January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Berlin1926]

19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

North Carolina's biggest storm. And Norfolk got crushed. 

Huh?  Where in North Carolina?  MT. Mitchell got 53" in 1993.  Raleigh got something like 24" in 2000.

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Yall just be out here saying anything..

 

1 hour ago, grhqofb5 said:

Guys- there’s 3 obvious things we should all realize at this point 4+ days out:

(1) The storm track will move either significantly northwest, or southeast. Most likely Northwest.

(2) When it moves Northwest, there will widespread mixing issues in DC area. If it moves southeast, the DC area will get virtually nothing.

(3) There will be no “thundersnow.”

 

 

[diatae]

[Nomz]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I know I seem really confident here... I am not.  And I have no special insight.  But I do know if the trend across guidance of the last 2 weeks or so, ever since the current pattern started of severe -AO and a retrogressing longwave pattern, this will look nothing like what people think of when they say "miller b".  Does that mean this hits...probably not, most of our threats fail, even in a year like 2010, we remember the big hits...we don't remember the 2 storms in December that failed before Dec 19, or the one around New Years, or the one in mid January that made Ji go thermal nuclear and blow up the thread, or the 2 later in February or the one in March that made Ji say the season was ruined.  Even in the absolute BEST possible patterns we fail more than we win...but if we get a good pattern and have it lock in for a significant period of our cold season...we do usually eventually win...and I think we will this year also.  

What I can say about this threat specifically is that unless guidance is way off on the depth of the trough this is not similar to our typical miller b setup.  Could it trend towards that...yea, if the NS wave starts not digging as far south...if we start to see it start to trend northeast...then yea this becomes a typical NYC to Boston storm and yes that could happen.  

But...know what else could happen...if the seasonal trend continues and the whole trough ends up another 200 miles west 5 days from now...this ends up closer to January 1996 than a typical miller b.  That was a northern stream wave that dove in and captured a weak STJ wave also...but it dove in through the Dakotas and right now guidance has this diving in through Wisconsin.  Shift this west a bit and its almost identical to the 1996 setup.  It's also coming as a previous -3stdv greenland block dissipates as it retrogrades into central Canada, which was the setup in 1996 also! 

I am NOT saying this is a 1996 repeat...just that its a lot closer to that type of thing than I think many realize.  If we only get a slight west shift it becomes similar to January 1966, take a look at the h5 in the KU book for that one...its damn close just that one the NS wave dove in around the WI/MN border...slightly west of where guidance has this one.   

It could go the other way, past does not always predict future.  Maye the trend this time is north...or east...or south and the deep south gets clobbered...but if whats been the most common guidance error were to play out...we would end up with a serious threat here from this...that's all I am saying.  

Oh and BTW 1996 looked almost identical to what the models are showing right now when it was 3-5 days out...it didn't morph into a huge storm for us until 24 hours out.  Remember when Bob Ryan cam back on the 11 news after his actual weather segment to say "we're getting a blizzard" at the end of the broadcast.  They didn't even have graphics yet...but the 0z guidance all came out during the 11 news and showed it shifting north.  Until then it was a richmond to NC blizzard.  Yea the guidance is better now...so maybe that correction would happen around day 4 instead of day 1-2 but it's not so much better that a similar error can't happen 5-6 days out from the storm.  

Wait Ji isn't a high schooler?

[ravensrule]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Absolutely.  Remember the storm and Terps loss only too well. 

You're the only one on the board who does. Wasn't that before the invention of TV's?. 

[Ephesians2]

Blacksburg AFD from this evening:

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Wait Ji isn't a high schooler?

Ji is like 50 years old. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I know I seem really confident here... I am not.  And I have no special insight.  But I do know if the trend across guidance of the last 2 weeks or so, ever since the current pattern started of severe -AO and a retrogressing longwave pattern, this will look nothing like what people think of when they say "miller b".  Does that mean this hits...probably not, most of our threats fail, even in a year like 2010, we remember the big hits...we don't remember the 2 storms in December that failed before Dec 19, or the one around New Years, or the one in mid January that made Ji go thermal nuclear and blow up the thread, or the 2 later in February or the one in March that made Ji say the season was ruined.  Even in the absolute BEST possible patterns we fail more than we win...but if we get a good pattern and have it lock in for a significant period of our cold season...we do usually eventually win...and I think we will this year also.  

What I can say about this threat specifically is that unless guidance is way off on the depth of the trough this is not similar to our typical miller b setup.  Could it trend towards that...yea, if the NS wave starts not digging as far south...if we start to see it start to trend northeast...then yea this becomes a typical NYC to Boston storm and yes that could happen.  

But...know what else could happen...if the seasonal trend continues and the whole trough ends up another 200 miles west 5 days from now...this ends up closer to January 1996 than a typical miller b.  That was a northern stream wave that dove in and captured a weak STJ wave also...but it dove in through the Dakotas and right now guidance has this diving in through Wisconsin.  Shift this west a bit and its almost identical to the 1996 setup.  It's also coming as a previous -3stdv greenland block dissipates as it retrogrades into central Canada, which was the setup in 1996 also! 

I am NOT saying this is a 1996 repeat...just that its a lot closer to that type of thing than I think many realize.  If we only get a slight west shift it becomes similar to January 1966, take a look at the h5 in the KU book for that one...its damn close just that one the NS wave dove in around the WI/MN border...slightly west of where guidance has this one.   

It could go the other way, past does not always predict future.  Maye the trend this time is north...or east...or south and the deep south gets clobbered...but if whats been the most common guidance error were to play out...we would end up with a serious threat here from this...that's all I am saying.  

Oh and BTW 1996 looked almost identical to what the models are showing right now when it was 3-5 days out...it didn't morph into a huge storm for us until 24 hours out.  Remember when Bob Ryan cam back on the 11 news after his actual weather segment to say "we're getting a blizzard" at the end of the broadcast.  They didn't even have graphics yet...but the 0z guidance all came out during the 11 news and showed it shifting north.  Until then it was a richmond to NC blizzard.  Yea the guidance is better now...so maybe that correction would happen around day 4 instead of day 1-2 but it's not so much better that a similar error can't happen 5-6 days out from the storm.  

 

[stormtracker]

The thing is… I read every last word of his post like it was a soap opera.  Do it again Psu. 

[Nomz]

LWX AFD mentions Wednesday as the go/no-go day

[Ji]

Beach chase run. Rehoboth..Dogfish Head. Yeah baby.

This one seems more Jan 2010 than yesterday

Just kidding. Hopefully the 5th cape storm will work out

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Nomz said:

LWX AFD mentions Wednesday as the go/no-go day

For our storm thread

[Ji]

HOLY…
I honestly hadn’t looked at the analogs. I was just looking at the whole H5 setup and going off memory. But DAMN 

I love you this year. Too bad you only post a few times a week

[wxdude64]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The thing is… I read every last word of his post like it was a soap opera.  Do it again Psu. 

And so, will it snow again? Will it be a HECS? Stay tuned, as those are the days of our lives.....

[bncho]

The cold this week is truly historic and incredibly anomalous, especially considering our warming climate.

[Maestrobjwa]

37 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

North Carolina's biggest storm. And Norfolk got crushed. 

Do you remember how we missed that one?

[high risk]

49 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I thought @high risk stated a few days ago that it's heavily weighted with ensembles leaning more on the EPS family  if I understood him correctly. 

 

    Ok, 3 things going on here:

  1)   The winter suite in the NBM is only updated at 01, 07, 13, and 19Z.    So, if you're showing an 18Z cycle for this medium range case, it's as "stale" as you can have it.

  2)  In the medium range, the only inputs are the 50 ECMWF ensemble members, the 30 GEFS members, and the GFS.   It doesn't even include the deterministic ECMWF run (don't ask).    Some of the CMC members are now included in the parallel.   Here is what you're going to hate:   the NBM does not yet receive the 06/18Z ECWMF data.   And at 19Z, the ECMWF ensemble has not yet arrived.    So, the 18z cycle in question is still using the very snowy 00Z ECMWF ensemble.   That's what's driving the big numbers.    

  3)  One additional factor:  bias correction is performed for QPF for the global model inputs, and the bias-corrected QPF is used by the NBM winter suite.   The bias correction, based on the based 90 days of forecasted and observed QPF in this case is bumping up the QPF for the event, as it believes that the ECMWF ensemble has been running dry.    So, you have some inputs with high raw precip values that are being further adjusted up.    

            That's why the 18Z NBM looks so snowy.   The 01Z cycle coming out soon will use the 12Z ECMWF ensemble and the 18Z GEFS;  based on what I see in the QPF of those systems, my guess is the NBM snowfall will be a fair amount lower, although the bias correction might boost it a bit more than I expect.

  

  

[AtlanticWx]

nam with QUITE the jump west of our NS energy by hour 48. significantly more stretching of the TPV and looks more conducive to break off. hope that's something with 00z models and not just the nam being the nam

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said:

nam with QUITE the jump west of our NS energy by hour 48. significantly more stretching of the TPV and looks more conducive to break off. hope that's something with 00z models and not just the nam being the nam

Yeah, watching it too.  Definitely stretched more wester so far vs 18z

[Jebman]

19 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

We will have handheld phones like those by about 2037, they will use applied nanotechnology to change shape, but we will have even better tech than phones by the middle/later 2030s.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Anyone know if we can access this new Google ensemble model?

[LeesburgWx]

Looks like Norfolk's largest snowstorm on record is Dec 27-28, 1892 with 18.6 inches. This storm could theoretically surpass this based on some model runs today. I can't locate upper air or surface maps for this storm - any idea if there are any available? Would all be estimates, obviously, but curious how that storm played out and what happened up here, if anything.

[EHoffman]

24 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Wait Ji isn't a high schooler?

Ji was doomposting on Eastern before you were even born.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, Jebman said:

We will have handheld phones like those by about 2037, they will use applied nanotechnology to change shape, but we will have even better tech than phones by the middle/later 2030s.

The GFS will still be terrible.

[Jebman]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Anyone know if we can access this new Google ensemble model?

Thats the Weathernext 2.0 Model I think.

https://efisher828.github.io/weathernext/

[NovaWahoo]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Ji was doomposting on Eastern before you were even born.

As a mostly lurker from WrightWeather (was that it?) to Eastern to here, I just assumed Ji was like the Dread Pirate Roberts. He's not the REAL Ji. The REAL Ji is retired somewhere with a lot of snow. Perhaps Tahoe. But he picked a new "Ji" to replace him who picked a new Ji to replace him. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

7 minutes ago, Jebman said:

We will have handheld phones like those by about 2037, they will use applied nanotechnology to change shape, but we will have even better tech than phones by the middle/later 2030s.

In 2037 your phone will be walking around your house doing your laundry. Banter, but it had to be said. 

As for this storm, it's time for the good old die roll. It was a good one. 18 means I'm liking our chances. Needed a high roll for this thread-the-needle type situation. Would've loved to see a critical hit here, but 18 is still really good.

[SnowenOutThere]

Man I've tried doing a bit of synoptic breakdown with this upcoming system and the difference between a 6z euro run and a 12z run is just so minor. Not quite sure what to even root for when extrapolating the models before hour 60. After then its pretty clear we want a further south and west NS dive with higher heights out in front thanks to some interaction with our 50/50. Otherwise I got nothing. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

In 2037 your phone will be walking around your house doing your laundry. Banter, but it had to be said. 

As for this storm, it's time for the good old die roll. It was a good one. 18 means I'm liking our chances. Needed a high roll for this thread-the-needle type situation. Would've loved to see a critical hit here, but 18 is still really good.

d18? #blessed

[Jebman]

9 minutes ago, NovaWahoo said:

As a mostly lurker from WrightWeather (was that it?) to Eastern to here, I just assumed Ji was like the Dread Pirate Roberts. He's not the REAL Ji. The REAL Ji is retired somewhere with a lot of snow. Perhaps Tahoe. But he picked a new "Ji" to replace him who picked a new Ji to replace him. 

Wright Weather Bulletin Board (WWBB), that was the very first weather forum I ever read. That was back in the good old days. Before that I think it was some place called ne.weather.