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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion


snowfan
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1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Cold Winter showed its hand when the Arctic was freezing this Summer.. In August we went sub-5000dm, which was the coldest N. Hemisphere H5 on record for Aug. You know the eastern US starting cooling down around that time, too. I ran the analogs, and it fits a perfect warm-to-cold season progression since 2012. 

So much for the early Fall worries regarding the extreme - PDO.  

Also of note is the continued deeper and deeper dive of the AO leading us to next week's bitter arctic invasion. 

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

18z ai gfs has our 1/29 Miller b as an early developer that hits us again. 

Op also has it but doesnt develop the Miller b quite as aggressively/early as the AI. This is a window to watch as a discrete threat is across most guidance now.

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5 minutes ago, frd said:
Euro and CFS weeklies show cold indications for 16-30 day based on top-matching upper level analogs, either Feb 2007 (Euro) or Feb 2015 (CFS).
 
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Those two Februaries, 2007 and 2015, were extremely cold (especially 2015) around here.  The two coldest of that month in the 25 years I've lived in the area.  In 2007 we just missed a big snow for the Valentine's Day event but did get like 3" sleet that froze solid.  We also had a couple of other decent more minor events along with the cold.  In Feb. 2015, we scored better with snow relatively speaking.  If we get something on the order of those two, it could be quite a time here!

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