January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

In fact slightly below works better

Slightly above even works for us too.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I like the potential around day 10 on the EPS, 0z euro op close to something too. 

[87storms]

How’s 2026/27 looking?

[IronTy]

Even JB is predicting a warmup by D10.  Could be that the natural gas futures bottom is in.  

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Even JB is predicting a warmup by D10.  Could be that the natural gas futures bottom is in.  

Gefs say that. Eps says otherwise and Geps is back and forth resulting in near normal.

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs say that. Eps says otherwise and Geps is back and forth resulting in near normal.

Feel familiar?

[bncho]

what in the doom and gloom did i wake up to?

 

[aldie 22]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs say that. Eps says otherwise and Geps is back and forth resulting in near normal.

Sounds like a normal transitional period where models struggle while weenies use every change as a reason to cliff dive. I guess this really is everyone's first winter on these boards

[bncho]

you guys are dumb

[Eskimo Joe]

06z Euro tries to give some light snow north of I-66 on New Years' Day. Wouldn't be much, a coating to one inch at most, but it would be great to get something.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Sounds like a normal transitional period where models struggle while weenies use every change as a reason to cliff dive. I guess this really is everyone's first winter on these boards

Don't forget that excitement was initiated by the click-baiting internet mets. And remember I posted in response to a decent 5H on the Eps it was important to know how it got there.

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

06z Euro tries to give some light snow north of I-66 on New Years' Day. Wouldn't be much, a coating to one inch at most, but it would be great to get something.

No support for it so ya toss 

[bncho]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

No support for it so ya toss 

I would say that the only thing that might give it credibility is how adamant the Euro has been on that coating.

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't forget that excitement was initiated by the click-baiting internet mets. And remember I posted in response to a decent 5H on the Eps it was important to know how it got there.

True but all it really means to me is we don't know yet what's going to happen. All we do know is that Ji will act like an asshat and Bob Chill will think its funny 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

True but all it really means to me is we don't know yet what's going to happen. All we do know is that Ji will act like an asshat and Bob Chill will think its funny 

That sums it up.

[Solution Man]

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

As the Aleutian ridge dies and the jet extends, western Canada’s major cold pool will get eroded. But once the EPO ridge establishes cross polar flow, it will rebuild quickly. We’re not getting some super charged PAC jet blasting into Alberta and totally torching the continent.

Well said. Here's the visualization:

 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Is the optimism for January genuinely gone or are the weenies just having another hissy fit?

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is the optimism for January genuinely gone or are the weenies just having another hissy fit?

They're having a hissy fit. Plain and simple.

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is the optimism for January genuinely gone or are the weenies just having another hissy fit?

the latter

[bncho]

12z GFS at D10 actually a decent attempt at something

[clskinsfan]

RGEM on board for some New Years day NOVA flurries.

[stormy]

Unfortunately, the GFS believes that the drought persists for at least another 10 days..............

[WEATHER53]

11 hours ago, Ji said:

So we’re out to January 14 now? Noted

Yep

as I suggested.  First it was the 7th, now 14th, next up 21  then Guaranteed Rockin  Feb. 

Thats simply how it works now. 

 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z GFS at D10 actually a decent attempt at something

0z EPS has a very nice look for Jan 9 and lo and behold the GFS just misses a big phasing coastal at that time and the GGEM is about to go full Jan 2016 on our asses at the same time. 

[SnowenOutThere]

People sleeping on the 240 hour CMC. Would be an absolute smackdown 

[TSSN+]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

People sleeping on the 240 hour CMC. Would be an absolute smackdown 

Not sleeping on it. It’s just the cmc at 240. 

[T. August]

I don’t have much to add other than people much more knowledgeable than I were saying 2nd week of January was when things would get active. Not sure why people are freaking out. It sucks to waste a week but it is what it is. We’ve been in much worse situations at this time in the season, with zero snowfall.

[Kevin Reilly]

We just can’t know yet!  I think the current monster storm in the Great Lakes needs to unwind before we understand where the pieces will fall.

official:

Patience required, but I think it’s coming! 
 

“Folks” 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, T. August said:

I don’t have much to add other than people much more knowledgeable than I were saying 2nd week of January was when things would get active. Not sure why people are freaking out. It sucks to waste a week but it is what it is. We’ve been in much worse situations at this time in the season, with zero snowfall.

It's understandable to a point, we've been stuck in a nearly decade long pattern of fails and heart breaking last minute rug pulls. That being said, the hissy fits over a single op model run beyond HR240 not showing a Top 10 Miller A are exhausting.