January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

About 14 mins from euro ai. Hopefully it’s similar to the 6z beat down 

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS; last picture compared to 6Z.

Backing in.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

About 14 mins from euro ai. Hopefully it’s similar to the 6z beat down 

If it goes the other way, I'll be worried for some peeps in here

[Terrapinwx]

The ICON should have been more tucked than it was with that 500 representation. It is really close to Euro. And the GFS took a step in that direction as well. This thing has real legs now.

The individual members on the ensemble support this. Still no consensus but seems that any storm that amplifies put us in the game. Even a few that take the low up the Bay


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[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

If it goes the other way, I'll be worried for some peeps in here

As long as it not a complete disaster I’m not going to worry if it is a little worse we are 5 days out. It’s going to change multiple times, better or worse. As long as it doesn’t stay worse. 

[snowmagnet]

I wonder what Louis Uccellini would say about this one? 

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

If it goes the other way, I'll be worried for some peeps in here

Not really, in my head I only still have this at about a 20% chance of happening. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[jayyy]

Ready for the AI shellacking

[hstorm]

49 minutes ago, bncho said:

Start the Thread.

The good news here is that a 400-mile north shift would still give us the 2.5" that Savannah gets on this run.

[Weather Will]

Euro seems late again at least on WB.

[jayyy]

I know we obviously want to see as much guidance on board as possible, but the euro / ai / cmc sniffed out yesterday’s storm first as well. We certainly have the best camp in our corner - especially at day 5. Plenty of time to reel this fish (storm) in. If in 48 hours most guidance is still OTS, we will have to re-evaluate. But as bob chill said, an in between solution can still be a 2-4/3-6 of fresh pow type clipper to add to our snowpack that’s going nowhere.

[stormtracker]

Euro is running

[Nomz]

Just now, jayyy said:

I know we obviously want to see as much guidance on board as possible, but the euro / ai / cmc sniffed out yesterday’s storm first as well. We certainly have the best camp in our corner - especially at day 5. Plenty of time to reel this fish (storm) in. If in 48 hours most guidance is still OTS, we will have to re-evaluate. But as bob chill said, an in between solution can still be a 2-4/3-6 of fresh pow type clipper to add to our snowpack that’s going nowhere.

For sure. I'd rather have the euro fam in our corner than the gfs fam.

[stormtracker]

Good thing is we're starting at under 120, so should know something pretty quick

[Heisy]

Euro is running

I’m 40 but I still get a lump in my stomach before these runs lol


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[somecallmetim]

Just now, Heisy said:

I’m 40 but I still get a lump in my stomach before these runs lol


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I'll be 55 this year, and I expect to have the same feeling when I'm 85.

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS worse - but in the range

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z AI EURO is east this run.

[bncho]

Euro AI worse than 6z, but not a disaster by any means

[bncho]

lol

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I’m 40 but I still get a lump in my stomach before these runs lol


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It ain't just you trust me, lol

[Eskimo Joe]

Nothing wrong with the Euro-AI. You don't want to be in the bulls eye this far out.

[TSSN+]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Nothing wrong with the Euro-AI. You don't want to be in the bulls eye this far out.

Ya talk to North Carolina how that worked out 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Nothing wrong with the Euro-AI. You don't want to be in the bulls eye this far out.

Yeah, it's the ensembles we should focus on at this point.

[Weather Will]

Really should lean on the ensembles 5-6 days out.

[aldie 22]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Nothing wrong with the Euro-AI. You don't want to be in the bulls eye this far out.

Seems to me it would be pretty incredible if any model has locked in at this lead without any wavering...just as long as we can still smell the snow nearby i'm good at this point. Come wednesday different story i would like to see models start to narrow in

[Ji]

it looks like it was a stronger storm though overall...just more east

[overcautionisbad]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya talk to North Carolina how that worked out 

Hell or Richmond who was bullseye on Tuesday

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Already seeing snowfall maps making the rounds on Twitter and other platforms. We need to limit access to this information for the general public, lol. Hilariously stupid to post these so early in a forum like that! 

People post em and they will end up there. Plenty of folks on those platforms generate them.. And why not? Its happening here lol, and still 5+ days out. I have liked the potential for this window for awhile, but probably a little soon to go nuts over snow maps. I'm focused on h5 and what the 'trends' are looking like, mostly leaning on the ensembles.  Signal for something good is getting stronger.