January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

yea euro is garbage

Getting close to the mute button… 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Getting close to the mute button… 

Do it. You’ll feel so much better

[bncho]

The Euro is a big step to the GFS. We're SO CLOSE. If the PV backs off and that kicker leaves us alone, which is more plausible than I thought, we have a real chance on our hands. 

[Ji]

as i said--the euro made improvments at 500mb but its garbage. which moron said it showed 3-6 inches?

[TSSN+]

Just now, bncho said:

The Euro is a big step to the GFS. We're SO CLOSE. If the PV backs off and that kicker leaves us alone, which is more plausible than I thought, we have a real chance on our hands. 

Just need the sw to dig a bit more there. The lows a little too far nw. But I mean that was a big jump so gfs might have legs. 

[brooklynwx99]

the main differences between the GFS and the ECMWF are that the kicker on the ECMWF is more defined, hurting amplification, and the TPV is also closer to the trough. we'll see how those features trend

overall, though, they are actually pretty similar from a synoptic standpoint now

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO and GFS pressure maps.

[rjvanals]

12z Euro AI gave us snow next weekend curious what this will bring 

[TSSN+]

Idk about you all but I’m cracking open a beer for 18z happy hour. 

[Ji]

euro hates the 2nd event too---its the ultimate Dr no. Luckily, i think its been a garbage model this season. When it does show yes..its always been wrong

[WesternFringe]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

stop doing what? that is a significant move towards a more amplified solution... definitely much more than I thought was going to happen

Ignore him and please don’t stop doing that.  The whole board would rather you post more and Ji post less.

[baltosquid]

Biggest takeaway from 12z is that we’re headed in the right direction. Doesn’t seem like anything trended badly. Curious to see the EPS-AIFS and EPS; an increased coastal signal would make me feel a lot better that we’re catching the start of a trend and not a blip.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Ignore him and please don’t stop doing that.  The whole board would rather you post more and Ji post less.

Wow..

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro is close but without cold air we’re relying on the storm bombing out in the right spot to bring in enough cold air, like the GFS shows. 

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the main differences between the GFS and the ECMWF are that the kicker on the ECMWF is more defined, hurting amplification, and the TPV is also closer to the trough. we'll see how those features trend

overall, though, they are actually pretty similar from a synoptic standpoint now

Seems like the GFS has a better look in the Canadian plains as well.

[Blizzard of 93]

The good difference in the 12z Euro vs. the 0z Euro last night shows well in the 48 hr. total precipitation through Friday early afternoon.

Quite the positive jump.

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro hates the 2nd event too---its the ultimate Dr no. Luckily, i think its been a garbage model this season. When it does show yes..its always been wrong

Shut the fuck up

[TSSN+]

Main take is euro made a pretty big move toward a gfs like solution. Onto 18z 

[mappy]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Shut the fuck up

I get that it’s his schtick but jfc

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Shut the fuck up

That’ll never happen unless forced to. 

[Terpeast]

Both euro and cmc shifted towards gfs this run. Let’s keep this going. 

[dailylurker]

Looks like the Euro is starting the cave to the gfs. LFG!

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the main differences between the GFS and the ECMWF are that the kicker on the ECMWF is more defined, hurting amplification, and the TPV is also closer to the trough. we'll see how those features trend

overall, though, they are actually pretty similar from a synoptic standpoint now

Do you have a side by side of this with the 6z Euro? (Trying to see if those features you pointed out trended better and I don't have the pretty maps, lol)

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Both euro and cmc shifted towards gfs this run. Let’s keep this going. 

Yup that’s all you take away from this set of runs especially being 120hrs out. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro is so close to a legit event. I'm happy with the bump.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Yup that’s all you take away from this set of runs especially being 120hrs out. 

Yup.  For me, the Euro did what it needed to do...lend some credence to the GFS and the idea of a storm in the area.

[87storms]

What’s clear is that the wimpy warmup we had this week is looking temporary. Winter seems to be returning next week to the chilly base state we’ve had since September.

[Solution Man]

Getting close to lock in time, we are in a good place

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Getting close to lock in time, we are in a good place

Hm...with this kind of setup it feels like lock in time is still 4 days away, lol

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Getting close to lock in time, we are in a good place

In a normal year, maybe.  This year?   For me, lock in time is 84 hours or less