. Also an El Niño year. A month and a half after wet wading, we had the big behemoth snowstorm of Dec 8/9 hit WNC.  I remember the flip being harsh and the leaves still being in the infancy phase of changing colors as we flipped to Thanksgiving temps. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Little back door front tomorrow will be quite nice for NC peeps but SC and Ga will have to wait 

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Funny you ask that - I was thinking randomly about October 2018 when it hit 90° multiple days in the lower elevations and I have pictures of me fly fishing with no waders like 2 weeks before Halloween. Also an El Niño year. A month and a half after wet wading, we had the big behemoth snowstorm of Dec 8/9 hit WNC.  I remember the flip being harsh and the leaves still being in the infancy phase of changing colors as we flipped to Thanksgiving temps. 

Fall 2019 was similar, at least in turns of a long, drawn-out, hot fall with a sudden dramatic change in mid/late October.  The heat wave culminated in the infamous "100 degree day" at RDU on October 3 (one of the first times I remember skepticism on this site with RDU being at least 2 degrees warner than any other site in the area).  Within a relatively short amount of time after a 100 degree day, there were flurries somewhere in the state.

[Met1985]

6 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Funny you ask that - I was thinking randomly about October 2018 when it hit 90° multiple days in the lower elevations and I have pictures of me fly fishing with no waders like 2 weeks before Halloween. Also an El Niño year. A month and a half after wet wading, we had the big behemoth snowstorm of Dec 8/9 hit WNC.  I remember the flip being harsh and the leaves still being in the infancy phase of changing colors as we flipped to Thanksgiving temps. 

That was a great storm. 

[olafminesaw]

[BooneWX]

Apparently the Canadian recently had an update, which is why I thought it’d be relevant to share this. 

[NC_hailstorm]

I never expect cooler weather anyways till the first 5 or 10 days of October,

September for the most part is still warm and humid here but on occasion you do get lucky and it cools sooner.

[jpbart]

I am hoping for slightly less above normal until mid October.  The high 90's to 100's have been rough especially with the humidity we have been getting.  I think 2009 it was hot until Halloween and then it fell on it's face and got cold?  I hope we get slightly less hot sooner than that.

[kvegas-wx]

Tomorrow morning is going to feel amazing here in GSO.  Fortunately I have a few days off to begin fall prep.  I think we are all at the point where just a whiff of fall air is enough to tie us over into October.  

I like this idea being kicked around from prior Nino years of a fast pattern flip.  I could live with that.  But not at the expense of losing fall weather.  My biggest fear is going from 80s to 40s overnight.