marsman Posted July 26 Share Posted July 26 1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: July Nor’easter Interesting. Sub-tropical or just a tad too far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Nor'easter in July? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Severe outbreak in late July? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 I will be chasing this tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 35 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Severe outbreak in late July? HRRR sounding in the triad Tuesday evening. I do kinda wonder if upper level wildfire smoke will tamp down the potential somewhat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 27 Author Share Posted July 27 Craving a Manitoba Mauler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 27 Author Share Posted July 27 Just now, BooneWX said: Craving a Manitoba Mauler I want it to dig to Galveston before it starts gaining latitude again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted July 27 Share Posted July 27 Question for tomorrow. Do we see increased cloud cover late morning and early afternoon? Or do we clear out? That's gonna be the deciding factor. Girlfriends flight lands around 8pm tomorrow evening at the charlotte airport. Might get interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 And a last second major wild card for this evening has shown. Heading SSE, this could thwart the severe threat for a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 36 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: And a last second major wild card for this evening has shown. Heading SSE, this could thwart the severe threat for a lot. Looks like this will weaken and by this afternoon around 2 things should start heating up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 NWS Raleigh mentions the possibility of it being a reduced threat to the west. I plan on chasing today if necessary from Raleigh northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 hour ago, eyewall said: NWS Raleigh mentions the possibility of it being a reduced threat to the west. I plan on chasing today if necessary from Raleigh northeastward. SPC UPGRADED tornado probabilities for the CLT area and NE up to 5%. I didnt see that one coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 6 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: SPC UPGRADED tornado probabilities for the CLT area and NE up to 5%. I didnt see that one coming. It's an unstable environment. You can definitely tell that from the storms firing this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 The main issue I am seeing right now is fairly extensive cloud cover coming out of VA. I am not sure how much we will destabilize given that factor. Shear will not be the problem here. The clouds will be. That has me concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: The main issue I am seeing right now is fairly extensive cloud cover coming out of VA. I am not sure how much we will destabilize given that factor. Shear will not be the problem here. The clouds will be. That has me concerned. The HRRR/hires NAM have basically no convection after the MCS rolls through outside of far Eastern NC. It's not looking good TBH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The HRRR/hires NAM have basically no convection after the MCS rolls through outside of far Eastern NC. It's not looking good TBH Yeah I am seeing that too. We may be cooked here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 I think the threat is subsiding because of upstream convection/cloud cover. There might be some chance in southern and eastern areas but the MCV is holding together quite well and on models with the stronger storm look this afternoon it was already weakening more than it has. Think the main threat is probably eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Substantial cloud cover in CLT, it appears the initial line is currently has slowed it's build to the south and may slide east of CLT. Question after that becomes "will the cloud cover dissipate?" More scattered light showers behind the main line that may make into CLT, but the mountains appeared to have done their normal thing and shredded the western flank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Yeah I am seeing that too. We may be cooked here. Latest HRRR is much more promising FWIW probably more run of the mill borderline severe but something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 28 Author Share Posted July 28 I think the likelihood is actually increasing for the western part of nc. It may take cams a bit to catch on but the sun is fully coming out with plenty to go upstream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Just now, BooneWX said: I think the likelihood is actually increasing for the western part of nc. It may take cams a bit to catch on but the sun is fully coming out with plenty to go upstream. Yeah sun is coming out here as well. Heating up in no time. Actually clear skies over me now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Severe thunderstorm watch for Gaston county until 8. Man is it humid outside today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 It certainly cleared up in a hurry. Full sunshine in Raleigh now. Wonder if the atmosphere can destabilize in time to take advantage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted July 28 Author Share Posted July 28 Fwiw Rufus seems to have a better handling on the convection rn. At least when comparing the most recent runs of RRFS vs HRRR at 3 pm and the the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Skies in charlitte started clearing up around noon and have been in full sunshine since. The one lone cell looks like the cloud deck is over NE of Meck Co moving SE so charlotte proper looks to have full sun til go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 First tornado warning south of Bluefield, WV Guess we can go ahead and say Tornados may actually be possible thus evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Even with sun the atmosphere has stabilized considerably over central NC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Even with sun the atmosphere has stabilized considerably over central NC Yep, no go here. Can’t even get a cumulus cloud to pop. Just feels stable out. That area in SW NC might be in the game though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 First NC tornado warning for today. Heavy cloud cover in CLT once again. About to head to the airport and hang out for a bit and watch it roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 21 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: First NC tornado warning for today. Heavy cloud cover in CLT once again. About to head to the airport and hang out for a bit and watch it roll in. Tornado OTG confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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