January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[rjvanals]

One common theme is not much precip over us either way over the next 15 days

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

One common theme is not much precip over us either way over the next 15 days

Nothing new 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

For me, this is the only map that matters.  Until this map starts showing a sustained change, it's all just wish casting.  

It knows where the drought is 

 

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It knows where the drought is 

 

Yup, and we can talk about cold patterns two weeks off but unless the overall, large scale pattern shifts then that just means it's cold and dry.  Which I guess some people like, I don't care I just want the drought to end.

[frd]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Idk if that trough out in the Atlantic on the far right of the screen is what's causing the SER or vice-versa. I would guess that unless it moves out, however, it will act like a 50-50 low and pump the heights over the east coast.

We have seen this before as well. The - NAO linking with the WAR, likely due to the SE ridge/WAR becoming more prominent due to the reaction from the Pac jet extension.  

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Yup, and we can talk about cold patterns two weeks off but unless the overall, large scale pattern shifts then that just means it's cold and dry.  Which I guess some people like, I don't care I just want the drought to end.

Going to need Nina to end then maybe we can get some precipitation 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, frd said:

We have seen this before as well. The - NAO linking with the WAR, likely due to the SE ridge/WAR becoming more prominent due to the reaction from the Pac jet extension.  

Gfs suite has been adamant with bringing the cold back just before the 15th and was not as bullish on the period before/around the 10th as the Euro suite was. Frankly, as screwed up as the Euro suite has performed, I'm more inclined to go with the Gfs as crazy as it sounds. The Geps, at the end of its 0z run, was closer to the Gfs with well BN temps moving through the Midwest our way.

[rjvanals]

What did the models miss earlier this week that has degraded our good look for next week? 

[Shad]

Euro trying for something here....

[rjvanals]

Euro gets snow into Southern MD for Sunday morning 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Euro gets snow into Southern MD for Sunday morning 

Yesterday’s 18z remains the high water mark. Still have time, but would’ve hoped for a little more progress from that point. 

[RIC_WX]

13 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

What did the models miss earlier this week that has degraded our good look for next week? 

Its a progressive pattern - more challenging to model.  The seasonal analogs built off nina's with multi-week cold starts to December probably offer the best clue.  These suggest the relax/reload period will be no less than 3-4 weeks.

If anything, the pattern has been MORE progressive than some of the analog years hence the somewhat muted warm ups here compared to both what has often been modeled in the medium range and what has verified in places like the midwest.  Translation - we are lamenting the fact the pattern hasn't been better, when in reality it could have been sooooo much worse.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

Its a progressive pattern - more challenging to model.  The seasonal analogs built off nina's with multi-week cold starts to December probably offer the best clue.  These suggest the relax/reload period will be no less than 3-4 weeks.

If anything, the pattern has been MORE progressive than some of the analog years hence the somewhat muted warm ups here compared to both what has often been modeled in the medium range and what has verified in places like the midwest.  Translation - we are lamenting the fact the pattern hasn't been better, when in reality it could have been sooooo much worse.

Yeah it’s winter, there has been cold around.  Just need to time something up.  What people forget is that when a bunch of twitter Mets post rah rah rah amazing pattern buckle up…what that really means is that the models think there may be a good pattern in 10-14 days.  But we all know how good models are from that far out.  If you buy every declaration of amazing pattern you run out of money fast.  It’s best to just remember it’s winter, it hasn’t been insanely warm, it can snow, just hope for some storms.  When something gets to within 3-4 days get excited and hope for no rug pull. 

[brooklynwx99]

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

Rinsed 

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

No worries. 12z Euro has fresh Canadian air headed our way at the end of the run. Lol

[RedSky]

It's an 80's winter pattern like last year

 

 

[Solution Man]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol what a disaster by the ECMWF. sometimes models fuck up wave breaking blocks... it happens

I used that word last Saturday 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS ensemble at range is cold enough:  question is will it delivery anything but the same old same old for the later half of the month.

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS ensemble at range is cold enough:  question is will it delivery anything but the same old same old for the later half of the month.

It’s always weeks away and it will stay there lol.