January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[overcautionisbad]

[Bob Chill]

A bit disappointed seeing the changes pretty early in the run. It can swing back but there's not a lot of time for that. Would need the re-dig trend to start basically with 18-0z runs today and not several days down the line. I expect the eps to play follow the leader at this range as well but that doesn't mean as much with lead times being short. 

[overcautionisbad]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

A bit disappointed seeing the changes pretty early in the run. It can swing back but there's not a lot of time for that. Would need the re-dig trend to start basically with 18-0z runs today and not several days down the line. I expect the eps to play follow the leader at this range as well but that doesn't mean as much with lead times being short. 

Lots of time until Saturday

[stormtracker]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

A bit disappointed seeing the changes pretty early in the run. It can swing back but there's not a lot of time for that. Would need the re-dig trend to start basically with 18-0z runs today and not several days down the line. I expect the eps to play follow the leader at this range as well but that doesn't mean as much with lead times being short. 

Yeah, that's my time line I'm looking for changes.

[wxmeddler]

Locked in on *something* happening nearby. But I agree, it's a bit further east than we would want at this point.

[Alfoman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

so deflating...especially cause its under 120 hours out. Randy is fired

We got the CMC/E, ICON, and GFS/GEFS to improve run-over-run, no need to be perfect D5 as we very clearly found out this past week. Lots of ways to make this work even on a smaller scale than a HECS/BECS event like the 6z euro

[AtlanticWx]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

A bit disappointed seeing the changes pretty early in the run. It can swing back but there's not a lot of time for that. Would need the re-dig trend to start basically with 18-0z runs today and not several days down the line. I expect the eps to play follow the leader at this range as well but that doesn't mean as much with lead times being short. 

agreed with this, but fwiw, it is JUST the euro and aifs doing this. every other model made significant strides to a more amped solution

[AlexD1990]

It does seem like eastern areas might be preferred at this range. yes I know everything can change at this lead.

[jayyy]

Lots of time until Saturday

Not lots of time for the things that happen early on to change though. The storm may be 5 days out, but what happens day 1-3 matters a ton in how the storm plays out

Not out of the game whatsoever but food for thought

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, overcautionisbad said:

Lots of time until Saturday

In this case we're banking on the trough going neutral or barely positive and that progression starts much earlier than Saturday. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

In this case we're banking on the trough going neutral or barely positive and that progression starts much earlier than Saturday. 

Yeah I'd really want to see consistent runs showing that evolution between now and Wednesday. We have 48 hours, by hour 60 in the run we just had some knew it was going to be a bit east. 

[jayyy]

When’s the cmc run again?

Edit — nvm didn’t scroll up

[midatlanticweather]

See ya for 18z - Better be a blip.. but you want to see each run get better.. not worse.. Anyways.. thanks for the pbp @stormtracker

[peribonca]

Was there any snow on the east coast from the 12 z euro?

[Shad]

eastern nc gets smoked into VA beach, not alot further north....not a bad place to be at this time honestly...

[snowmagnet]

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

so deflating...especially cause its under 120 hours out. Randy is fired

Well, being as though I control the weather and models, I get it.    Go take a nap man.  Come back for 0z.  Skip 18z altogether.  

[Maestrobjwa]

Disappointing Euro suite...Ah well if we miss this one I'm almost sure that won't be the last chance we have. At least we'll know pretty soon and hopefully don't have to still be tortured from Wednesday on

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Let’s see the ensembles.  It was around this time frame for this last storm that we were switching from worried about suppression to mixing.  The 12z guidance keeps us in the game which is what you want at this range. 

[midatlanticweather]

We need to see eps though.. still useful this far out for sure. 

 

[LeesburgWx]

22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z Can. ensemble; last picture compared to 0Z.

Some optimism on the CMC is that there are several west leaning members on the ENS

[Amped]

13 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

That's why I caution this is delicate setup even if we eventually do get the low bombing off the coast at some point. Those smaller differences up top translate into huge surface-level shifts 

It definitely is, this is not a typical setup. Gonna need some meteorological gymnastics to get it to tuck and curl in the perfect spot.

[osfan24]

 Niña tells me this definitely has a Boxing Day or NE feel to it.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said:

You want an Apps runner?

Apps runner???? Nooooo 

[jayyy]

Apps runner???? Nooooo 

Good news is this has like a .1% chance of being a runner. It’s either OTS or we pull some gymnastics and it’s closer to the coast. No shot this ends up in WV

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

 Niña tells me this definitely has a Boxing Day or NE feel to it.

Uh...hasn't the main fail mode here been simply OTS/Carolina coast scraper and OTS?

[rjvanals]

 Normally having it be SE is a good thing but both the GFS and Euro and even Icon indicate the storm will have more of a positive tilt vs the negative tilt we need to get precip back to I-81. 

[jayyy]

Uh...hasn't the main fail mode here been simply OTS/Carolina coast scraper and OTS?

Yeah. Niñas are known for coastal scrapers and CAPE to Nantucket specials. But it’s also a huge over generalization to say it’ll fail because it’s a niña.

[RevWarReenactor]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...hasn't the main fail mode here been simply OTS/Carolina coast scraper and OTS?

No, check out the January 2022 blizzard for more. 

Perhaps you don't remember it because there isn't much to remember for these parts. But in summary Atlantic City got 16 inches while we watched.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EPS looking good to me so far (90 hours) but also I am not very intelligent.