January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well. Gil from our local weather station is now saying Snow is increasingly likely for Sunday and Monday. He must have liked the trends, especially the Euro tonight. 

Still a long shot though. I’d like to start seeing other guidance more bullish. The euro depiction itself was totally different from 12z and not really hinted by other guidance.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Had a snow squall at some point last night. Everything covered

We picked up 0.75” here.  Did not expect anything more than a dusting. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Tick tick tick as the models slowly start to pick up on less confluence 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tick tick tick as the models slowly start to pick up on less confluence 

 

[Kitz Craver]

SNE has a shot, just hope we can get into some of the meat and not dim sun arctic sand 

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

That’s evident increase lock step each run

[kdxken]

 

[UnitedWx]

14 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

That’s evident increase lock step each run

Yup, let's keep that up... to a point. The PV sort of splitting is telling to my barely trained eyes.  Hopefully that's legit 

[kdxken]

 

[ORH_wxman]

I think every major model gives at least some snow to SNE now…evolution and timing vary. 

[tavwtby]

picked up a surprise 1.3" here last night, from the look of it they were cat paws piling up on a streamer perhaps, three straight days of snow, can't complain about winter atm, cold and snow otg and chances for more...deep winter 

[Snowcrazed71]

Bob on Wvit is now taking about the possibility for a big storm Sunday and Monday. He's being much more cautious, but seems more optimistic of some sort of storm here. It's nice to have the Mets's getting on board here in Ct. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like  1/4 inch maybe 1/2 from a squall last night 

[CT Rain]

Pretty good trends overnight IMO. 

Seems like potential for a decent event Sunday/Monday. 

Don't think the upper end is too high here but could be a nice moderate kinda event?

[jbenedet]

This looking more and more like a crusher for ACY, DC, Baltimore.

There is a -NAO developing around the time this makes it to the east coast, so a slower track and more phasing are likely than currently modeled. That said I don’t think that portends a big latitude gain. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Pretty good trends overnight IMO. 

Seems like potential for a decent event Sunday/Monday. 

Don't think the upper end is too high here but could be a nice moderate kinda event?

Seems like it's trending more to a low to moderate overrunning Sunday to a higher end coastal potential Monday as the SW energy is trending to a phase 

[Brewbeer]

12/8F, chilly morning here

[jbenedet]

The phasing will mean you crush mid Atlantic on the east coast with mid levels but that whole long wave trough development is severely positively tilted in the east. It’s a spin up with limited latitude gain.

[Damage In Tolland]

Thursday will be first higher sun angle day with temps in 30’s where you’ll start to notice it on south facing slopes with snow melt. Hate that 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thursday will be first higher sun angle day with temps in 30’s where you’ll start to notice it on south facing slopes with snow melt. Hate that 

Positive trade off to eliminate the daily black ice risk.

 

Too much of this in December and January. Cities could do more, but they don’t.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thursday will be first higher sun angle day with temps in 30’s where you’ll start to notice it on south facing slopes with snow melt. Hate that 

You’re in the heart of winter now..enjoy. The days get longer, but the cold gets stronger..that will be very true these next few weeks. Cherish/enjoy it. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think every major model gives at least some snow to SNE now…evolution and timing vary. 

I was just thinking the same thing. That euro solution was interesting. Too soon to really over analyze much imo but for winter enthusiasts it’s looking promising.

[Baroclinic Zone]

15 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Seems like it's trending more to a low to moderate overrunning Sunday to a higher end coastal potential Monday as the SW energy is trending to a phase 

I’m seeing that possibility as well. That 00z Euro is showing 3 pieces of energy.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

These things always get further north than initially modeled. 8 out of 10 times we're more worried about sleet/rain than cold/dry

Sure....further north, but I live on the NH border, dude.

[CoastalWx]

Just saw the 6z euro and euro AI. I kind of like that look.

[SnoSki14]

23 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Seems like it's trending more to a low to moderate overrunning Sunday to a higher end coastal potential Monday as the SW energy is trending to a phase 

Slower storm evolution also allows erosion of high/confluence north which will send precip a lot further north. 

That's why these big monsters usually end up shifting further north than initially forecast. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for Southern New England today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the obs thread for it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Slower storm evolution also allows erosion of high/confluence north which will send precip a lot further north. 

That's why these big monsters usually end up shifting further north than initially forecast. 

I have been busy with the fam past day or so, but I did catch wind of a slower evolution and got a but tingly in my nether region....but lots to digest this week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for Southern New England today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the obs thread for it. 

16.25", Methuen, MA

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for Southern New England today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the obs thread for it. 

22.2”