snowfan Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 I think I'd actually be more concerned if Osfan was excited about this one. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Its not over. There are 12 more more model runs between now and Friday. I can guarantee that significant changes await. They may be east and they may be west, or northwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Yeah just like last weekends storm was in NC on Tuesday. We saw how that worked out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps updated....meh Its going the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Correct me if I am wrong but I don't there is any scientific basis behind comparing how models handled other storms. "Last storm trended west, so that must mean this one will". Is almost like saying "the last two coin flips were tails, so the next one probably will be too". Yet so many people repeat it on here. 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Yeah it’s a miss for most to the east now, but not by that much. Also GEFS just trended the other way. It’s only Tuesday… We are relying on some very intricate interactions and phasing of streams. Tiny adjustments make a big difference. At least there’s something to track 2 days after getting an area wide storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintrest Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Its going the wrong way. Not the most encouraging trend. To note, there does not appear to be great member agreement on the low placement. AI EPS agreement is much closer to the coast, with a few major outliers way far out to sea skewing the group. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, nj2va said: We are relying on some very intricate interactions and phasing of streams. Tiny adjustments make a big difference. At least there’s something to track 2 days after getting an area wide storm. Yeah I’ll be watching for changes til at minimum 12z tomorrow. Pretty loaded situation in terms of potential. Models are swinging around run to run still so I don’t discount the possibility of big changes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I will say this - I agree it is probably dead for the metro area(s). Sure, coastal/eastern sections are still in the game. But one huge caveat here...I know with remote sensing the whole "data sparse regions" argument is less valid - however, when we are dealing with some pretty small scale changes that can make big changes, I would probably at least mentally keep one eye on this until the s/w hits the west coast and the energy up in Canada (which is a mess of stuff flying around) is sampled/resolved better. I don't think it's going to make any huge shifts...but there might be a point where it gives us a little glimmer of hope here in the DC/Baltimore areas. Again...I think this is probably not the one for us here in the corridor...but just saying - there is still some data to be sampled by the upper air network that *might* contribute to changes. But as I said above - the ensembles all still look pretty solid into February. If the blocking really does recycle - we will probably get another chance or two to make bank. There are absolutely NO guarantees in this. I'm sure @Maestrobjwa will confirm this at this point. Nobody is "owed" snow. If it happens, it happens...if it doesn't, well it doesn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ifindppl Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 What a great line: Nobody is "owed" snow. I bet there are a few on this forum who disagree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It’s still Tuesday, it’s not Thursday/Friday, models are bound to shift. It’s only a matter of what direction. If it is still OTS by that point, then we can conclude it is going that way. While GFS and Euro showed more OTS—the 12z WeatherNext 2.0 yesterday still showed snow over our region and not OTS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 32 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Definitely disappointing. On the back of this past weekend storm and with the crazy cold we have had, a huge blizzard would have vaulted this winter into rare territory and given it a chance to be one of the best ever. I think we need to get out of this La Niña stuff. We’re either getting storms with too much warm air intrusion from 850 to 700 or fast moving NS systems that aren’t digging early enough (too much ridging out west?). Need a pattern that allows these components to play nicer together. Feels like it usually points back to downstream blocking. The main causes of that would make for an interesting research topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 You would think this was New England reading some of these more recent posts. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Unless this thing does a Jan 2000 it’s gonna be hard to get what we were hoping for Just a lot of things hinge on exact location of N stream. When we have to thread needles stats show we hit as well as pitchers do in baseball 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Next window of interest feb 5-7 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Next window of interest feb 5-7 Why do you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why do you say? WB 6Z AIEPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 41 minutes ago, stormy said: Its not over. There are 12 more more model runs between now and Friday. I can guarantee that significant changes await. They may be east and they may be west, or northwest. Summed it up well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 WB 6Z EURO AI EPS for the weekend. 12% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, MickeyTim6533 said: guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us I’m giving it until Thursday night to agree. Not out of desperation, just knowing that anything can happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said: guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us Yes sir 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I am as frustrated as anyone. sometimes this is how it goes 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 10 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said: guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us lol you must be new here. We track threats in winter. Why would we take a break? This is fun for us even when they don’t trend the way we want. We take a big break from about March 15 to Nov 15 every year. 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 WTF, DEB’s around here…perhaps you need the break. This is a weather forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 12 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said: guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us 4 14 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: lol you must be new here. We track threats in winter. Why would we take a break? This is fun for us even when they don’t trend the way we want. We take a big break from about March 15 to Nov 15 every year. And besides, they are acting like the projected storm is going to happen tonight lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Yes sir 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: never before has someone flown onto my ignore list so quickly. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 14 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said: I am as frustrated as anyone. sometimes this is how it goes Stay safe in Reading, PA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordBaltimore Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 TERRAIN! TERRAIN! PULL UP! PULL UP! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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