January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wonder if your time period would've worked out on the 18z Euro. It has a completely different (and better) look than 12z

Still a week or so out so more of a chance the current runs don't have the actual outcome figured out.

[WxUSAF]

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Figures the top analog would be from the winter of 01/02...kiss of death right there.

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Figures the top analog would be from the winter of 01/02...kiss of death right there.

Since when have analogs really helped us with any storm lol 

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Which means the Icon, Ukie, and Canadian outperformed the Euro and Gfs IF this forecast holds. 

Notable takeaway for the winter maybe.   

 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Pretty persistent signal across guidance over the last few runs for this type of setup. Big storm potential with significant moisture overrunning cold HP.

 

 GFS always shows a nice storm 2 weeks out, till it gets closer then it changes 

[baltosquid]

Rough suite. Not much more to say. Still can hold on to this being a complex setup to maybe rescue it from here but... bleh.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

No, we knew this winter was going to be a La Niña. 

Ok then I think we said that the winter before that , Or the winter before that.. or the winter before that... Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Since when have analogs really helped us with any storm lol 

The problem is most of the applicable analogs the last several years have been  negative ones! So the analogs did their job...it's just we haven't had many good ones pop up

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The problem is most of the applicable analogs the last several years have been  negative ones! So the analogs did their job...it's just we haven't had many good ones pop up

Trying to make an analog set for next year, 14-15, 02-03, and 86-87 are in it.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Trying to make an analog set for next year, 14-15, 02-03, and 86-87 are in it.

Riiggghhhtttt lol

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Riiggghhhtttt lol

There’s also 23-24 and 97-98 lol

[mitchnick]

Eps snowfall went poof at 18z vs last few runs. Rough hobby trying to predict the future.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps snowfall went poof at 18z vs last few runs. Rough hobby trying to predict the future.

Trough is too far north and east…like always now. But at least we get wind.

[mitchnick]

Just now, 87storms said:

Trough is too far north and east…like always now. But at least we get wind.

That last part is never a problem at my age.

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Trough is too far north and east…like always now. But at least we get wind.

We ALWAYS have wind. We could have a 1050 high right overtop of us and we'd have 20 mph winds.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

We ALWAYS have wind. We could have a 1050 high right overtop of us and we'd have 20 mph winds.

That too, but I think we just really need a return of the stj. Met a friend at Charles Town today and noticed the Potomac and Shenandoah looked pretty low.

[Terpeast]

500mb closed low pass north of us. Can’t say I didn’t warn about this. 

[frd]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

500mb closed low pass north of us. Can’t say I didn’t warn about this. 

This is common in Ninas, as most already know.  A hard hobby tracking snow threats, especially in a Nina. 

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

500mb closed low pass north of us. Can’t say I didn’t warn about this. 

Death knell for widespread snow

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I am liking how the extended range is looking on current modeling. ~Jan 27th timeframe. Not real strong anomalies, but the placement of things looks good

[TSSN+]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

500mb closed low pass north of us. Can’t say I didn’t warn about this. 

You don’t have to rub it in, we already down and hurtin lol 

[Blizzard of 93]

Yup, I forgot it’s all over & already failed, lol…

Panic room is one thread over there…

[Amped]

I have a tough time seeing how the Euro ended so differently than 12z and 6z. It seems like it suddenly turned the 500mb energy east this run instead of digging it southwest. 

Look at the lead vortex over the Michigan UP instead of Wisconsin like 6z and 12z. This means it doesnt lower heights to the south of the second wave, possibly causing it to turn east also.

[ravensrule]

38 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

500mb closed low pass north of us. Can’t say I didn’t warn about this. 

So it’s set in stone, it can’t change?. 

[ravensrule]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I am liking how the extended range is looking on current modeling. ~Jan 27th timeframe. Not real strong anomalies, but the placement of things looks good

Who hacked your account Chuck?. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, ravensrule said:

So it’s set in stone, it can’t change?. 

It'll be set in stone in about 14 hours.

[LongRanger]

we need more \ and less /

Earlier, there were comments about ULL capture of a surface low. FWIW, I recall that happening with the Janury 20, 1978 nor'easter.

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, LongRanger said:

we need more \ and less /

Earlier, there were comments about ULL capture of a surface low. FWIW, I recall that happening with the Janury 20, 1978 nor'easter.

You remember that?. Are you Mitch’s father?. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Who hacked your account Chuck?. 

It's all about the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern. There are strong patterns in certain places in the hemisphere when DC/Baltimore gets >7" snowstorms. When the pattern is cold, with room to spare, long range threats/patterns are worth following. We have -AO tendency this Winter, December was colder than average in the Northeast and we are probably colder than average in the 2nd half of January. I've been pretty bullish on the Winter pattern general, although the STJ is really dry. The last few days of January has potential, imo. And maybe early February. ENSO subsurface Kelvin wave is occurring, and that historically correlates with more +PNA in the north pacific. Give us -AO running south into a ridge over Greenland, with a 50/50 low under it, and the pattern looks suddenly favorable. Unfortunately it's 15 days out, but it does have support with things actually occurring, like in ENSO, and Winter -AO tendency from -SLP 60-90N this past warm season (correlation good since 2012).