January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

It's the GEFS at 384 hrs, but that is a very nice -EPO popping up

 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

It's the GEFS at 384 hrs, but that is a very nice -EPO popping up

 

Gunna' need a very nice -Epo after losing the -Nao.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

They broke the GFS something bad. Used to give us fantasy snowstorms all the time.

So you would rather have a model that teased every single run post 200 hrs rather than a piece of guidance that 'should' be more accurate, at least in theory? 

I bet you were a huge fan of the DGEX too?

 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gunna' need a very nice -Epo after losing the -Nao.

That look has worked pretty well in recent winters, with a timely transient -NAO helping out at times.

[stormtracker]

Calm down. I’m back on Friday. We’ll be tracking again. 

[Solution Man]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Calm down. I’m back on Friday. We’ll be tracking again. 

Just arriving in Sarasota myself, nothing happening until @stormtrackergets back.

[pazzo83]

5 hours ago, stormy said:

 For you, it is a difficult  question................  For others,  it is a simple conclusion

stop trying to start sh*t on here.

[bncho]

0z GFS is a cold rainstorm for Jan 10 but it would make a significant dent in the drought—2+" precip for most in the forum
also has some back end snow C-2"

[ravensrule]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

0z GFS is a cold rainstorm for Jan 10 but it would make a significant dent in the drought—2+" precip for most in the forum
also has some back end snow C-2"

The back end always works out. 

[bncho]

JFC that 0z GFS had lots of chances but nothing worked out. The end of the GFS looked good as well. Nice pattern we're starting to enter

[jayyy]

JFC that 0z GFS had lots of chances but nothing worked out. The end of the GFS looked good as well. Nice pattern we're starting to enter

Legit upper air pattern incoming and a bunch of chances to track. That’s really all we should be taking from models this far out. Specifics of a given threat is pointless at this range. If models hold this look for the next week, we have reason to get excited.

[mitchnick]

6z Gfs (days 8-9)  is a perfect example of a wasted block. But this run is so different from 0z, it's beyond entertainment and fantasy.

[Ji]

Eps finally has us in the blue. 1 inch jump from yesterday

[WxUSAF]

0z euro was best look yet for the NYD light event. EPS really looks loaded.

[dailylurker]

The Euro outlines the drought in our area really well that run.

[Blizzard of 93]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro was best look yet for the NYD light event. EPS really looks loaded.

Yes indeed, here is the 0z EPS look for the day 10 to 15 period.

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro was best look yet for the NYD light event. EPS really looks loaded.

6z was even better

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes indeed, here is the 0z EPS look for the day 10 to 15 period.

That looks great! But the issue I always have with the 5 day mean is how did it get to that mean as in what happened over the 5 day period to get all the players in the right spot.

[Blizzard of 93]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That looks great! But the issue I always have with the 5 day mean is how did it get to that mean as in what happened over the 5 day period to get all the players in the right spot.

It’s a good look & the key is that it is sustainable.