January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Nothing like the good ole hr 300 storm  on gfs 

We got this

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

How if it is a blend of models what model is really showing anything good enough to make it a hit?

Magic. I think it heavily weights meso models? @high risk? So maybe the SREFs pummel us?

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Nothing like the good ole hr 300 storm  on gfs 

Only took 300 hours but it finally gets us.

Although overall the run is colder and there's some close calls prior to this.

This combined with the ensembles in this time frame I think should give some optimism. 

It's never easy for snow in these parts lol.

[psuhoffman]

So this is actually pretty darn close to what the composite looked like for the analogs I used for my winter forecast.  But the snowfall results through mid January were better across those analogs.  This isn't bad...yes its a dry look...we're on the backside of the trough, its definitely not perfect.  But predominantly -AO/NAO, a poleward pacific ridge, not a crazy hostile PNA for a change...this isn't a shutout look. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's never easy for snow in these parts

There's a reason the big dogs are a once a decade occurrence.

[Chris78]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

There's a reason the big dogs are a once a decade occurrence.

He'll im not even talking about big dogs lol.

Snow in general is hard in these parts.  Altesst the last 8 to 10 years...

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

This cracks me up every time. There's always a better pattern or threat a bit further out. We are biased by the fuzzyness of future possibilities. As soon as we get near enough to see the flaws in a close threat, we move on to the next. And of course our glimpse of the next with the rosy tinted glasses of ensemble average and smoothing hides the flaws of the next one until it's in range. It happens over and over and over. Somehow it's a lesson in human psychology that is difficult to learn.

The reality is we just don't know which will work out best if any at all. It's still possible Sunday ends up the biggest event of the year for some.

What cracks me up is the myth of  models as a viable forecasting tool or method for mid Atlantic winter low pressures.  I think we have been  through now its mandatory cover  all bases for continued funding mode .  What is still in our corner though is this cold air plunge does appear to want to set off a low from down south to along the coast.  Thats way better for us than a phasing job. 

[WxUSAF]

EuroAI has 1” to west shore of the Bay more or less. Maybe a tiny bit less than 6z.

[bncho]

Euro AI is more NW than 6z, even though snow amounts are more paltry

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

How if it is a blend of models what model is really showing anything good enough to make it a hit?

Check the 15z run. I think it takes a couple cycles to update. 12z probably still included the last good GFS run.

It does seem like it is weighted towards the GFS output to me.

[CAPE]

I'll just post it lol-

[SnowenOutThere]

Euro appears to be a bit more west so far. 

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, DDweatherman said:

Unlike some here, I'm not losing sleep over this stuff. If its going to snow however, I'm going to look in the direction of what 20 years of studying this hobby has taught me to look for.... favorable teleconnections, a good source airmass, and precipitation/moisture streams being present. Having strong ENS support at "range" is a part of that, and right now we have it... so yes, many would argue it's our most favorable window of the season with support. Until its not.

Small model input errors amplify with time. Even looking a few days into the future, chaos wins by default. That's why until you can control the weather, it will continue to be unpredictable. 

[bncho]

trough digs more SW

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'll just post it lol-

The negative Hoco/Moco deathband. FML! 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

The negative Hoco/Moco deathband. FML! 

That map is pretty paltry for most of the region. It might be too optimistic lol. 

[mob1]

Euro OP looks terrible 

[stormy]

The 2m anomaly for Jan 24 - 31 on the GFS changed dramatically from 06 - 12z.  Much colder!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EURO AI says enjoy your cold and then rain.

[Ji]

53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So this is actually pretty darn close to what the composite looked like for the analogs I used for my winter forecast.  But the snowfall results through mid January were better across those analogs.  This isn't bad...yes its a dry look...we're on the backside of the trough, its definitely not perfect.  But predominantly -AO/NAO, a poleward pacific ridge, not a crazy hostile PNA for a change...this isn't a shutout look. 

we were promised warmer and wetter winters with you know.....now they are colder and cant even buy a rain drop

[Ji]

does this give us anything? why cant we get a storm that just goes up the coast?

[rjvanals]

An impressive showing from the GFS this week, going 0–2 within 100 hours of the phantom storm’s onset. Forecasting confidence remains high; accuracy optional.

[Ji]

wasnt this a cutter yesterday?

[TSSN+]

Only 216 out folks lol

 

[Ji]

Euro has a monster winter storm

[Ji]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Only 216 out folks lol

 

love it---long duration multi facet event

 

[SnowenOutThere]

35 minutes ago, bncho said:

trough digs more SW

Doesn't matter we get the vortmax to setup across the upper ohio valley which ruins any chance to get neg tilt and a strong wave coming in behind it which limits how much time it would've had anyways. 

[Ji]

Euro has a severe winter storm for us. 24th to 27th....snow to ice to heavy snow lol

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Only 216 out folks lol

 

thats just the appetizer

[SnowenOutThere]

Long range Euro showing potential. Gets a nice area wide win which is desperately needed. Not shown on the map is .1-.3 inches of freezing rain between the two parts of the storm