January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[soadforecasterx]

At hour 96 this is alot of change for the last 5 runs. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Once again the brunt of the warmup is to our west.

Torch??     40s and 50s isnt torch.  Mild yes but not a torch lol and it won't last but a few days 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Torch??     40s and 50s isnt torch.  Mild yes but not a torch lol and it won't last but a few days 

They’re not really talking about us, they’re talking about the Midwest.

[winter_warlock]

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

In a new post, JB states there will be a 5-7 day window for an east coast storm but then we will wait until February with the MJO going into Phase 6.

I take what JB says with a grain of salt.  He keeps talking about.  January rivaling January of 85.. but. Temps aren't going to be that cold lol

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

They’re not really talking about us, they’re talking about the Midwest.

Ahh ok. The videos I saw from BAM weather aren't all that accurate.IMO. But we will see 

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, konksw said:

Hoping for the torch if it doesn’t snow, nothing worse than 40 and dry. 

Nooo.. no torch!! That's not winter

[Weather Will]

On the bright side, if we get enough rain this weekend, it will wash the salt away.  WB 12Z GFS

[Alfoman]

Too little too late for the phase here but move that west and add a little tilt and we'd be in biz. Plenty of time to watch this one

 

[BristowWx]

Looks Nipsy Russell post 16 Jan.  486dM in E Central Canada on the op at least.  headed in the right direction there

[konksw]

31 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Nooo.. no torch!! That's not winter

I’ll take ice I guess or even rain at this point. Something interesting is all I ask for. 

[dailylurker]

16 minutes ago, konksw said:

I’ll take ice I guess or even rain at this point. Something interesting is all I ask for. 

I'd be pumped to get a rainy norester at this point. We just need moisture at this point. I've never seen dry creeks in January. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Unclear what implications,  if any, this might have, but the SPV is going to get squeezed again shortly. One would think that will help get the coldest air to propagate farther South wrt latitude after mid Jan. 

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'd be pumped to get a rainy norester at this point. We just need moisture at this point. I've never seen dry creeks in January. 

But definitely dry cheeks 

[Ji]

1 hour ago, soadforecasterx said:

At hour 96 this is alot of change for the last 5 runs. 

kansas did an us....lost about 20 inches lol

[Ji]

Its the wild west out there--no wonder the meteorology  field is so damaged

 

[mitchnick]

1/16 looks interesting on the Euro

Edit: until it failed

[bncho]

39 minutes ago, Ji said:

Its the wild west out there--no wonder the meteorology  field is so damaged

 

Mitch West is one of the few people who doesn't over hype meteorology, but with all the other channels with the clickbait titles and thumbnails, he essentially had two choices: lose to the competition or garner more views to keep up. And of course he chose the latter. So while yes, the meteorology space is damaged due to clickbait and overhype, it's only because a few channels started to explode because of this, and the other channels had to keep up. It's not necessarily Mitch's fault.

[Paleocene]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

1/16 looks interesting on the Euro

Edit: until it failed

idk if i'd call the stripe of snow it dropped "failure," especially for the "we need digital blue to get real snow" crowd

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

1/16 looks interesting on the Euro

Edit: until it failed

That’s definitely a window. At the super fantasy time range, GFS and Euro both have big dog potential and verbatim don’t get it to quite work out. 
 

eta…good day for the “D10+ op runs should look similar to the ensemble means” rule 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s definitely a window. At the super fantasy time range, GFS and Euro both have big dog potential and verbatim don’t get it to quite work out. 

Window has flashed some real sexy almost there at h5 looks. Got a lot of potential but complicated. Why can't it ever be easy?

[LP08]

Even after the first "threat" on 1/16, new GEFS looks nice through the end of the run.  Euro also has fantasy overrunning after 1/16.  To my weenie eyes, tracking will pick up through the end of the month.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Window has flashed some real sexy almost there at h5 looks. Got a lot of potential but complicated. Why can't it ever be easy?

Perma-Nina makes stream phasing more complicated than usual. Next year’s moderate Modiki Nino is going to have triple phasers galore. Trust. 

[Scraff]

The Euro and GFS have similar windows. Around 1/16 and then again on 1/20. That’s definitely encouraging and should be good enough for the “whine club” members. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

The Euro and GFS have similar windows. Around 1/16 and then again on 1/20. That’s definitely encouraging and should be good enough for the “whine club” members. 

It seems for now we have two discrete threat windows on the dates you said. I know some are really down on January because the ens snow means are so low, but I'm not. We have chances. Not saying they'll "definitely" pan out though.

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

idk if i'd call the stripe of snow it dropped "failure," especially for the "we need digital blue to get real snow" crowd

Well, when I saw the top 5H anomaly map at 252hrs, I  wasn't expecting it to look like the bottom map at 264hrs.

But I won't fight you on the "beggars can't be choosers" point of view.

[bncho]

Major improvement on the snow mean on the GEFS, FWIW.

[WxUSAF]

^what time period has the improvement? Around the 15th? Later? 

[mitchnick]

No ensemble snowfall improvement on the Eps unfortunately. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

^what time period has the improvement? Around the 15th? Later? 

16th onwards. 4 day snow mean below

[WEATHER53]

So the 7th and 14th  are out now for the delayed mantra?  21st   looking better?