January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[snowfan]

I think I'd actually be more concerned if Osfan was excited about this one.

[stormy]

Its not over.      There are 12 more more model runs between now and Friday.

I can guarantee that significant changes await.  They may be east and they may be west, or northwest. 

[Interstate]

Yeah just like last weekends storm was in NC on Tuesday. We saw how that worked out. 

[RevWarReenactor]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps updated....meh

Its going the wrong way.

[RevWarReenactor]

Correct me if I am wrong but I don't there is any scientific basis behind comparing how models handled other storms.

"Last storm trended west, so that must mean this one will". Is almost like saying "the last two coin flips were tails, so the next one probably will be too".

Yet so many people repeat it on here.

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah it’s a miss for most to the east now, but not by that much.  Also GEFS just trended the other way.  It’s only Tuesday…

We are relying on some very intricate interactions and phasing of streams.  Tiny adjustments make a big difference.  At least there’s something to track 2 days after getting an area wide storm.  

[Wintrest]

3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Its going the wrong way.

Not the most encouraging trend. To note, there does not appear to be great member agreement on the low placement.
 

AI EPS agreement is much closer to the coast, with a few major outliers way far out to sea skewing the group.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, nj2va said:

We are relying on some very intricate interactions and phasing of streams.  Tiny adjustments make a big difference.  At least there’s something to track 2 days after getting an area wide storm.  

Yeah I’ll be watching for changes til at minimum 12z tomorrow.  Pretty loaded situation in terms of potential.  Models are swinging around run to run still so I don’t discount the possibility of big changes. 

[Kmlwx]

I will say this - I agree it is probably dead for the metro area(s). Sure, coastal/eastern sections are still in the game. But one huge caveat here...I know with remote sensing the whole "data sparse regions" argument is less valid - however, when we are dealing with some pretty small scale changes that can make big changes, I would probably at least mentally keep one eye on this until the s/w hits the west coast and the energy up in Canada (which is a mess of stuff flying around) is sampled/resolved better. I don't think it's going to make any huge shifts...but there might be a point where it gives us a little glimmer of  hope here in the DC/Baltimore areas. Again...I think this is probably not the one for us here in the corridor...but just saying - there is still some data to be sampled by the upper air network that *might* contribute to changes. 

But as I said above - the ensembles all still look pretty solid into February. If the blocking really does recycle - we will probably get another chance or two to make bank. There are absolutely NO guarantees in this. I'm sure @Maestrobjwa will confirm this at this point. Nobody is "owed" snow. If it happens, it happens...if it doesn't, well it doesn't. 

[ifindppl]

What a great line:  Nobody is "owed" snow. I bet there are a few on this forum who disagree. 

[Climate175]

It’s still Tuesday, it’s not Thursday/Friday, models are bound to shift. It’s only a matter of what direction. If it is still OTS by that point, then we can conclude it is going that way. While GFS and Euro showed more OTS—the 12z WeatherNext 2.0 yesterday still showed snow over our region and not OTS

[87storms]

32 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Definitely disappointing. On the back of this past weekend storm and with the crazy cold we have had, a huge blizzard would have vaulted this winter into rare territory and given it a chance to be one of the best ever.

I think we need to get out of this La Niña stuff. We’re either getting storms with too much warm air intrusion from 850 to 700 or fast moving NS systems that aren’t digging early enough (too much ridging out west?). Need a pattern that allows these components to play nicer together. Feels like it usually points back to downstream blocking. The main causes of that would make for an interesting research topic.

[Cary]

You would think this was New England reading some of these more recent posts.

[H2O]

Unless this thing does a Jan 2000 it’s gonna be hard to get what we were hoping for  

Just a lot of things hinge on exact location of N stream. When we have to thread needles stats show we hit as well as pitchers do in baseball

[Terpeast]

Next window of interest feb 5-7

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Next window of interest feb 5-7

Why do you say?

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why do you say?

WB 6Z AIEPS

[Climate175]

41 minutes ago, stormy said:

Its not over.      There are 12 more more model runs between now and Friday.

I can guarantee that significant changes await.  They may be east and they may be west, or northwest. 

Summed it up well. 

[MickeyTim6533]

guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI EPS for the weekend. 12% chance.

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us

I’m giving it until Thursday night to agree. Not out of desperation, just knowing that anything can happen. 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us

Yes sir

[MickeyTim6533]

I am as frustrated as anyone. sometimes this is how it goes

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

10 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us

lol you must be new here.  We track threats in winter.  Why would we take a break? This is fun for us even when they don’t trend the way we want.  We take a big break from about March 15 to Nov 15 every year. 

[Solution Man]

WTF, DEB’s around here…perhaps you need the break. This is a weather forum.

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us

 

[Climate175]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

lol you must be new here.  We track threats in winter.  Why would we take a break? This is fun for us even when they don’t trend the way we want.  We take a big break from about March 15 to Nov 15 every year. 

And besides, they are acting like the projected storm is going to happen tonight lol. 

[AlexD1990]

13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Yes sir

 

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

never before has someone flown onto my ignore list so quickly.

[snowfan]

14 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

I am as frustrated as anyone. sometimes this is how it goes

Stay safe in Reading, PA. 

[LordBaltimore]

TERRAIN! TERRAIN! PULL UP! PULL UP!