January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[rjvanals]

One common theme is not much precip over us either way over the next 15 days

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

One common theme is not much precip over us either way over the next 15 days

Nothing new 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

For me, this is the only map that matters.  Until this map starts showing a sustained change, it's all just wish casting.  

It knows where the drought is 

 

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It knows where the drought is 

 

Yup, and we can talk about cold patterns two weeks off but unless the overall, large scale pattern shifts then that just means it's cold and dry.  Which I guess some people like, I don't care I just want the drought to end.

[frd]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Idk if that trough out in the Atlantic on the far right of the screen is what's causing the SER or vice-versa. I would guess that unless it moves out, however, it will act like a 50-50 low and pump the heights over the east coast.

We have seen this before as well. The - NAO linking with the WAR, likely due to the SE ridge/WAR becoming more prominent due to the reaction from the Pac jet extension.  

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Yup, and we can talk about cold patterns two weeks off but unless the overall, large scale pattern shifts then that just means it's cold and dry.  Which I guess some people like, I don't care I just want the drought to end.

Going to need Nina to end then maybe we can get some precipitation 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, frd said:

We have seen this before as well. The - NAO linking with the WAR, likely due to the SE ridge/WAR becoming more prominent due to the reaction from the Pac jet extension.  

Gfs suite has been adamant with bringing the cold back just before the 15th and was not as bullish on the period before/around the 10th as the Euro suite was. Frankly, as screwed up as the Euro suite has performed, I'm more inclined to go with the Gfs as crazy as it sounds. The Geps, at the end of its 0z run, was closer to the Gfs with well BN temps moving through the Midwest our way.

[rjvanals]

What did the models miss earlier this week that has degraded our good look for next week? 

[Shad]

Euro trying for something here....

[rjvanals]

Euro gets snow into Southern MD for Sunday morning 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Euro gets snow into Southern MD for Sunday morning 

Yesterday’s 18z remains the high water mark. Still have time, but would’ve hoped for a little more progress from that point. 

[RIC_WX]

13 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

What did the models miss earlier this week that has degraded our good look for next week? 

Its a progressive pattern - more challenging to model.  The seasonal analogs built off nina's with multi-week cold starts to December probably offer the best clue.  These suggest the relax/reload period will be no less than 3-4 weeks.

If anything, the pattern has been MORE progressive than some of the analog years hence the somewhat muted warm ups here compared to both what has often been modeled in the medium range and what has verified in places like the midwest.  Translation - we are lamenting the fact the pattern hasn't been better, when in reality it could have been sooooo much worse.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

Its a progressive pattern - more challenging to model.  The seasonal analogs built off nina's with multi-week cold starts to December probably offer the best clue.  These suggest the relax/reload period will be no less than 3-4 weeks.

If anything, the pattern has been MORE progressive than some of the analog years hence the somewhat muted warm ups here compared to both what has often been modeled in the medium range and what has verified in places like the midwest.  Translation - we are lamenting the fact the pattern hasn't been better, when in reality it could have been sooooo much worse.

Yeah it’s winter, there has been cold around.  Just need to time something up.  What people forget is that when a bunch of twitter Mets post rah rah rah amazing pattern buckle up…what that really means is that the models think there may be a good pattern in 10-14 days.  But we all know how good models are from that far out.  If you buy every declaration of amazing pattern you run out of money fast.  It’s best to just remember it’s winter, it hasn’t been insanely warm, it can snow, just hope for some storms.  When something gets to within 3-4 days get excited and hope for no rug pull. 

[brooklynwx99]

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

Rinsed 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

No worries. 12z Euro has fresh Canadian air headed our way at the end of the run. Lol

[RedSky]

It's an 80's winter pattern like last year

 

 

[Solution Man]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

I used that word last Saturday 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS ensemble at range is cold enough:  question is will it delivery anything but the same old same old for the later half of the month.

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS ensemble at range is cold enough:  question is will it delivery anything but the same old same old for the later half of the month.

It’s always weeks away and it will stay there lol. 

[high risk]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

  THIS.   Even though our resident third graders want to moan that poor forecasts show that NWP is useless, there are certain patterns that for whatever reason just aren't predictable.   The fact that all of the major world modeling ensemble systems showed something very encouraging for the end of the first week of January makes it clear that something about those forecasts (initial conditions generally driven by lack of observations or observational errors, the actual equations and parameterizations, numerical methods, or some combo of those) made skillful predictions impossible.     But there are plenty of periods where guidance shows remarkable skill even at extended ranges.   Here are the 500 mb anomaly correlation scores (the best measure of synoptic pattern success) for 10 day forecasts over the past 3 months for the 3 major ensemble systems (and yes, it only makes sense to verify ensembles at this range).   A score of 1 is a perfect score, and the dates on the bottom are the days on which the forecasts verify, not when they're made.    

            There were periods of poor performance by all 3 systems (early October and around November 9),  periods of poor GEFS and GEPS performance but with the Euro doing fine (around November 12 and at the very end of December), periods of fair performance by all 3 (mid October), and periods of fantastic performance by all 3 (third week of November and especially the third week of December).    Those scores between December 18 and Christmas are remarkable for 10-day forecasts and are numbers we could have only dreamed of 20 years ago.   Advances in data assimilation and coupling of the ocean to the atmosphere in models will lead to even bigger improvements, and AI offers tremendous opportunities to run the massive size of ensembles needed to truly represent the uncertainty and potential for extreme events with more lead time.     That doesn't mean that frustrations like those with the upcoming pattern will completely disappear, and it REALLY doesn't mean that we should soon expect models to lock in on a snowstorm 12 days out and never waver up until the day it happens.   We just need to remember the current limitations and focus on consistency in patterns (and not details of deterministic runs at extended ranges) in ensembles, understanding that progress in forecasting the extended ranges doesn't preclude huge busts.    I'll end with this plot of Day 5 anomaly correlation by year over the past 40 years (apologies for not having the values for Day 10).   While the lines have flattened more than we'd like in the past 10 years (I think that AI is the way we'll see these rise again), and the GFS needs to catch up to the Euro, the progress is undeniable.    Thanks for coming to my TED talk, and Happy New Year!

 

pa

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

  THIS.   Even though our resident third graders want to moan that poor forecasts show that NWP is useless, there are certain patterns that for whatever reason just aren't predictable.   The fact that all of the major world modeling ensemble systems showed something very encouraging for the end of the first week of January makes it clear that something about those forecasts (initial conditions generally driven by lack of observations or observational errors, the actual equations and parameterizations, numerical methods, or some combo of those) made skillful predictions impossible.     But there are plenty of periods where guidance shows remarkable skill even at extended ranges.   Here are the 500 mb anomaly correlation scores (the best measure of synoptic pattern success) for 10 day forecasts over the past 3 months for the 3 major ensemble systems (and yes, it only makes sense to verify ensembles at this range).   A score of 1 is a perfect score, and the dates on the bottom are the days on which the forecasts verify, not when they're made.    

            There were periods of poor performance by all 3 systems (early October and around November 9),  periods of poor GEFS and GEPS performance but with the Euro doing fine (around November 12 and at the very end of December), periods of fair performance by all 3 (mid October), and periods of fantastic performance by all 3 (third week of November and especially the third week of December).    Those scores between December 18 and Christmas are remarkable for 10-day forecasts and are numbers we could have only dreamed of 20 years ago.   Advances in data assimilation and coupling of the ocean to the atmosphere in models will lead to even bigger improvements, and AI offers tremendous opportunities to run the massive size of ensembles needed to truly represent the uncertainty and potential for extreme events with more lead time.     That doesn't mean that frustrations like those with the upcoming pattern will completely disappear, and it REALLY doesn't mean that we should soon expect models to lock in on a snowstorm 12 days out and never waver up until the day it happens.   We just need to remember the current limitations and focus on consistency in patterns (and not details of deterministic runs at extended ranges) in ensembles, understanding that progress in forecasting the extended ranges doesn't preclude huge busts.    I'll end with this plot of Day 5 anomaly correlation by year over the past 40 years (apologies for not having the values for Day 10).   While the lines have flattened more than we'd like in the past 10 years (I think that AI is the way we'll see these rise again), and the GFS needs to catch up to the Euro, the progress is undeniable.    Thanks for coming to my TED talk, and Happy New Year!

 

pa

 

Good read, thanks for posting. Please post more.

[Krs4Lfe]

14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s always weeks away and it will stay there lol. 

If I had a dollar for everytime I heard the “better pattern just weeks away”