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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

snowfan

By snowfan,
in Mid Atlantic

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stormtracker
stormtracker

Shut the fuck up

MillvilleWx
MillvilleWx

I came in here to see what y'all were thinking about this 12z suite which looks pretty dang good to my trained eye and....... I hope some of y'all received Valium for Christmas. Good lord. 

high risk
high risk

THIS.   Even though our resident third graders want to moan that poor forecasts show that NWP is useless, there are certain patterns that for whatever reason just aren't predictable.   The fact that a

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

Yea, I'd wait until the Euro throws that type of solution our way.  GFS and Euro aren't really that much different at the upper levels, but the GFS is waffling between going full tilt versus a more common solution from the Euro (late phaser).  We're due for uncommon, though.

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
Posted

I would have to think that the GFS is cracked out, but it was able to actually revert back to a 00z-like solution. combine that with the trends on the AIFS and the GEFS becoming way more amped and I'm a bit intrigued. I would like to see any other guidance entertain it... AIFS/ICON are close and UKMET made a big amped move. certainly possible, but temper enthusiasm for now

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

I would have to think that the GFS is cracked out, but it was able to actually revert back to a 00z-like solution. combine that with the trends on the AIFS and the GEFS becoming way more amped and I'm a bit intrigued. I would like to see any other guidance entertain it... AIFS/ICON are close and UKMET made a big amped move. certainly possible, but temper enthusiasm for now

Well said.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, bncho said:

CAPE storm 2-6"

lol its not really my storm(and if it is it better do better than 1.5" in my yard)

Several days ago I said I liked the advertised h5 look around the 20th for a winter storm a bit more than mid month. Ofc it looks somewhat different now. Both windows could snow on us.. Hopefully the other guidance gets as enthused as recent GFS runs.

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WesternFringe

WesternFringe

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, stormy said:

GFS on steroids!   This won't happen.

 I'll take my 8 inches on Thursday and be satisfied for January.

Well,  I am in Severe Drought and need the moisture.   Bring it on!!

Well, I live in the same county as you and we are getting poured on right now with forecasts for up to 2”, so hopefully today helps a bunch!

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol its not really my storm(and if it is it better do better than that in my yard)

Several days ago I said I liked the advertised h5 look around the 20th for a winter storm a bit more than mid month. Ofc it looks somewhat different now. Both windows could snow on us.. Hopefully the other guidance gets as enthused as recent GFS runs.

It’s yours buddy. Sorry.   

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Mount Holly has KEY messages in their AFD lol. Number 3 below-

KEY MESSAGE 3...A strong frontal passage is expected later Wednesday with the potential of a coastal storm for Thursday and Friday as a secondary low develops off the coast. Impacts are very uncertain at this time depending how close the low tracks to the coast. By the middle of the week, an amplified upper level weather pattern is expected to develop of the eastern third of the United States. A strengthening and deepening upper level trough will be located over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, stretching all the way down toward the Gulf Coast by Wednesday night. At the surface, it is fairly confident, that a primary area of low pressure will be tracking across Ontario and Quebec with cold front trailing back across the Appalachians. This at the very least will lead to some shower activity across the area on Wednesday. Temperatures look to be several degrees above average, where highs will likely top out in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Beyond Wednesday though, the pattern becomes highly variable and the differences amongst forecast guidance is fairly significant with regards to timing and location of upper level and surface features. While the upper level pattern is expected to shift east with time for the latter part of the week...what exactly happens with progression of the pattern is yet to be seen. For example, the 10/00Z GFS is the most aggressive with the pattern aloft, with a cut- off upper low tracking tracking across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday with secondary surface low cyclogenesis ongoing right along the Mid- Atlantic coast. This scenario would likely bring widespread impacts of some sort to the area. Meanwhile, the 10/00Z ECMWF and CMC are both less amplified and aggressive with the trough, simply swinging the base of the trough off the coast with any secondary low development shunted well out into the western Atlantic. This scenario would likely equate to minimal impacts to the area. Ensemble guidance though, does support secondary coastal low development, so this system will need to be closely watched over the coming days to see how close this system may be to our coast. For now, have followed closely to NBM guidance which essentially carries a 20-30% chance of rain and/or snow across the entire region Wednesday night into Thursday night.

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Well, I live in the same county as you and we are getting poured on right now with forecasts for up to 2”, so hopefully today helps a bunch!

I started out slow but serious rates during the past hour have bumped me up to around .50".

I'm down about 8 inches since June.

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