January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Scraff said:

15 mins until the most important HH GooFus run of the winter. LOL. And damn it, I wasn’t going to crack any beers today, but after cleaning cars and shoveling the last remaining several inches of the glacier—a South County Riff Mtn West Coast DIPA was rightfully earned. Let’s reel in this Miller A MoFo! 

For me I care more about the 18z Euro, lol Wanna see it at least not go further east

[stormtracker]

Prob gonna slide straight ENE from here would be my guess?

ETA>.yeah, clips us.  Close enough. Can't be 100% certain tho because don't know what that h5 gonna do beyond...seems to me it's probably just gonna keep moving NNE

 

[high risk]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z NBM

 

          Always like seeing NBM images here, but    1) this cycle reflects the 00Z Euro ensembles and not the less snowy 12Z        2) The NBM mean, like any ensemble mean, can be skewed by a handful of very snowy members.   FWIW, the latest NBM cycle still keeps the probability of an inch or greater of snow this weekend at under 50%.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Prob gonna slide straight ENE from here would be my guess?

ETA>.yeah, clips us

 

Northern stream didn't dig nearly as far as 12z but still a close off and little energy ball. Shows the middle ground solution. Move north 75 miles and it's like a juiced energetic clipper in the DMV

[stormy]

53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Globals always struggle with mix lines. They excel at qpf but ptype is often more muddy. This is where forecasters earn their money. Applying historical/past experience and the region's favored climo outcomes can often make sense of this and produce a solid forecast that doesn't mirror any specific weather model output. Hobbiests should do the same. I agree, it was obvious based on soundings and mid level temp panels that the zr threat was overdone the euro. Easy mental adjustment. Models aren't perfect and rarely nail a forecast top to bottom. The nam 3k is unpredictable and inconsistent with qpf output but it's pretty good with thermals. Apply that skill to the euros qpf output and see what happens to your expectations. 

Snow maps and snow output is an algorithmic map and also a new phenomenon. They didn't exist when I joined Eastern wx and they have always been unreliable. They are a good snapshot/data point tool but without applying critical thought they should never be used verbatim as an expectation. In the past we used to (as a group) decide how much qpf will likely fall as snow and create our own estimates. I still do this and will continue. Snow maps are fun to look at but make terrible wives. Don't marry them. Use your brain. 

If you are using the ensemble snow maps at short range and setting expectations then you will often not be correct. Euro AI ens are great upper air tools in the mid range and seem pretty good at qpf in the mid range but when you're inside of 48-72 hours, op runs are the heavyweights by a large margin.

Thanks Bob!!   Your input is always treasured!!!!!      I wish you could or would give your synopsis on the weather every day during maybe mid afternoon after digesting the 12z runs.    I always learn from your laid back presentation.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Northern stream didn't dig nearly as far as 12z but still a close off and little energy ball. Shows the middle ground solution. Move north 75 miles and it's like a juiced energetic clipper in the DMV

Yeah, it's close enough relatively speaking.  Ok, done with the ICON...on to the GFS

[rjvanals]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Prob gonna slide straight ENE from here would be my guess?

ETA>.yeah, clips us

 

Icon looks like last Mondays 12z GFS which jackpotted Richmond 

[hstorm]

ICON gives Richmond ~10 inches.  It's not that far from a hit.

[LeesburgWx]

Every model so far is giving Norfolk a low 970mbs Blizzard. Need to bring this storm closer to the coast for us. ICON is close but not quite there

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

ICON is 100 miles to the right of going boom for us.  Shift the trough that much and we’re good. 

[jayyy]

JMA has progressive bias sooooo

Sharp, backed up PNA = winner
Flatter, more east PNA = congrats Norfolk

[Nomz]

Is Norfolk in our "CWA"? How far south do we go?

[jayyy]

Is Norfolk in our "CWA"? How far south do we go?

No it’s not

[Nomz]

LWX AFD added a mention of the potential storm.

KEY MESSAGE 3...The next round of winter weather is possible this weekend.

A large scale, northern stream trough will dig south from the upper Great Lakes toward the central Appalachians this weekend. At the same time, a southern stream ejects from the Four Corners toward the Gulf states. As these systems phase along the Eastern Seaboard, there is good agreement that an area of low pressure develops along or near the coast. The location of the phasing will determine how close to the coast the low is. The long range models are painting a typical Miller A type Nor`easter that could bring wintry precipitation along some of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Cold air won't be an issue with an Arctic airmass leading up to the weekend (highs in the teens to low 20s Fri/Sat) and a reinforcing high building over southern Quebec/Ontario on Sunday.

It is important to note that model uncertainty for any given solution is very high at 5-6 days out, but the ensemble guidance
does hint at the possibility of some snow in the area this weekend. The 12Z European, GFS, and Canadian all have around a 20-30pct chance for 3" of snow east of the Blue Ridge. The NBM speak best to the wide range of possibilities for this system, with the 13Z run having a 20-30pct chance for 6" of snow, around 20pct chance for 12", around 15pct chance for 18", and around 5pct chance for 24". Expect model guidance to bounce around significantly over the next few days before settling on a solution by the end of this week. By Wednesday the regional models will have some output that goes into the weekend. For now, take note of this potential threat and continue to monitor for updates as the week progresses.

[87storms]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Northern stream didn't dig nearly as far as 12z but still a close off and little energy ball. Shows the middle ground solution. Move north 75 miles and it's like a juiced energetic clipper in the DMV

Which is exactly what I think our area should be rooting for (the coastal seems a reach). I’d like to see the energy out west a little further north and the ns system as well.

[DDweatherman]

The ICON was almost another way to win a good storm, the case of a N/S digging and closing off passing where we'd like it to give us good snow. Just a few hours too late on the formation and tilting of the trough. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Is Norfolk in our "CWA"? How far south do we go?

I think it's technically NoVA for the most part...I mean Bob abandoned us all to the southern corner of VA  but other than that...yeah NOVA. 

[jayyy]

The ICON was almost another way to win a good storm, the case of a N/S digging and closing off passing where we'd like it to give us good snow. Just a few hours too late on the formation and tilting of the trough. 

Believe that’s what bob chill was alluding to as well. A sexy clipper of sorts

[Nomz]

There goes the GFS

[stormtracker]

Out to 24.  Will update once we get to 60 or so

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Believe that’s what bob chill was alluding to as well. A sexy clipper of sorts

I originally didn't think there was a middle ground solution. That's why I was pessimistic last few days. Seemed like either the coastal got ripping and turned the corner or there was nothing. Northern stream looks more appetizing today. 

I'd take my chances with this kind of h5 look any day of winter. Won't blow minds or anything but I'd be thrilled with a 4-6" event...

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

ICON is 100 miles to the right of going boom for us.  Shift the trough that much and we’re good. 

These models are also precariously close to sliding off the coast and being a graze job. Hope this storm follows seasonal trends. Would make for quite a KU

[Nomz]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

These models are also pretty variously close to sliding off the coast and being a graze job. Hope this storm follows seasonal trends. Would make for quite a KU

Are "seasonal trends" a real thing? Rational part of me says the sample size is much too small; monkey pattern recognition part of me says they might exist.

[jayyy]

Are "seasonal trends" a real thing? Rational part of me says the sample size is much too small; monkey pattern recognition part of me says they might exist.

First mention of atmospheric memory! Bingo card

[CAPE]

I need a foot of snow to thoroughly bury this glacier lol. Walking on top of the ice sheet unless I stomp my feet to break through to the snow.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

First mention of atmospheric memory! Bingo card

This has been brought up several times today by other posters including but not limited to chill and psu. you are slow to call bingo.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Are "seasonal trends" a real thing? Rational part of me says the sample size is much too small; monkey pattern recognition part of me says they might exist.

I used to be like you. Then I watched south and east of me get hit for the past 5 winters I while smoked cirrus. I dont discount seasonal trends anymore. 

[stormtracker]

So I do notice that the sw up top does bulge/ extend wester a bit more so far than 12z

[Terpeast]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So I do notice that the sw up top does bulge/ extend wester a bit more so far than 12z

But there seems to be more of a “connection” with the energy over nova scotia, which may not be what we want. But it could be nothing 

[SnowenOutThere]

Ridge axis is a bit further east but seems to have a more potent NS energy dropping south. The main NS energy which retrogrades and drops over us might be in a slightly better position but I'm not sure.