January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TowsonWeather]

5 hours ago, WVclimo said:

Money shot

I really wish they'd pick a different color for "ZOMGZ INCREDIBLY HEAVY SNOWZ!" than PINK, lol...always gives me that momentary "mixing!?" panic.

[frd]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Cold Winter showed its hand when the Arctic was freezing this Summer.. In August we went sub-5000dm, which was the coldest N. Hemisphere H5 on record for Aug. You know the eastern US starting cooling down around that time, too. I ran the analogs, and it fits a perfect warm-to-cold season progression since 2012. 

So much for the early Fall worries regarding the extreme - PDO.  

Also of note is the continued deeper and deeper dive of the AO leading us to next week's bitter arctic invasion. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z ai gfs has our 1/29 Miller b as an early developer that hits us again. 

Op also has it but doesnt develop the Miller b quite as aggressively/early as the AI. This is a window to watch as a discrete threat is across most guidance now.

[Amped]

Ai gfs has something day 8-9

[frd]

Commodity Wx Group  @commoditywx

 

 

Euro and CFS weeklies show cold indications for 16-30 day based on top-matching upper level analogs, either Feb 2007 (Euro) or Feb 2015 (CFS).

 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Commodity Wx Group  @commoditywx

 

 

Euro and CFS weeklies show cold indications for 16-30 day based on top-matching upper level analogs, either Feb 2007 (Euro) or Feb 2015 (CFS).

 

 

Those two Februaries, 2007 and 2015, were extremely cold (especially 2015) around here.  The two coldest of that month in the 25 years I've lived in the area.  In 2007 we just missed a big snow for the Valentine's Day event but did get like 3" sleet that froze solid.  We also had a couple of other decent more minor events along with the cold.  In Feb. 2015, we scored better with snow relatively speaking.  If we get something on the order of those two, it could be quite a time here!

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS weeklies likes the 3rd week of February.

[LordBaltimore]

For the cold outbreak following the storm, at least on the GFS I've noticed a consistent pattern where the VA and even NC piedmont gets sub-zero lows and we're stuck in the single digits. This isn't elevation dependent since it's placing them in low elevation areas to the south and snowpack is high everywhere. Instead it looks like it's because of low-level winds that are calm down south but present at 925mb above Maryland. I've seen this same thing in forecasts after snow events last year and I still can't understand the dynamical reason for it. Is Emporia VA and thereabouts really a better place for vodka cold following a storm pass than MD? 

[mitchnick]

End of the GGEM 0z run is a real nail biter. Incredible closed trough in the south after historic snows trying to pull north the coastal. Wow!

[Ji]

Euro shows a hecs

[snowmagnet]

16 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Getting some practice on these setups. A game for the redux

Feb 2014 on steroids? 

[snowmagnet]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

Euro shows a hecs

For the following weekend? 

[Heisy]

For the following weekend? 

Almost every OP model has the same general look for the 31st-1st as our block retrogrades south.






.

[CAPE]

Still seeing a signal for a coastal storm for early Feb on ens guidance. I'm still thinking there is big potential for that window.

[Ji]

Still seeing a signal for a coastal storm for early Feb on ens guidance. I'm still thinking there is big potential for that window.

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, Ji said:

Seeing a storm on some op runs.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Still seeing a signal for a coastal storm for early Feb on ens guidance. I'm still thinking there is big potential for that window.

That one may yield better results for you. Hopefully it'll have a CCB that throws some of that back to us west.

[Terpeast]

This morning's weeklies went a bit warmer in February, but its cold predictions were too extreme to begin with. Still plenty cold, with a coastal signal around Feb 1 and then again another storm signal just after mid-Feb. March starts with a warm up.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

16 hours ago, frd said:

So much for the early Fall worries regarding the extreme - PDO.  

Also of note is the continued deeper and deeper dive of the AO leading us to next week's bitter arctic invasion. 

Yeah, 2 years in a row the extreme -PDO Fall was not a warm Winter pattern in the east. The only other comparable -PDO Fall in magnitude was 55-56 and that was a cold Dec-Jan in the east, too. 

[Ephesians2]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, 2 years in a row the extreme -PDO Fall was not a warm Winter pattern in the east. The only other comparable -PDO Fall in magnitude was 55-56 and that was a cold Dec-Jan in the east, too. 

Is the PDO even negative anymore? If so, nowhere near as much as it was a few months ago. We have warm water up against the west coast and while the waters off Japan are warm, they aren't as warm as they have been. 

[NorthArlington101]

The period HM was honking wasn't the storm this weekend really... it was next week and the first week or so of February. Food for thought.

[AlexD1990]

Might need to wait for this storm to form and move out of the way before getting a clearer picture of what may come behind it. sounds like we still have some tracking ahead of us, which is great news.

[NorthArlington101]

[Amped]

Gfs brewing something big down south at 216.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Gfs brewing something big down south at 216.

@CAPE smashed  

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Gfs brewing something big down south at 216.

This is the HM storm... 

[stormtracker]

Hmm, could be something to this one

[yoda]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Hmm, could be something to this one

Back to back snowstorms on weekends?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Pretty good agreement between GFS op and Euro op for 10 days out!

[Amped]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is the HM storm... 

Hm still posts?