soadforecasterx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 At hour 96 this is alot of change for the last 5 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Once again the brunt of the warmup is to our west. Torch?? 40s and 50s isnt torch. Mild yes but not a torch lol and it won't last but a few days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Torch?? 40s and 50s isnt torch. Mild yes but not a torch lol and it won't last but a few days They’re not really talking about us, they’re talking about the Midwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: In a new post, JB states there will be a 5-7 day window for an east coast storm but then we will wait until February with the MJO going into Phase 6. I take what JB says with a grain of salt. He keeps talking about. January rivaling January of 85.. but. Temps aren't going to be that cold lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: They’re not really talking about us, they’re talking about the Midwest. Ahh ok. The videos I saw from BAM weather aren't all that accurate.IMO. But we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, konksw said: Hoping for the torch if it doesn’t snow, nothing worse than 40 and dry. Nooo.. no torch!! That's not winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On the bright side, if we get enough rain this weekend, it will wash the salt away. WB 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Too little too late for the phase here but move that west and add a little tilt and we'd be in biz. Plenty of time to watch this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Looks Nipsy Russell post 16 Jan. 486dM in E Central Canada on the op at least. headed in the right direction there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 31 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Nooo.. no torch!! That's not winter I’ll take ice I guess or even rain at this point. Something interesting is all I ask for. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 16 minutes ago, konksw said: I’ll take ice I guess or even rain at this point. Something interesting is all I ask for. I'd be pumped to get a rainy norester at this point. We just need moisture at this point. I've never seen dry creeks in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Unclear what implications, if any, this might have, but the SPV is going to get squeezed again shortly. One would think that will help get the coldest air to propagate farther South wrt latitude after mid Jan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I'd be pumped to get a rainy norester at this point. We just need moisture at this point. I've never seen dry creeks in January. But definitely dry cheeks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, soadforecasterx said: At hour 96 this is alot of change for the last 5 runs. kansas did an us....lost about 20 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Its the wild west out there--no wonder the meteorology field is so damaged 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1/16 looks interesting on the Euro Edit: until it failed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 39 minutes ago, Ji said: Its the wild west out there--no wonder the meteorology field is so damaged Mitch West is one of the few people who doesn't over hype meteorology, but with all the other channels with the clickbait titles and thumbnails, he essentially had two choices: lose to the competition or garner more views to keep up. And of course he chose the latter. So while yes, the meteorology space is damaged due to clickbait and overhype, it's only because a few channels started to explode because of this, and the other channels had to keep up. It's not necessarily Mitch's fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 1/16 looks interesting on the Euro Edit: until it failed idk if i'd call the stripe of snow it dropped "failure," especially for the "we need digital blue to get real snow" crowd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 1/16 looks interesting on the Euro Edit: until it failed That’s definitely a window. At the super fantasy time range, GFS and Euro both have big dog potential and verbatim don’t get it to quite work out. eta…good day for the “D10+ op runs should look similar to the ensemble means” rule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: That’s definitely a window. At the super fantasy time range, GFS and Euro both have big dog potential and verbatim don’t get it to quite work out. Window has flashed some real sexy almost there at h5 looks. Got a lot of potential but complicated. Why can't it ever be easy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Even after the first "threat" on 1/16, new GEFS looks nice through the end of the run. Euro also has fantasy overrunning after 1/16. To my weenie eyes, tracking will pick up through the end of the month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Window has flashed some real sexy almost there at h5 looks. Got a lot of potential but complicated. Why can't it ever be easy? Perma-Nina makes stream phasing more complicated than usual. Next year’s moderate Modiki Nino is going to have triple phasers galore. Trust. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The Euro and GFS have similar windows. Around 1/16 and then again on 1/20. That’s definitely encouraging and should be good enough for the “whine club” members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Scraff said: The Euro and GFS have similar windows. Around 1/16 and then again on 1/20. That’s definitely encouraging and should be good enough for the “whine club” members. It seems for now we have two discrete threat windows on the dates you said. I know some are really down on January because the ens snow means are so low, but I'm not. We have chances. Not saying they'll "definitely" pan out though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 20 minutes ago, Paleocene said: idk if i'd call the stripe of snow it dropped "failure," especially for the "we need digital blue to get real snow" crowd Well, when I saw the top 5H anomaly map at 252hrs, I wasn't expecting it to look like the bottom map at 264hrs. But I won't fight you on the "beggars can't be choosers" point of view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Major improvement on the snow mean on the GEFS, FWIW. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 ^what time period has the improvement? Around the 15th? Later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 No ensemble snowfall improvement on the Eps unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: ^what time period has the improvement? Around the 15th? Later? 16th onwards. 4 day snow mean below 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 So the 7th and 14th are out now for the delayed mantra? 21st looking better? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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