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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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This snapshot of the EPS mean from Pivotal ... heh... you know,  not only is this a huge improvement in the signal, there are members that are actually west of the Del Marva to Logan climatology.  

that would be f'n hilarious, huh

image.png.a0044e8381daf20171ab2d862db3a933.png

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The dusting?

No those were the squalls you missed. That was actually one of the few overperfomers we’ve had in the last few years, lol. I had like an inch from the regular snow and then got blasted with another 1.5” in like 30 minutes from squalls. 

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UKMET trended favorably ...  It's still not getting it done, but its trough cinema is rotating neutral with an attempt at neg as it curls through our longitude.  00z had the entire scope of it positive and pancaked, with nada.   

It seems with all this weight (multi source and amp) we have signal here for improvement - probably goes without saying... but, I'd still caution that we need to get some next-cycle continuity. 

 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

You have no idea how close you have come!  I was in the loft of the piano craft guild on Tremont St where I lived.  My gf was with me and we were looking out across the courtyard and a couple was fully engaged with no window coverings.  No ac btw.  Gf looked at me as we were stewing in our own juices on that infernal night and we both concluded-way too hot to consider even for a second…lol.

That makes me think of May 22, 1977, the day I chose to add insulation to the attic of our small (18x20) Fort Kent 2-story, while CAR tied its all-time hottest at 96.  We're so smart. :fulltilt:

Hot Saturday was the only time I've been in Maine saltwater that felt genuinely warm, near Otter Cliffs in Acadia.  (After baking my brain while picking blueberries next to Rt 1 in Gouldsboro that morning.  A little sugar and we could've made jam right in the field.)

Approached mid 40s here, about 5° above what I'd thought.  Nice wx for replacing the broken pull-starter on our snowblower.  Too bad they sent the wrong piece.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No those were the squalls you missed. That was actually one of the few overperfomers we’ve had in the last few years, lol. I had like an inch from the regular snow and then got blasted with another 1.5” in like 30 minutes from squalls. 

Oh right lol. Yeah the squalls were pretty much it here. I think we had a dusting prior to it.

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3 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That makes me think of May 22, 1977, the day I chose to add insulation to the attic of our small (18x20) Fort Kent 2-story, while CAR tied its all-time hottest at 96.  We're so smart. :fulltilt:

Hot Saturday was the only time I've been in Maine saltwater that felt genuinely warm, near Otter Cliffs in Acadia.  (After baking my brain while picking blueberries next to Rt 1 in Gouldsboro that morning.  A little sugar and we could've made jam right in the field.)

Approached mid 40s here, about 5° above what I'd thought.  Nice wx for replacing the broken pull-starter on our snowblower.  Too bad they sent the wrong piece.

Between that and the July 66 manning the hot grill which was worse?

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This snapshot of the EPS mean from Pivotal ... heh... you know,  not only is this a huge improvement in the signal, there are members that are actually west of the Del Marva to Logan climatology.  

that would be f'n hilarious, huh

image.png.a0044e8381daf20171ab2d862db3a933.png

Really no misses in those clusters...except the cutters! lol

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This is the piece of energy that the GFS is dropping into the trough. Euro isn’t that far off from the gfs with this shortwave. Just a small change in the location and speed of that wave changes everything. Obviously the angle of the kicker dropping in matters as well as the tpv in SE Canada. Just something to keep an eye on future runs

6f739e40fa38a9e0597be713ab8038f1.jpg


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