January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[LeesburgWx]

I need sleep after this week and now this. Unreal. Can we reel this one in. We’ll have snow on the ground until March at this rate

[Amped]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Pt. 1

Pt. 2

Approaching Blizzard of 93 coverage, colossal.

[dailylurker]

What model has the clipper mid week? I don't see anything about it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's obviously long range but analogs and teles are screaming big storm potential. AO on the relax after a big dive and a solid analog list. Weenie rule that the big ones are sniffed out early and a big +WDI

 

Even from my layman perspective...initially I liked this window better than our current storm for that very reason--the relax! But the current storms is good too 

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

What model has the clipper mid week? I don't see anything about it. 

It pops up randomly on guidance but CMC had it today

[Buddy1987]

I can't even help but look past this storm when both the CMC and GFS now show this behemoth. What a pounding.

[Bob Chill]

GEFS is picking up on the Miller A idea. 

 

 

[Scraff]

I’d like to trade in my sleet for what’s behind door #1. 

[somecallmetim]

Actually, I'm fine with the snow and sleet glacier if we get what's behind door #1 on top of it. That look reminds me of tracking the '93 Superstorm in college in VT with the rudimentary internet. I thought finding the NWS discussions was the best thing since the weather radio. 

[Buddy1987]

Euro go out enough yet to confirm it shows something as well for next weekend?

[Nomz]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Euro go out enough yet to confirm it shows something as well for next weekend?

AIFS has something at like h300 but its a miller b

[stormtracker]

Doesn't seem like the Euro is biting  Has something much later but scoots way too far east

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Doesn't seem like the Euro is biting  Has something much later but scoots way too far east

It's got it, just buries it into the Gulf of Mexico and struggles to get it up the coast once it crosses over Florida. Goes OTS

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's got it, just buries it into the Gulf of Mexico and struggles to get it up the coast once it crosses over Florida. Goes OTS

Ah...don't know why I though tthat was "much" later

[Shad]

Not what the CMC and GFS had but it still has it....just way south

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I'm really interested in this one.   GFS wasn't as enthused as it was at 6z

Icon has it too.

[Amped]

The Euro will catch on as soon as we get Jebman on board.

[winter_warlock]

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's got it, just buries it into the Gulf of Mexico and struggles to get it up the coast once it crosses over Florida. Goes OTS

   Well seeing that southeast like that 10 days out is a good thing.  Has room to come nw.. unlike our current storm

[HighStakes]

Can't ever recall seeing entire Model runs through day 16 keep northern MD below freezing. Today's GFS did it.

[Stradivarious]

On 1/22/2026 at 12:22 PM, MillvilleWx said:

Feb 2006 was one of the greatest I-95 storms no one talks about. One of my all time favorites, hands down. 

That night I was playing in a band up in Baltimore, gig was over at 2 am ( yes, people actually came out to see us play) and I drove home to Arnold MD in the snow. Baltimore beltway was covered in 6 to 12 inches of snow. Yes, much lightning.. but I had never truly never experienced white out conditions before or after. Most of the time I could see the ground right in front of my ford van.. like 10 or 15 feet away.. but there were moments where it was like someone poured white paint on my windshield..I could not even see any of my hood just outside the windshield, it was blinding white, and it only flashed blind for a few seconds at a time..but I had to stop full on the road and wait. The switch to seeing 15 feet away to nothing was instantaneous, it was like the whiteout happened when the concentration of snow in the air reached a critical mass, there was nothing gradual about the switch. More than lightning, the instant switching to seeing 15 feet away to the windshield being a lit up like a white wall… and then back to being able to see the ground…. that was the real shocker.

[NorthArlington101]

Ens all have a little something... would say GEPS > AIFS Ens > GEFS > EPS in terms of most-to-least interesting.

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ens all have a little something... would say GEPS > AIFS Ens > GEFS > EPS in terms of most-to-least interesting.

AIFS has been deadly this winter so I'll take it in our corner

[NorthArlington101]

EURO Control on the weeklies hits us hard twice over the next 2 weeks... not including Sunday.

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO Control on the weeklies hits us hard twice over the next 2 weeks... not including Sunday.

 

 

CFS weeks 4,5,&6 are normal to AN precip and a -AO, -NAO, -EPO, +PNA combo straight through lol. This -AO cycle looks like it wants to follow the classic 45 day cycle. All this happens during our best snow climo. Feeling very confident more snow events are coming. Not chances... events... heh

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

CFS weeks 4,5,&6 are normal to AN precip and a -AO, -NAO, -EPO, +PNA combo straight through lol. This -AO cycle looks like it wants to follow the classic 45 day cycle. All this happens during our best snow climo. Feeling very confident more snow events are coming. Not chances... events... heh

Sounds like a classic +PDO Nino February. Might be an epic stretch coming up. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, DDweatherman said:

I like this window, think we’ll be tracking something.

i liked this weekends window 12-15 days out and that’s turning out ok, lets get on a heater. 

I liked it first. Its another Cape storm. 

The last one was a bit underwhelming, but a prelude to the one that's on our doorstep.

[csnavywx]

One of the reasons this is being detected early is probably because the primary shortwave is already an entity over the Pacific east of Japan.

[Maestrobjwa]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I liked it first. Its another Cape storm. 

The last one was a bit underwhelming, but a prelude to the one that's on our doorstep.

Wait I thought next weekend was @Ralph Wiggum's? 

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait I thought next weekend was @Ralph Wiggum's? 

If you want to claim a window for a storm, you cant just post a random op run and say ooh look a storm! lol ( not that Ralph did that, idk)

You do this-

 

[Heisy]

It's got it, just buries it into the Gulf of Mexico and struggles to get it up the coast once it crosses over Florida. Goes OTS

The euro is more aggressive with the end of week front, cold press etc. hopefully the spacing improves


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