January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Does the EPS like any other windows or is it mostly from the 1/25-27 period?

You made me look. Dang, Eps even better than the 6z Gefs 24hr period!

But to answer your question, looks like a weak sign of a threat at the end of the run.

[Heisy]

6z Ai puts all its eggs into the 28-29 range

HECS setup




.

[NorthArlington101]

Next Monday standing out on the EPS - consistent threat window trending snowier. Ofc, that was also the case for today, and well…

[Blizzard of 93]

46 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Does the EPS like any other windows or is it mostly from the 1/25-27 period?

0z EPS also likes the period centered on the 28th. Here’s the 2 day snow for that time period.

[Blizzard of 93]

41 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You made me look. Dang, Eps even better than the 6z Gefs 24hr period!

But to answer your question, looks like a weak sign of a threat at the end of the run.

The 0z EPS is even better when you look at the 2 day period ending Monday to account for timing differences at this range.

[mitchnick]

6z Eps at the end of the 144hr run looks "right" if you know what I mean. Lol

Top is 6hr precip and bottom is 6hr snowfall. 

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS...for upcoming weekend.

Mannnn....fuck that model 

[bncho]

0z Euro had a pretty impactful ice storm

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z Euro had a pretty impactful ice storm

GFS Snow. Euro Ice. Canadian Snow. Somewhere in that mix is the truth. Cold and windy also a possibility I suppose. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Bee discussed but 0z eps looks fantastic for next weekend.  Looks to favor a clean snow event vs ice. 

[JVscotch]

6 minutes ago, Scraff said:

GFS Snow. Euro Ice. Canadian Snow. Somewhere in that mix is the truth. Cold and windy also a possibility I suppose. 

6z Euro definitely already showing what would lead to a snowier outcome down the road IMO compared to 00z. Less troughing in the northwest US, more press of the trough over the north and eastern US and the digging shortwave over southwest US.  All looked better.  

[LeesburgWx]

If we fail here again, we will belong on the same level as the Bills in the playoffs

[Scraff]

Thanks @JVscotch and @SomeguyfromTakomaPark  I needed more coffee, but yeah. Looks good to me. For fun, looking at the 6z Euro AI now. Whoa! 
 

ETA—for 1/29 that is. 

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

You made me look. Dang, Eps even better than the 6z Gefs 24hr period!

But to answer your question, looks like a weak sign of a threat at the end of the run.

This precip distribution looks a lot like…….I’m not going to say it.

[Kevin Reilly]

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

If we fail here again, we will belong on the same level as the Bills in the playoffs

Yes especially in overtime games! 

[poolz1]

Plenty to focus on in the medium range but hopefully we have this to look forward to as well.

[HighStakes]

We're just entering peak climo and there is a lot to be encouraged about as long as expectations are reasonable. 

[Terpeast]

Just looked at all ensembles this morning. Nothing really changed. Jan 22 never had support. Jan 25-28 window is what they are keying on. I think the warmer rainy cutter scenario is the least likely. Snow/ice storm most likely, with the likelihood of a suppressed system somewhere in between closer to the lower end. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

12 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yes especially in overtime games! 

If it fails I’m gonna need to see the EPS do a post “lost storm” press conference where it apologizes and says it let down the whole forum again. 

[HighStakes]

30 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just looked at all ensembles this morning. Nothing really changed. Jan 22 never had support. Jan 25-28 window is what they are keying on. I think the warmer rainy cutter scenario is the least likely. Snow/ice storm most likely, with the likelihood of a suppressed system somewhere in between closer to the lower end. 

That's the way I see it as well. We should have a few windows into February too. I think most areas will make a run at average totals when it's all said and done.

[CAPE]

Nice setup for the storm potential in the 25-26th window, with a shortwave dropping southward over the western ridge and some of the energy in the southwest possibly getting involved.

Big coastal storm potential here followed by another wave around Feb 1st. EPS advertising a very cold and active period upcoming.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Well, the last 3-4 pages were an "interesting" read!!  I swear some people in this place.  Thanks to those who kept it grounded and real, no reason to abandon everything due to different deterministic solutions a week or more out.

To lighten the mood and give some hope, today is apparently "World Snow Day"!!!  Gotta be worth something!! 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Plenty to focus on in the medium range but hopefully we have this to look forward to as well.

If the weeklies are correct, we’ll be mostly shielded from the canada torch and then winter ends on Feb 23 (unless march does something crazy)

[bncho]

FWIW, the CMCE, GEFS, EPS, and the EPS-AI all show DC with a mean of 6+" of snow

[frd]

CPC latest ensemble forecast for the AO have it forecasted to go to -4 with a great consensus of members.

Meanwhile the NAO is forecasted to go negative at the same time the subtropical jet stream becomes more active.

This will lead to an increased probability of a MECS in the time frame of interest,  as mentioned by others here.

Let's Go !!! 

 

 

 

 

[wxmvpete]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If the weeklies are correct, we’ll be mostly shielded from the canada torch and then winter ends on Feb 23 (unless march does something crazy)

I did find it interesting seeing the Day 8-14 CPC analogs and noting some of the Januarys/Februarys that would unfold as a result of this pattern. It is important to note that these seasons' ENSO states are different from year to year and what drove their corresponding storm tracks, moisture transports, and cold air available all differ to some degree. Also not every year listed caused a big storm. But just a 40,000ft look from above, seeing some of those events that unfold either during or say ~1-2 weeks following this analog pattern makes you go "huh...". Lastly, the correlation score isn't that high, so it is not a perfect match by any stretch.

[bncho]

@stormtracker how're ya doin? Are ya ready to do GFS PBP?

[stormtracker]

Barely functioning this AM.  What the hell happened in here last night??  I see posts were hidden.  Shenanigans!  

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

@stormtracker how're ya doin? Are ya ready to do GFS PBP?

I'm half dead to be honest.   I'm only here because I was dying of thirst and got water.

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Barely functioning this AM.  What the hell happened in here last night??  I see posts were hidden.  Shenanigans!  

Idk but I muted 2 people… maybe can guess who? It’s been much quieter haha