January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Where I agree with you is that if you pre-define a synoptic setup as simple (moist southerly flow into a cold dome), then it is comparatively simple. We do get hung up on semantics. But I also think we oversimplify and broad-brush weather events with terms that are too general. 

It's complicated in a comparatively simplistic way 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Oddly enough once the snow stops he doesn't care.  He will complain 3 days after a HECS though if there is nothing else to track on the models  

I think he had almost continuous hissy fits after the Pre Christmas blizzard until the late Jan snowstorm  in the 2009-10 winter, which ended up the snowiest ever for many of us.

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Cold dry winters were always a thing.... but it hurts that much more when 80% of our winters are warm now...we can't afford to waste cold ones.  

Seems like a good shot at BN January. Impressive run of predominantly BN temps in our area going back to August. Honestly can’t recall when the last similar period was. Of course this period wasn’t BN relative to 30-40 years ago…

Anyway, would suck to have BN December and January and come out of it with low single digit snowfall. But can’t say the analogs for this year didn’t have cold/dry potential.

[blizzardmeiser]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think he had almost continuous hissy fits after the Pre Christmas blizzard until the late Jan snowstorm  in the 2009-10 winter, which ended up the snowiest ever for many of us.

I recall he graded 09-10 winter as a B.  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think he had almost continuous hissy fits after the Pre Christmas blizzard until the late Jan snowstorm  in the 2009-10 winter, which ended up the snowiest ever for many of us.

Not only that...but when that threat in early March failed he said it "ruined the winter" 

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not only that...but when that threat in early March failed he said it "ruined the winter" 

this post title from after that winter sums up Ji's entire persona quite well

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oddly enough once the snow stops he doesn't care.  He will complain 3 days after a HECS though if there is nothing else to track on the models  

I can take it he was completely insufferable in February 2016?

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

this post title from after that winter sums up Ji's entire persona quite well

 

Just reading that makes me feel like I need second hand therapy 

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

The NArlingStormchaserRalph Storm

My window was 23rd-25th. Anything after that I toss to someone else. I might be tilting too much today to be deserving of a storm anyway.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I can take it he was completely insufferable in February 2016?

I don't remember that one as much...but...I was happily married at the time, and we both had 2 weeks off work...so I was...umm....busy 

[Eskimo Joe]

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Imho thats going to be more an Aleutian low signal than an Alaska proper vortex. That look presented actually gets us in +PNA territory and verbatim would move the PNA ridge axis near the benchmark (Idaho iirc). I would be ok with the epo easing a bit as this look takes shape going into the waning days of Jan/early Feb.

One thing seems certain at least, anyone that declared winter over is likely in for a rude awakening shortly.

 

41 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the Pacific trough pumps the PNA... that's part of the reason why it usually torches after big storms as the jet overextends

Thank you both. I really appreciate the explanation!

[stormy]

37 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

40% at day 9 huh? That is impressive lol 

I agree!   After pondering, I just reduced that 40% to 30% for my newsletter which sails at 4 pm.  If it still populates with significance at 24 hrs., that 30% can increase to 50%.

Of course, some weenies are already hyped to 80%, which is a recipe for heartbreak. 

Some of those read my newsletter. That's another reason to drop to 30% with a caveat about 9 days out. Snow-lovers thrive on hope.  I don't wish to be the snow grinch to others.

30% can be a happy median.  40% is a little too bullish.

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Thank you both. I really appreciate the explanation!

What would make a difference is whether that pacific trough breaks through. If it stops short in the GOA, it'll keep the +PNA ridge going. If it breaks through into western canada, the +PNA will break down and we go warmer (speaking generally across CONUS, east may be slowest to warm even in that scenario).

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I can take it he was completely insufferable in February 2016?

Did you mean January 2016?

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did you mean January 2016?

Did you mean November to March every year? 

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

What would make a difference is whether that pacific trough breaks through. If it stops short in the GOA, it'll keep the +PNA ridge going. If it breaks through into western canada, the +PNA will break down and we go warmer (speaking generally across CONUS, east may be slowest to warm even in that scenario).

Copy that. Appreciate the context.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[bncho]

NAM looking decent

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Webb still insistent that he thinks this trends NW at the end. He’s had a couple good calls on this specific scenario before. One eye ope 

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended.  Impressive 30 day upper height anomaly.

[ravensrule]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just reading that makes me feel like I need second hand therapy 

I'm always using one hand, but i can surely lend you the other. 

[stormtracker]

 I leave this place for 3 hours and just what the hell....

Gooning and looksmaxxing.    Just....stop it goddammit!  

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

 I leave this place for 3 hours and just what the hell....

Gooning and looksmaxxing.    Just....stop it goddammit!  

I agree. This is ridiculous. Y'all use the word goon and looksmaxxing like y'all discovered fire or something...

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

 I leave this place for 3 hours and just what the hell....

Gooning and looksmaxxing.    Just....stop it goddammit!  

The fox can never leave the henhouse. 

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Webb still insistent that he thinks this trends NW at the end. He’s had a couple good calls on this specific scenario before. One eye ope 

Welp hopefully the extra data well either shift the storm over Ohio or Africa 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

I agree. This is ridiculous. Y'all use the word goon and looksmaxxing like y'all discovered fire or something...

 

[bncho]

@SnowenOutThere will commence his ultimate plan if you don't stop this...

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

At the risk of semantics...SO perhaps not "simple" but rather simplER? That is if you were to compare overruning to a phase event which is easiER? @CAPE or anybody else have thoughts on that?

An already existent modest low pressure over Atlanta moving northeast is infinitely better for DC and far easier to predict with  consistency and confirmation. The northern snd southern interaction and phase jumping from west of applchns to off the coast Way more difficult with many moving parts 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't remember that one as much...but...I was happily married at the time, and we both had 2 weeks off work...so I was...umm....busy 

I remember your children loved playing in the snow!

[TSSN+]

Rgem is so far west wtf is the deal with these models man.