Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[HKY_WX]

As wow said, no words needed on this one.... Like when a 10 walks in the room. But it is a Miller A/B hybrid. So we will likely battle ice or a changeover in NC. Classic split flow pattern out west. STJ wave with Arctic HP in place. Still a long way out. Would like to get this one inside of 5 days before getting overly excited. Checkout president's day 2 storm back in 2023 for a pattern comparison. But colder.

[SnowDawg]

Seems like BAM and a few others aren’t buying the southern shift for next weekend and think it’ll be more of a southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley system. Up until those 12z runs I definitely thought the same, that next weekend would largely be north of us and a stage setter for multiple chances in the week that follows. 

[wncsnow]

16 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Seems like BAM and a few others aren’t buying the southern shift for next weekend and think it’ll be more of a southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley system. Up until those 12z runs I definitely thought the same, that next weekend would largely be north of us and a stage setter for multiple chances in the week that follows. 

BAM has been struggling lately. But I too thought it was a better setup for the mid Atlantic. We'll see what happens from here on out. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[andyhb]

That is a catastrophic ice storm on the 12z Euro for this region and particularly Atlanta.

[NC_hailstorm]

22 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Seems like BAM and a few others aren’t buying the southern shift for next weekend and think it’ll be more of a southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley system. Up until those 12z runs I definitely thought the same, that next weekend would largely be north of us and a stage setter for multiple chances in the week that follows. 

There's a -4 to -5 AO and a 1045-1050 high,that's most of it in my opinion.

[lilj4425]

I’ll start the storm thread.  

[Jimbo!]

I started a thread for fun


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Hallelujah 

[cheapdad00]

3 hours ago, suzook said:

That would shut this area down for a week. I would rather it be sunny and 70 than more than 2 inches of freezing rain. Trees and power lines would be down, with no power for a week or more. 

Freezing rain accretion is rate dependent, so if the precipitation is heavy enough, much of it washes away, instead of icing trees and power lines.

[buckeyefan1]

7 minutes ago, cheapdad00 said:

Freezing rain accretion is rate dependent, so if the precipitation is heavy enough, much of it washes away, instead of icing trees and power lines.

As depicted that's not washing away. That's a low/mid 20 deg catastrophic ice storm 

[wxdawg10]

Very strong signals this far out. Cold appears to be in place before the storm arrives.  I doubt the wide spread foot of snow across the carolinas verifies but 3-5 inches feels like a good bet

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

Thru Next Sunday at 7 PM

The WxBell Euro AI ensemble snow maps have to be using faulty algos. Here’s proof:

 From today’s 12Z Euro AI ens, this is member #38’s 6 hour snow map for hours 270-276 showing a blob of a foot of snow in the Gulf 300 miles from the N Gulf coast meaning an avg of 2”/hour over 6 hours lmao:

 

 That right there is proof enough that the snow algos are screwed up bigtime. But fwiw, I’ll also show the temp anomalies for hours 270 and 276 for that member:

 

Member #38 temp 2m anom hour 270:

 

Member #38 temp 2m anom hour 276:

 

Those temp maps show that the coldest it is during hours 270-6 where it has that snow blob is only ~8 BN. The SST there now is ~77F. That means that the air temp during the supposed snow is likely no colder than ~65F. There’s no way it could snow a foot way out in the Gulf, much less while air temps are 65F+.

Conclusion: There is a major algo issue with these Euro AI ensemble snow maps. Thus, I’d be very wary about using them. Even snow weenie Bastardi criticized them. EPS ens snow maps are fine, but not Euro AI ens snow maps.

@donsutherland1

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[franklin NCwx]

37 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

As depicted that's not washing away. That's a low/mid 20 deg catastrophic ice storm 

Probably more of a sleet deal than freezing rain.

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Probably more of a sleet deal than freezing rain.

I had Augusta/Aiken/Columbia flashbacks of destruction watching that run  

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Which model verified best for today’s event in your eyes? I feel like the Euro AI did really well but I may be wrong. 

I’m not sure. But near the bottom was the regular Euro as it was last to trend NW with the track. It kept the snow centered near the coast for so long.

[olafminesaw]

Doesn't get much better than that