January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

agreed, but this is notable

That’s a significant change there in that GEFS. 

[Spanks45]

Stepping back from the OP GFs, I think we all sort of know that something this complicated isnt going to be figured out until inside of 3-5 days. This is not a system that the models see 10 days out and more or less holds serve until game time, I feel like we havent had one of those in forever anyway. Odds are it doesn't happen, but at least we have something to track/chat about and we even have cold air to work with. Something that has been almost impossible for years.

[doug1991]

Please, please, please give us a good storm. I feel we are Waaaaaayyyyy over due. 

[CoastalWx]

I don’t think the euro will pull a gfs, but some improvement would go a long way. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Stepping back from the OP GFs, I think we all sort of know that something this complicated isnt going to be figured out until inside of 3-5 days. This is not a system that the models see 10 days out and more or less holds serve until game time, I feel like we havent had one of those in forever anyway. Odds are it doesn't happen, but at least we have something to track/chat about and we even have cold air to work with. Something that has been almost impossible for years.

Yes, this will take time to sort out.  Let’s see if the Euro comes towards the GFS in a half hour or so. If it does move in that direction, that would be a good trend.  
 

And yes, odds are always against a monster like that…that’s why they only happen once in a great while, so sure the chances are quite low. But it’s not zero either. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think the euro will pull a gfs, but some improvement would go a long way. 

Yup, you ninja’d me . 

[weathafella]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We still have more of the 12z suite to go, but there’s some really large differences still. Don’t fall in love with any one solution yet.

I’m 79 years old.  I’ve gained and lost love more than once in my life.  So I’ll fall in love with any solution that gives the most snow….and I’m prepared to lose love within the hour.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m 79 years old.  I’ve gained and lost love more than once in my life.  So I’ll fall in love with any solution that gives the most snow….and I’m prepared to lose love within the hour.

That’s because you’re a pimp. You’re not a player you just crush a lot. 

[Cyclone-68]

If this one doesn’t work out we should all give up this hobby and go larping 

[weathafella]

Incidentally uncle wants to play…albeit a bit too far east.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s because you’re a pimp. You’re not a player you just crush a lot. 

Hot Saturday was named after his endeavors that evening.

[VivaManchVegas]

That storm on the 18th or 19th if it could get its act together a little sooner.  That would be a big one.  Good to see a few chances starting to come inside of lala land. 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hot Saturday was named after his endeavors that evening.

You have no idea how close you have come!  I was in the loft of the piano craft guild on Tremont St where I lived.  My gf was with me and we were looking out across the courtyard and a couple was fully engaged with no window coverings.  No ac btw.  Gf looked at me as we were stewing in our own juices on that infernal night and we both concluded-way too hot to consider even for a second…lol.

[brooklynwx99]

AIFS is pretty similar, no significant changes

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just finished training. Holy GFS, both AI models still have it just not as strong. We take and hope euro has at least a scraper.  GEFS also much improved some solid hits in there which is all that matters. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Definitely some potential but need to see a consistent favorable trend the next few days.

There should be some signature melts if this ends up congrats Delaware. 

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

agreed, but this is notable

yeah, that's a 'spread alarm' actually.   

that's a metaphorical equivalent of the model mean going, "oh, wait a sec, tho -" 

[CoastalWx]

I like the 12z euro AI this go around. At least where MSLP tracks vs older runs.

[weathafella]

Skynet has the 15-16th as well as the 18th.  Differences can be ironed out over the next few days.

[JKEisMan]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I like the 12z euro AI this go around. At least where MSLP tracks vs older runs.

Yeah the model trend there is at least in the right direction 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I like the 12z euro AI this go around. At least where MSLP tracks vs older runs.

That’s where I’m at right now.

[brooklynwx99]

euro is notably more amped with the whole trough. holy shit

[Typhoon Tip]

just a little ob.  the 12z ICON didn't get it done, however...was a massive correction west with the cyclogenic aspects.   huge for that one run cycle.  can't correct even half that much more over else there'll be hell to pay 

[MJO812]

Euro took a big step to the gfs

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

just a little ob.  the 12z ICON didn't get it done, however...was a massive correction west with the cyclogenic aspects.   huge for that one run cycle.  can't correct even half that much more over else there'll be hell to pay 

wait until you see the euro

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wait until you see the euro

Big shift in H5

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wait until you see the euro

oh gees.  i can't. i'm cooking.  like up to my elbows in the kicchen.  i'll have to take a break here in a minute

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh gees.  i can't. i'm cooking.  like up to my elbows in the kicchen.  i'll have to take a break here in a minute

bit of a shift here if you ask me

[mahk_webstah]

I think it was the storm right near the end of November or beginning of December where the GFS led the way from the mid range. The euro took a long time to get on board, remember?

[ineedsnow]

its coming