yotaman Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 9 hours ago, SUNYGRAD said: I believe an all-time of 104 is in jeopardy in Greensboro either JULY 3rd or the 4th, we shall see- I believe the highest temperature ever recorded in Raleigh, North Carolina was 106 °F which occurred just two years on July 5, 2024. New Bern is also 106 but it occurred in 1950's. It has been awhile since we hit 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Not cool. Not cool at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 This is the highest I have ever seen in my point and click: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 It will be interesting to see how high heat indices are too. One thing that could keep temps down a few degrees is any thunderstorms or complexes----but this could increase the heat index some-----even with some daytime mixing. I think the highest I saw several years ago was 122 F down/around Fayetteville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Daily records for Raleigh-Durham Airport Temperature Records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 41 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said: It will be interesting to see how high heat indices are too. One thing that could keep temps down a few degrees is any thunderstorms or complexes----but this could increase the heat index some-----even with some daytime mixing. I think the highest I saw several years ago was 122 F down/around Fayetteville. More of a (relatively) dry heat/strong cap to prevent convective complexes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: More of a (relatively) dry heat/strong cap to prevent convective complexes. Hmmmm. This for the 2nd, not the 3rd or 4th. Hard to pinpoint local or even moving clusters at this point going into the 3rd or 4th, let alone one model output this far out. Day of or overnight should/could have more bearing on indices is what I was thinking earlier. Agree dry some, but my opinion is this is not particular strong CAP given the LI, PW. Temperature slight increase. Some marginal instability around -2 with LI. I believe some of the other modeling that I looked at has some convection for the 3rd and 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Let it be known that literally no one called for this..... but we will for sure take it. What a beautiful surprise this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 6 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: Let it be known that literally no one called for this..... but we will for sure take it. What a beautiful surprise this morning. Glad for you all that are getting the rain! Much needed. We missed it by about 20 miles. Hopefully we get some tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 The latest Euro and Icon are suggesting that H5 heights will reach a max of ~598 dm at some point over GSO within the July 1-3 period. They have as much as 597 dm as of 8AM. A 597 would more than likely be approaching the all time record high for there at 12Z, which often runs a couple of dm lower than an afternoon max. For comparison, it reached ~597-598 dm at GSO at 12Z on 7/7/1986 per old maps I saw yesterday. I have no way of knowing if that’s the highest on record at 12Z though without spending at least many hours going through numerous maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 That heat building from the west for a July 4 torch fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 9 hours ago, GaWx said: The latest Euro and Icon are suggesting that H5 heights will reach a max of ~598 dm at some point over GSO within the July 1-3 period. They have as much as 597 dm as of 8AM. A 597 would more than likely be approaching the all time record high for there at 12Z, which often runs a couple of dm lower than an afternoon max. For comparison, it reached ~597-598 dm at GSO at 12Z on 7/7/1986 per old maps I saw yesterday. I have no way of knowing if that’s the highest on record at 12Z though without spending at least many hours going through numerous maps. Looks like Top ten. Here's the data https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimov2/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 12 hours ago, olafminesaw said: More of a (relatively) dry heat/strong cap to prevent convective complexes. Yes I agree. There wont be too many storms popping up with that kind of reading or and even through the upcoming furnace blast. Definitely will be some records that will be set though. Stay hydrated everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 "The combination of strong subsidence, lack of clouds, dry ground, and a downslope low and mid level flow - could potentially yield a near historical heat event bringing very dangerous conditions. Some guidance is now forecasting a few disturbances in the NW-N flow aloft riding into the region by Friday and Saturday the 4th. This may be enough to trigger either widely scattered or scattered (20-30 percent chance) of afternoon or early nighttime thunderstorms perhaps bringing some temporary cooling." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 5 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said: "The combination of strong subsidence, lack of clouds, dry ground, and a downslope low and mid level flow - could potentially yield a near historical heat event bringing very dangerous conditions. Some guidance is now forecasting a few disturbances in the NW-N flow aloft riding into the region by Friday and Saturday the 4th. This may be enough to trigger either widely scattered or scattered (20-30 percent chance) of afternoon or early nighttime thunderstorms perhaps bringing some temporary cooling." Doughts can create that kind of a feedback loop for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 9 hours ago, Avdave said: Yes I agree. There wont be too many storms popping up with that kind of reading or and even through the upcoming furnace blast. Definitely will be some records that will be set though. Stay hydrated everyone National Weather Service Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 Generally hard to forecast in advance, sometimes even during the event, but this weather pattern going into next week reminded me of Derechos. Rather good reading and understanding of aspects of them here- Facts About Derechos - Very Damaging Windstorms. There are other weblinks within this document too. Hard to say if anyone in some of the target areas, including NC, will see one----just something to be mind of. I do remember the 2012 event here in parts of NC, but do not recall any noteworthy events since then----at least here? One thing I learned is the definition has recently updated for Derecho- 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 New lemon off SE coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted June 27 Author Share Posted June 27 23 minutes ago, GaWx said: New lemon off SE coast: A huge wildcard in the forecast. I think we’d all welcome the drought and heat relief it would bring. Google (GOAT) DeepMind is enticing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Definitely still a brutal GFS run through next weekend and perhaps even drier than the previous one. It is not doing anything with the lemon offshore. Falls Lake after yesterday's rainfall. Each tenth would represent 1.2 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 There are some storms over Falls Lake now so hopefully that can help a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Falls Lake after yesterday's rain saw a little bump. I assume it will drop again during the heatwave but the bleeding has stopped temporarily: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 My phones weather app doesn't have a single day at 100 or above for CLT now. (Yes I know its not accurate but hey Im trying to be positive lol) There is like 4 99 degree days in a row on there so not much difference but it beats the 103 and 104's that were being posted last week that I haven't really seen any of lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 On 6/25/2026 at 7:06 PM, GaWx said: Some of this is almost certainly the GFS doing GFS kinds of things (i.e., too hot especially after day 5). The GFS does this frequently in summer. It could easily be 5-10 F too hot. I’d bet heavily against it being this hot. Quite hot is likely but not this hot. Bump to show that once again the GFS looks like it is going to end up quite a bit too hot: Here is an apples to apples comparison with 24 hour highs on the GFS runs of 12Z 6/25 vs 6Z 6/29: still miserable and dangerous for sure but most of Carolinas are 5-9F less hot! This is a common bias of the GFS in summer in the SE US on mainly sunny days. 12Z 6/25 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5: 6Z 6/29 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 Our latest point and click in Raleigh: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 On 6/27/2026 at 12:15 PM, BooneWX said: A huge wildcard in the forecast. I think we’d all welcome the drought and heat relief it would bring. Google (GOAT) DeepMind is enticing. The new (12Z) UKMET has nothing from the lemon designated as a weak TD, unlike the prior 3 full runs. However, Pivotal’s UK maps still have just about the same as a weak TD (a closed weak sfc low) along a similar track. It approaches SC late on 7/2 and comes into SC with hardly any circ. but with strong and persistent convection for S SC on 7/3-4 with a max of a whopping 9” 35 miles W of CHS before the convection heads NE up the Carolinas’ coast 7/5-6. That very heavy precip though is a major outlier vs other models and thus is highly unlikely as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 3 hours ago, GaWx said: Bump to show that once again the GFS looks like it is going to end up quite a bit too hot: Here is an apples to apples comparison with 24 hour highs on the GFS runs of 12Z 6/25 vs 6Z 6/29: still miserable and dangerous for sure but most of Carolinas are 5-9F less hot! This is a common bias of the GFS in summer in the SE US on mainly sunny days. 12Z 6/25 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5: 6Z 6/29 GFS 24 hour max ending 0Z 7/5: I've noticed RAH does a poor job of picking up on the warm bias the GFS and Euro have. Always seem to be a few degrees warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 7 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I've noticed RAH does a poor job of picking up on the warm bias the GFS and Euro have. Always seem to be a few degrees warm Thanks. But otoh, doesn’t the hot RDU sensor, itself, often end up verifying warmer unlike everywhere else? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EarlGrey Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 WRAL firecast. Falls lake will completely dry up now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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