rjvanals Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago It’s good to remember we do complicated setups for snow extremely well around here 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago GFS on steroids! This won't happen. I'll take my 8 inches on Thursday and be satisfied for January. Well, I am in Severe Drought and need the moisture. Bring it on!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago @stormtrackerwhere you been, we got FOLKS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Yea, I'd wait until the Euro throws that type of solution our way. GFS and Euro aren't really that much different at the upper levels, but the GFS is waffling between going full tilt versus a more common solution from the Euro (late phaser). We're due for uncommon, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago I would have to think that the GFS is cracked out, but it was able to actually revert back to a 00z-like solution. combine that with the trends on the AIFS and the GEFS becoming way more amped and I'm a bit intrigued. I would like to see any other guidance entertain it... AIFS/ICON are close and UKMET made a big amped move. certainly possible, but temper enthusiasm for now 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Just now, brooklynwx99 said: I would have to think that the GFS is cracked out, but it was able to actually revert back to a 00z-like solution. combine that with the trends on the AIFS and the GEFS becoming way more amped and I'm a bit intrigued. I would like to see any other guidance entertain it... AIFS/ICON are close and UKMET made a big amped move. certainly possible, but temper enthusiasm for now Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 7 minutes ago, rjvanals said: It’s good to remember we do complicated setups for snow extremely well around here You mean you don't trust a bombogenesis, early phasing Miller B? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: @stormtrackerwhere you been, we got FOLKS Models showing what we want and Randy's not around lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 minute ago, 87storms said: You mean you don't trust a bombogenesis, early phasing Miller B? Those always work well around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 36 minutes ago, bncho said: CAPE storm 2-6" lol its not really my storm(and if it is it better do better than 1.5" in my yard) Several days ago I said I liked the advertised h5 look around the 20th for a winter storm a bit more than mid month. Ofc it looks somewhat different now. Both windows could snow on us.. Hopefully the other guidance gets as enthused as recent GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Well storm number 1 is only 120 hours away. It's not like it's out in the fantasy range. I'm wondering what LWX will say about it in their disco . I just wish other models would come on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: @stormtrackerwhere you been, we got FOLKS At a work thingy. Won’t be able to pbp until 18z. Hopefully I’ll get a break for the euro. It’s good vibes today. Seems to usually be the case when Ji misses a cycle. Coincidence. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 7 minutes ago, stormy said: GFS on steroids! This won't happen. I'll take my 8 inches on Thursday and be satisfied for January. Well, I am in Severe Drought and need the moisture. Bring it on!! Well, I live in the same county as you and we are getting poured on right now with forecasts for up to 2”, so hopefully today helps a bunch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol its not really my storm(and if it is it better do better than that in my yard) Several days ago I said I liked the advertised h5 look around the 20th for a winter storm a bit more than mid month. Ofc it looks somewhat different now. Both windows could snow on us.. Hopefully the other guidance gets as enthused as recent GFS runs. It’s yours buddy. Sorry. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Well storm number 1 is only 120 hours away. It's not like it's out in the fantasy range. I'm wondering what LWX will say about it in their disco If I had to guess the word uncertainty will be used no less than 5 times (as it should) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: If I had to guess the word uncertainty will be used at least twice (as it should) Yeah they use that word ALOT! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 23 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ukmet not doing it this run but h5 is a marked improvement over 0z. Trends This is very close to a beast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Mount Holly has KEY messages in their AFD lol. Number 3 below- KEY MESSAGE 3...A strong frontal passage is expected later Wednesday with the potential of a coastal storm for Thursday and Friday as a secondary low develops off the coast. Impacts are very uncertain at this time depending how close the low tracks to the coast. By the middle of the week, an amplified upper level weather pattern is expected to develop of the eastern third of the United States. A strengthening and deepening upper level trough will be located over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, stretching all the way down toward the Gulf Coast by Wednesday night. At the surface, it is fairly confident, that a primary area of low pressure will be tracking across Ontario and Quebec with cold front trailing back across the Appalachians. This at the very least will lead to some shower activity across the area on Wednesday. Temperatures look to be several degrees above average, where highs will likely top out in the upper 40s to low 50s. Beyond Wednesday though, the pattern becomes highly variable and the differences amongst forecast guidance is fairly significant with regards to timing and location of upper level and surface features. While the upper level pattern is expected to shift east with time for the latter part of the week...what exactly happens with progression of the pattern is yet to be seen. For example, the 10/00Z GFS is the most aggressive with the pattern aloft, with a cut- off upper low tracking tracking across the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday with secondary surface low cyclogenesis ongoing right along the Mid- Atlantic coast. This scenario would likely bring widespread impacts of some sort to the area. Meanwhile, the 10/00Z ECMWF and CMC are both less amplified and aggressive with the trough, simply swinging the base of the trough off the coast with any secondary low development shunted well out into the western Atlantic. This scenario would likely equate to minimal impacts to the area. Ensemble guidance though, does support secondary coastal low development, so this system will need to be closely watched over the coming days to see how close this system may be to our coast. For now, have followed closely to NBM guidance which essentially carries a 20-30% chance of rain and/or snow across the entire region Wednesday night into Thursday night. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 5 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Well, I live in the same county as you and we are getting poured on right now with forecasts for up to 2”, so hopefully today helps a bunch! I started out slow but serious rates during the past hour have bumped me up to around .50". I'm down about 8 inches since June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 26 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: My ex-wife she's the spawn of Satan lol Apparently, she converted you since you are now a warlock. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago WB 12Z GFS amazing run!!!! Guess I should make a big breakfast and clean the house Sat am. More often.... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Apparently, she converted you since you are now a warlock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS amazing run!!!! Guess I should make a big breakfast and clean the house Sat am. More often.... That will keep people from jumping off a cliff..... At least till 18z lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS amazing run!!!! Guess I should make a big breakfast and clean the house Sat am. More often.... Poor Gordonsville, VA. Even Cuckoo and Bumpass get a few inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago AIFS is a little better for the first storm and likes the CAPE storm a good deal 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AIFS is a little better for the first storm and likes the CAPE storm a good deal Some temp issues for storm 2… here is the period. A little less than 1” is storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS amazing run!!!! Guess I should make a big breakfast and clean the house Sat am. More often.... #jackpot 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Wes just said less than 10% chance of an inch on Jis FB page lol. No wonder he's missing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Did the monster storm 50 miles east of OC get taken off the board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Wes just said less than 10% chance of an inch on Jis FB page lol. No wonder he's missing Wes also lives in Calvert County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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