January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

AI about the same as 6z. Definitely not like gfs op.

I think some appreciable snow is a good bet.

[MJO812]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

AI about the same as 6z. Definitely not like gfs op.

Still close

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Snow from Georgia to Maine. We love to see it.

 

Euro will have cirrus, but I’ll take the dopamine hit right now. 

In all seriousness…starting to bite a bit…

Lucy just caught the snap.

[moneypitmike]

Monstah!

 

The board will come to life in 5....4......3.....2.....1.....

[ariof]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah…there’s lot of freezing fog in the valleys and at high elevation making rime ice. Freak and MWN post a lot of epic rime pics. Obviously that’s all supercooled droplets needing a cold surface to freeze/deposit on.

I remember Fort Kent Will posting some good true IC pics (maybe vids) awhile back when he still lived up there.

Rime up there is legit. I worked down the hill from KMWN at Lakes of the Clouds in the fall many years ago. When we closed up the hut for winter (last full day of service was the equinox) we had BN wx blow in. The summit had a high of 26, low of 22, even 1000' below we were below freezing the whole time, with an average wind speed of 60 mph and gusts up to 84, meaning that it was pretty constant the whole time. And we were in a cloud almost constantly, being blown at us at 60 mph and sticking to everything (meanwhile it was 60° and sunny in the valley). We had a foot of rime on anything exposed to the NW winds, which included the chain link fence around our compost (which we had to work on) which became a wind break, but also the rime blew into the generator, which ran for a few minutes and then choked, and coated our solar, so we had pretty minimal power. It made for interesting working conditions but we muddled through. (A week later it was 55 and sunny and I'm not bitter about that at all.) But yeah, the rime up there is cool, and it's often okay for hiking on some of the trails because the relatively flat tread doesn't get coated but the more vertical rocks around are.

[weathafella]

Perfect timing for mby in terms of it being an holiday weekend except the meat is overnight which is a bummer.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hello 

Not For 990’ SoP

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not For 990’ SoP

I’ll send pics

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's coming. Bite, and bite down hard.

 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Lucy just caught the snap.

I was rightfully bullish on the December stuff, but this one still looks a touch tenuous right now imo. But the trend has been our friend, setting aside that gfs nuclear detonation. 

[moneypitmike]

Just where we want it 4 days out.

[Spanks45]

Shift that west WOR needs in on it too....plenty of time to go too

Although, how much faith are we putting in the GFS? I feel like we have been shoveling a lot of fantasy snow this year so far from the GFS. 

How far west can it go? Hopefully this isnt another congrats Western New York

[OrangeCTWX]

Looked at TT just for the hell of it this morning.Did not expect to see that in the GFS lol

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm not trying to sound dickish by this ...buuuut   I f'n knew this solution was coming by at least one of these guidance at 12z, re the 18-19 one of these in an endless stream of suspect wave amplitudes.  

I've refrained from any comment re that possibility, and the overnight quite obvious tendency to move this system NW by all model ( BTW!), because of one  - possibly - sobering reason. 

The ensemble means at 00z and as far as I could tell... 06z, have almost no reflection of that taking place.  

Then ...I did internally wondered if that might not matter?   Here's the reason why?  

Short version: the higher resolution operational versions may score better in higher sensitive regimes - which this is a whopper predicament we are in throughout the next 10 or so days.

Longer version: This is a compressed +PNA flow, which means we are inherently in a 'needle thread' scenario.  Whenever you see a progressive system ( i.e., not slowing down, getting captured... stalling, obvious low level blocking like higher +PP N of Maine...et), that presents a scenario where deterministic forecasting is very sensitive to very minute adjustment in track.  The all or nothing become more qualitatively possible.    That said, the higher resolution, more "soup up" operational members of these ens systems might also be more likely to "see" those minute crucial physics prior to the ensemble means - being that they are comprised of ( usually ) coarser grids and have physics that are experimental and thus may mask things...

 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll send pics

You do for every dusting you get as if you live in Houston

[CoastalWx]

Canadian definitely not like gfs but better than 00z

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian definitely not like gfs but better than 00z

I like it but not buying it yet. fool me once 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You do for every dusting you get as if you live in Houston

Seems a nice pasting albeit only 1-3” I’ll take it . Hopefully MLK works out 

[CoastalWx]

Canadian has an inv low pressure dong overhead. 

[SouthCoastMA]

AI was a slightly better than 6z, not by a ton though

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian has an inv low pressure dong overhead. 

Probably trying to resolve the big one this run.

[CoastalWx]

We just need Brett to say it’s unlikely and the pope to use some teleconnection over the Indian Ocean to say it’s not gonna happen. Then we can lock.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

Probably trying to resolve the big one this run.

Hopefully it doesn’t mean a low over 128

[weatherwiz]

Well the GFS illustrates pretty well what we need to see happen to get such a solution. Even the euro isn't too far off but it just goes to show how sensitive setups like this are. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian definitely not like gfs but better than 00z

Still a solid low end warning event on GGEM for eastern zones. Just not a ridiculous Blizzard. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Still a solid low end warning event on GGEM for eastern zones. Just not a ridiculous Blizzard. 

Amazing how quickly the vibes can change around here. 

[mahk_webstah]

The fact that this comes back onto modeling is not a big surprise as that happens a lot over the years. The fact that it’s the GFS that had it originally and then totally lost it and is now bringing it back as a blizzard, which says to me that there’s a more than 50% chance that this will be a storm of some significance. Definitely the biggest euro run of the last few days.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Amazing how quickly the vibes can change around here. 

Just wait until the Euro takes a dump on our face at 12z and watch the vibe change quickly again. 

[Kitz Craver]

Dr. No awaits 

[Kitz Craver]

I can almost taste a EURO cape scrape

[dryslot]

Have two threads going for this one and people posting in both? So which one is it?