January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

NYD snow signal still there 

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NYD snow signal still there 

Fropa

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fropa

It’s a 1-3” 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a 1-3” 

Front 

[moneypitmike]

A dusting with lollies of a heavy dusting.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Front 

You’ll be on a hot sweaty beach. So you miss out on a couple inches. No biggie 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ll be on a hot sweaty beach. So you miss out on a couple inches. No biggie 

Looks too flat now for much if anything. Maybe it comes back but I’d forecast flurries right now. 
 

Pattern looks pretty awesome though beyond that. 
 

Here’s day 5-10 and then day 10-15 respectively on EPS

 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks too flat now for much if anything. Maybe it comes back but I’d forecast flurries right now. 
 

Pattern looks pretty awesome though beyond that. 
 

Here’s day 5-10 and then day 10-15 respectively on EPS

 

Yeah looks great after the 6th or so. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah looks great after the 6th or so. 

Gonna be a miller B while you’re gone just to give you one more round in Ray’s beast shed. 

[dendrite]

Hopefully it’s not congrats DC, but at least there’s no monster PNA in the extended. I’ll roll with that block.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think we need to consider the 6-7-8 a pattern arrival event 

That's going to be an H.A. implication ( I suspect ...) as nearing the 5th, all ens systems agree in the rather abrupt guard change in the N. Pacific.  The entire circulation medium out there essentially product reverses, like on a temporal dime when considering planetary wave distribution.   Really fast...  intra-weekly time scale.

If that happens - first of all - that's likely to cause increased model performance problems.  Furthermore, the implications of sending a such a violent signal down stream, the western N/A ridge will be in a period whence the 'correction vector' will be pointed toward more amplitude - hint, I think more than is currently in the cinemas.  It's a wave # number/distribution argument.   When you supplant the regions N of HA with as much total height anomaly reversal (lowering in this case) like these charts below are showing ( using the GEPs but they are all doing it ), there will physically necessitate height growth into western North America...

More than 50% ...closer to 80% of this mass field alteration takes place in < 5 days.  I would be reeeally leery about any depictions down stream over eastern N/A. And by that, more amplitude is actually favored.   When I say correction vector that's just an expression I use to mean corrections that are inevitable in the guidance will likely lean in a given  direction... 

That all times around the 7th for some sort of emergence E of the nations midriff longitudes.