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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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Issue iwth ICON and other models is it catches the low but H85 low is out to sea on the baroclinic zone-- no way to transport any moisture back. 

 

Air is so dry, dynamic can ring out a few fluries? 850th.conus.png

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1 minute ago, Huffwx said:

Issue iwth ICON and other models is it catches the low but H85 low is out to sea on the baroclinic zone-- no way to transport any moisture back. 

 

Air is so dry, dynamic can ring out a few fluries? 850th.conus.png

This is what happened a few weeks ago. Great h5 pass devoid of moisture transport.

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Still in on this one.....Looking at the surface on these runs sucks right now but its the smallest changes that can make this go from Bust to Boom.....would like to see things hold or trend back in next 24 hrs

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Just now, anotherman said:

Are there 'western' models?

this is what he said:
by the way, his 10/31 GEFS members are west of the mean is a typo, i think he meant 10/31 are east of the mean and/or 21/30 are west of the mean

Screenshot 2026-01-27 at 10.26.59 AM.png

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I have a question, wasn't sure where to ask:

 

How long would we need to sustain this kind of cold to see the Bay freeze over completely? Is it in the cards? That's something I've always wanted to see. 

 

Sorry to interrupt the regularly scheduled thread.

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5 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

ICON is OTS

prateptype_cat_icon-imp.conus.png

largely theoretical question: why does it seem like fish storms tend to be pretty sparse with precipitation on the northwest quadrant compared to storms closer to the coast? does the continental air enhance precipitation somehow? or is this observation wrong/just a modelling error?

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My question is if the dolphins, that had to leave because the water in the Atlantic was too cold for sleet, can come back and pull the low more wester so we can have snow?

 

Can someone ask JB if this is possible?

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The next threat after this one is interesting to me. Pattern relaxes a bit. Might end up cutting. But another chance at some WAA love imo. 

500hv.conus.png

 

No thanks. I just had 4.5” of WAA sleet. I want CAA snow. 

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