Solution Man Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Nothing like the good ole hr 300 storm on gfs We got this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: How if it is a blend of models what model is really showing anything good enough to make it a hit? Magic. I think it heavily weights meso models? @high risk? So maybe the SREFs pummel us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Nothing like the good ole hr 300 storm on gfs Only took 300 hours but it finally gets us. Although overall the run is colder and there's some close calls prior to this. This combined with the ensembles in this time frame I think should give some optimism. It's never easy for snow in these parts lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 So this is actually pretty darn close to what the composite looked like for the analogs I used for my winter forecast. But the snowfall results through mid January were better across those analogs. This isn't bad...yes its a dry look...we're on the backside of the trough, its definitely not perfect. But predominantly -AO/NAO, a poleward pacific ridge, not a crazy hostile PNA for a change...this isn't a shutout look. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's never easy for snow in these parts There's a reason the big dogs are a once a decade occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, JenkinsJinkies said: There's a reason the big dogs are a once a decade occurrence. He'll im not even talking about big dogs lol. Snow in general is hard in these parts. Altesst the last 8 to 10 years... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, eduggs said: This cracks me up every time. There's always a better pattern or threat a bit further out. We are biased by the fuzzyness of future possibilities. As soon as we get near enough to see the flaws in a close threat, we move on to the next. And of course our glimpse of the next with the rosy tinted glasses of ensemble average and smoothing hides the flaws of the next one until it's in range. It happens over and over and over. Somehow it's a lesson in human psychology that is difficult to learn. The reality is we just don't know which will work out best if any at all. It's still possible Sunday ends up the biggest event of the year for some. What cracks me up is the myth of models as a viable forecasting tool or method for mid Atlantic winter low pressures. I think we have been through now its mandatory cover all bases for continued funding mode . What is still in our corner though is this cold air plunge does appear to want to set off a low from down south to along the coast. Thats way better for us than a phasing job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 EuroAI has 1” to west shore of the Bay more or less. Maybe a tiny bit less than 6z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Euro AI is more NW than 6z, even though snow amounts are more paltry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 31 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: How if it is a blend of models what model is really showing anything good enough to make it a hit? Check the 15z run. I think it takes a couple cycles to update. 12z probably still included the last good GFS run. It does seem like it is weighted towards the GFS output to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I'll just post it lol- 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Euro appears to be a bit more west so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: Unlike some here, I'm not losing sleep over this stuff. If its going to snow however, I'm going to look in the direction of what 20 years of studying this hobby has taught me to look for.... favorable teleconnections, a good source airmass, and precipitation/moisture streams being present. Having strong ENS support at "range" is a part of that, and right now we have it... so yes, many would argue it's our most favorable window of the season with support. Until its not. Small model input errors amplify with time. Even looking a few days into the future, chaos wins by default. That's why until you can control the weather, it will continue to be unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 trough digs more SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: I'll just post it lol- The negative Hoco/Moco deathband. FML! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: The negative Hoco/Moco deathband. FML! That map is pretty paltry for most of the region. It might be too optimistic lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Euro OP looks terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The 2m anomaly for Jan 24 - 31 on the GFS changed dramatically from 06 - 12z. Much colder! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 EURO AI says enjoy your cold and then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So this is actually pretty darn close to what the composite looked like for the analogs I used for my winter forecast. But the snowfall results through mid January were better across those analogs. This isn't bad...yes its a dry look...we're on the backside of the trough, its definitely not perfect. But predominantly -AO/NAO, a poleward pacific ridge, not a crazy hostile PNA for a change...this isn't a shutout look. we were promised warmer and wetter winters with you know.....now they are colder and cant even buy a rain drop 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 does this give us anything? why cant we get a storm that just goes up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 An impressive showing from the GFS this week, going 0–2 within 100 hours of the phantom storm’s onset. Forecasting confidence remains high; accuracy optional. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 wasnt this a cutter yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Only 216 out folks lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Euro has a monster winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Only 216 out folks lol love it---long duration multi facet event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 35 minutes ago, bncho said: trough digs more SW Doesn't matter we get the vortmax to setup across the upper ohio valley which ruins any chance to get neg tilt and a strong wave coming in behind it which limits how much time it would've had anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Euro has a severe winter storm for us. 24th to 27th....snow to ice to heavy snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Only 216 out folks lol thats just the appetizer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Long range Euro showing potential. Gets a nice area wide win which is desperately needed. Not shown on the map is .1-.3 inches of freezing rain between the two parts of the storm 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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