January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

It's the GEFS at 384 hrs, but that is a very nice -EPO popping up

 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

It's the GEFS at 384 hrs, but that is a very nice -EPO popping up

 

Gunna' need a very nice -Epo after losing the -Nao.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

They broke the GFS something bad. Used to give us fantasy snowstorms all the time.

So you would rather have a model that teased every single run post 200 hrs rather than a piece of guidance that 'should' be more accurate, at least in theory? 

I bet you were a huge fan of the DGEX too?

 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gunna' need a very nice -Epo after losing the -Nao.

That look has worked pretty well in recent winters, with a timely transient -NAO helping out at times.

[stormtracker]

Calm down. I’m back on Friday. We’ll be tracking again. 

[Solution Man]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Calm down. I’m back on Friday. We’ll be tracking again. 

Just arriving in Sarasota myself, nothing happening until @stormtrackergets back.

[pazzo83]

5 hours ago, stormy said:

 For you, it is a difficult  question................  For others,  it is a simple conclusion

stop trying to start sh*t on here.

[bncho]

0z GFS is a cold rainstorm for Jan 10 but it would make a significant dent in the drought—2+" precip for most in the forum
also has some back end snow C-2"

[ravensrule]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z GFS is a cold rainstorm for Jan 10 but it would make a significant dent in the drought—2+" precip for most in the forum
also has some back end snow C-2"

The back end always works out. 

[bncho]

JFC that 0z GFS had lots of chances but nothing worked out. The end of the GFS looked good as well. Nice pattern we're starting to enter

[jayyy]

JFC that 0z GFS had lots of chances but nothing worked out. The end of the GFS looked good as well. Nice pattern we're starting to enter

Legit upper air pattern incoming and a bunch of chances to track. That’s really all we should be taking from models this far out. Specifics of a given threat is pointless at this range. If models hold this look for the next week, we have reason to get excited.

[mitchnick]

6z Gfs (days 8-9)  is a perfect example of a wasted block. But this run is so different from 0z, it's beyond entertainment and fantasy.

[Ji]

Eps finally has us in the blue. 1 inch jump from yesterday

[WxUSAF]

0z euro was best look yet for the NYD light event. EPS really looks loaded.

[dailylurker]

The Euro outlines the drought in our area really well that run.

[Blizzard of 93]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro was best look yet for the NYD light event. EPS really looks loaded.

Yes indeed, here is the 0z EPS look for the day 10 to 15 period.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro was best look yet for the NYD light event. EPS really looks loaded.

6z was even better

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes indeed, here is the 0z EPS look for the day 10 to 15 period.

That looks great! But the issue I always have with the 5 day mean is how did it get to that mean as in what happened over the 5 day period to get all the players in the right spot.

[Blizzard of 93]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That looks great! But the issue I always have with the 5 day mean is how did it get to that mean as in what happened over the 5 day period to get all the players in the right spot.

It’s a good look & the key is that it is sustainable.

[Terpeast]

6 hours ago, jayyy said:

Legit upper air pattern incoming and a bunch of chances to track. That’s really all we should be taking from models this far out. Specifics of a given threat is pointless at this range. If models hold this look for the next week, we have reason to get excited.

Yep, that’s all we can take away at this moment. Jan 5-12 is still what I’m cautiously optimistic about, and the pattern still looks good after. There may be a couple/few days where we relax or warm up, but we have not lost this yet. 

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s a good look & the key is that it is sustainable.

I went over to TT and put the 5H anomalies in motion with the slid function. I looks like the lowest anomalies backed in from the east and not from west to east. Idk if it makes a difference, but I  was expecting it to move from west to east. I'm not saying it's bad, because I  don't know. Maybe a red tagger can chime in.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025122800&fh=12

[Ralph Wiggum]

35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s a good look & the key is that it is sustainable.

But in our years doing this, realistically how often have these looks actually sustained? Let's get this advertised pattern to establish itself and actually produce first, then we can hope it isnt just transient in nature. 

[Weather Will]

It is rare air to get all the teleconnections to line up in our favor.....heading in that direction as we go through the next 2 weeks. WB 0Z EPS.

[WxUSAF]

46 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I went over to TT and put the 5H anomalies in motion with the slid function. I looks like the lowest anomalies backed in from the east and not from west to east. Idk if it makes a difference, but I  was expecting it to move from west to east. I'm not saying it's bad, because I  don't know. Maybe a red tagger can chime in.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025122800&fh=12

MSLP anomalies show a low passing to our south around the 4th and then a storm developing along the coast on the 6th/7th, then another around the 9th.  Lots of spread obviously, but I think the H5 look is mostly due to the troughs developing when they hit the water.  

[CAPE]

0z EPS for the 4th- vorticity and surface pressure- got some southern stream action. Precip stays just to the south.

 

 

 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I went over to TT and put the 5H anomalies in motion with the slid function. I looks like the lowest anomalies backed in from the east and not from west to east. Idk if it makes a difference, but I  was expecting it to move from west to east. I'm not saying it's bad, because I  don't know. Maybe a red tagger can chime in.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025122800&fh=12

No explanation, but I have to mention that someone posted JB saying he thought a trough would retrograde from the east.  Maybe he was on to something.

[CAPE]

We have seen this look in some recent winters- a TPV/vorticity lobe under the GL ridge forming the block, with lower heights extending towards 50-50, but southward displaced. A lot of NS action with that look so could be some fun tracking lol. Getting a southern storm to gain latitude/not get sheared out may be a challenge for the Jan 3-5 window.

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We have seen this look in some recent winters- a TPV/vorticity lobe under the GL ridge forming the block, with lower heights extending towards 50-50, but southward displaced. A lot of NS action with that look so could be some fun tracking lol. Getting a southern storm to gain latitude/not get sheared out may be a challenge for the Jan 3-5 window.

Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t think the Dec 29-Jan 5 window favors EC snowstorms (apart from lighter snows that don’t pop up in modeling until less than 5 days). But once the +PNA develops after Jan 5 (if it does), all bets are off.