January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

wdym

Whining lol

[CoastalWx]

We can slow the trends a bit 

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

DCA has 1.6" on the season, they could use some 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We can slow the trends a bit 

This thing has been hauling ass north for days, “whooooaaaa girl, easy”

[weathafella]

All systems go.  This thread is hotter than a firecracker!  This is the only solace for me getting up so early for a doctors appointment..

[Damage In Tolland]

Is there any chance this trends so far that it ends up icestorm SNE and snow NNE?

[mreaves]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We can keep this south of Block Island and off the Cape. We don’t need this over the canal.

Some of us would be fine with it over the canal. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Too soon. PF on standby…

[JKEisMan]

12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

We have more wiggle room in SNE for a significant event. As you can see, the highest odds for 6" are Baltimore to Boston, however the highest odds on EPS for 12" + is over DC more boom or bust there..  While we have a few different ways to get widespread 6-12"+ .. Theres going to be some amazing soundings coming out soon, and you know we will get Nam'd with a 15-30" run by tomorrow morning. 

 

And that’s 10:1 ratios. Easily 1+ ft across SNE with ratios. EPS putting up close to 1” qpf up to 144 hrs.

[dryslot]

-5.1°F here this morning, Like the trend overnight some.

[weatherwiz]

What a fun assessment of overnight models...can't say I'm totally shocked  

LFG 

This is the stuff where you need to tape two yardsticks together. Going to home depot to get a few yard sticks before they sell out. 

[Modfan2]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there any chance this trends so far that it ends up icestorm SNE and snow NNE?

You have a better chance at a whiff than an ice storm

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

What a fun assessment of overnight models...can't say I'm totally shocked  

LFG 

This is the stuff where you need to tape two yardsticks together. Going to home depot to get a few yard sticks before they sell out. 

should get to your 100 by the end of Monday it seems, might need 3

[Damage In Tolland]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Boris, I kind of feel as though that evolution is akin to an inverted trough in that while it is not physically implausible to be the final outcome, it's more likely to a provisional solution as the model attempts to reconcile previous depictions of the evolution with what will actually happen.

Becker or Yeltsin?

[jbenedet]

Probably should be noted that a high amplitude 7 to 8 MJO progression in late January around the time of a strong shortwave is the thing forecasting nightmares are made of.

[Damage In Tolland]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Was I that bad?

The emojis give you your answer 

[SJonesWX]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We can keep this south of Block Island and off the Cape. We don’t need this over the canal.

 

12 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Some of us would be fine with it over the canal. 

yup, my location would be playing with fire on a canal track, but those on the right (correct) side of the mix line would do well. I'll take my chances. sorry, AEMATT

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

should get to your 100 by the end of Monday it seems, might need 3

Let's do it, this is what dreams are made of. It's what we've been waiting for. 

[Zeus]

No system-specific thread on this one yet, huh. What a superstitious bunch.

[ariof]

18 minutes ago, mreaves said:

We joke about stocking up on bread and milk but those folk probably should. 

The ECMWF is parsing the area between SN and RA mostly as ZR, while the NAM/GFS is mostly IP and the CMC somewhere in between.

Big difference between 1.5" QPF of ZR and IP.

[dryslot]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Was I that bad?

When you looked in a mirror did you see tblizz?

[Typhoon Tip]

Back a few pages ...

I've only seen the 00z GFS and GGEM solutions - those are pushing that it was always the 29/30/31st window for the more important of the two. 

Again, the 26/27 is/was index valid, but the sweet range was ^  ...

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

When you looked in a mirror did you see tblizz?

It was a brutal stretch here. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was a brutal stretch here. 

Hopefully no lingering affects.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Webb caving 

[CoastalWx]

DT nervous?

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

The huge shift of mid levels on the GEFS in like 4 runs has me shook.

My take is we are having major head fakes given the MJO progression uncertainty as 7 is AN in the east with +NAO tendency, but 8 is sig BN with -NAO tendency. The guidance has been waffling on the progression for days.

First was sitting in 7; then quick progression to 8; now I see a split— some showing sticking in 7, others quick to 8…

It’s now that all of the latest guidance is looking a lot more like an MJO 7 synoptic pattern. The crazy part about that is if we do settle in 7, I believe this continues further north. That primary on the EC AIFS in Ontario is a shade of how much more this could  trend…warmer….

I’ll make a call later this morning…

Should have enough data to see which way this will break.

 

Man, I'm so confused by you. You were adamant that this was going to be south of us. You were absolutely sure this was going to stay south of us. Now you're suggesting that it's going to go north and trend warmer. Hmmmm.....

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Probably should be noted that a high amplitude 7 to 8 MJO progression in late January around the time of a strong shortwave is the thing forecasting nightmares are made of.

[Snowcrazed71]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there any chance this trends so far that it ends up icestorm SNE and snow NNE?

It would be your dream. I'd rather keep it a big snowstorm

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Man, I'm so confused by you. You were adamant that this was going to be south of us. You were absolutely sure this was going to stay south of us. Now you're suggesting that it's going to go north and trend warmer. Hmmmm.....

I’m not sure it’s going warmer but I think that risk is higher than colder from here.

I folded and now I’m wait and see..