January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Better but not anywhere near better enough to get something 

So by not getting something do you mean fringes with 2-3” or smoking cirrus?

[Paleocene]

ICON is OTS

[Steckstacks]

Guys we are right on the fringe of getting some snow with most models. Chill out. Almost GFS time!! Get hype that we at least have something to track!


.

[baltosquid]

I think the ICON was a bit better at first but it struggles to go neutral anyway despite the west nudge so not much different.

[Huffwx]

Issue iwth ICON and other models is it catches the low but H85 low is out to sea on the baroclinic zone-- no way to transport any moisture back. 

 

Air is so dry, dynamic can ring out a few fluries? 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So by not getting something do you mean fringes with 2-3” or smoking cirrus?

Cirrus this time

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, Huffwx said:

Issue iwth ICON and other models is it catches the low but H85 low is out to sea on the baroclinic zone-- no way to transport any moisture back. 

 

Air is so dry, dynamic can ring out a few fluries? 

This is what happened a few weeks ago. Great h5 pass devoid of moisture transport.

[HighStakes]

if you're out then GET OUT!!

[StormyClearweather]

The amazing, incomparable, infallible, always right, never changing 6Z Weather Next took our light snow away, too. 

[Duca892]

Yea I can't see it this time. At least last week pretty consistently there was moisture being shown. Consistent accum's etc. Almost universally since 12z yesterday it has been OTS. 

[anotherman]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

BAM WX thinks that the eastern models are "out to lunch" and this thing will shift WNW.

Are there 'western' models?

[wxmeddler]

Two more days of “ Check back in every 12 hours” mode till we close the book for the I-95. Ocean City maybe a day after that. 

[Shad]

Still in on this one.....Looking at the surface on these runs sucks right now but its the smallest changes that can make this go from Bust to Boom.....would like to see things hold or trend back in next 24 hrs

[bncho]

Just now, anotherman said:

Are there 'western' models?

this is what he said:
by the way, his 10/31 GEFS members are west of the mean is a typo, i think he meant 10/31 are east of the mean and/or 21/30 are west of the mean

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, wxmeddler said:

Two more days of “ Check back in every 12 hours” mode till we close the book for the I-95. Ocean City maybe a day after that. 

More like one day.

[Nomz]

Just now, bncho said:

this is what he said:
by the way, his 10/31 GEFS members are west of the mean is a typo, i think he meant 10/31 are east of the mean and/or 21/30 are west of the mean

 Talk about huffing the copium

[stormy]

Icon trying to shift west with trough

[AmericanWxFreak]

Just now, Nomz said:

 Talk about huffing the copium

I thought everyone was just glazing this dude... lol

[NattyBo]

I have a question, wasn't sure where to ask:

 

How long would we need to sustain this kind of cold to see the Bay freeze over completely? Is it in the cards? That's something I've always wanted to see. 

 

Sorry to interrupt the regularly scheduled thread.

[BlueDXer75]

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

if you're out then GET OUT!!

Well said!  If you think this is over than stop posting in this thread and wait until the next threat to post.  It’s exhausting reading “it’s over” and “I’m out” all the time.  

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

if you're out then GET OUT!!

Harsh, but fair.  This is what i do when I’m out.  I’ll just say I’m out and just stop posting. 

[hosj III]

5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

ICON is OTS

largely theoretical question: why does it seem like fish storms tend to be pretty sparse with precipitation on the northwest quadrant compared to storms closer to the coast? does the continental air enhance precipitation somehow? or is this observation wrong/just a modelling error?

[clskinsfan]

The next threat after this one is interesting to me. Pattern relaxes a bit. Might end up cutting. But another chance at some WAA love imo. 

 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

The next threat after this one is interesting to me. Pattern relaxes a bit. Might end up cutting. But another chance at some WAA love imo. 

 

I'd rather have nothing instead of a cutter

[Paleocene]

GOOFUS is running. Here's the operational MSLP of the last 6 runs... hopping all over the place with really wide spread. I'm not out until probably 00z tonight if everything is consistently offshore through 12z/18z.

[H2O]

My question is if the dolphins, that had to leave because the water in the Atlantic was too cold for sleet, can come back and pull the low more wester so we can have snow?

 

Can someone ask JB if this is possible?

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The next threat after this one is interesting to me. Pattern relaxes a bit. Might end up cutting. But another chance at some WAA love imo. 

 

No thanks. I just had 4.5” of WAA sleet. I want CAA snow. 

[Zeus]

7 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

I thought everyone was just glazing this dude... lol

I saw a video like that once or a dozen times.

[AlexD1990]

Just now, Zeus said:

I saw a video like that once or a dozen times.

@ravensruleis that you?

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

No thanks. I just had 4.5” of WAA sleet. I want CAA snow. 

You take what you can get in a Nina.