January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the type of pattern where you get a slew of moderate SWFEs and redevelopers...not a big dog set up with that gradient.

That's a great way to build a sustainable pack.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

PNA looks to stay negative this month

It's going to be lose...that isn't a 2022-2023 Baja trough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

That's a great way to build a sustainable pack.

We should get a window for a bigger strike in early March.

[moneypitmike]

So we drove into  Mattapoisett this morning, and my wife said:  "I don't know what you're concerned about.  Every time we come down here there's more snow."

Maybe I can bring her down on Saturday for the 60's.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We should get a window for a bigger strike in early March.

Before that pattern sets up there is a brief window for a good coastal. Prob between about 1/14-1/18 or so. 

[CoastalWx]

59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern looks to be pretty favorable by mid-month now. Hopefully something pops ala 12z Euro today. 
 

Ensembles still showing a nice pattern out in the extended. There’s your +TNH pattern…basically -EPO and a near neutral to negative PNA. 
 

Some decent Greenlad ridging to help lock in some cold in SE Canada

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Before that pattern sets up there is a brief window for a good coastal. Prob between about 1/14-1/18 or so. 

Yea, we'll see......I'm talking like a KU type...not a 6-12" coastal.

Not complaining, BTW...just saying-

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 1/2/2026 at 3:13 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Today is the 32nd consecutive day on which the PNA is < 0. Despite the EPS and GEFS currently showing only a brief turn to positive, the historic evidence since 1980 suggests that a regime change to an extended period of a predominantly positive PNA is likely once the current stretch of PNA- concludes. Until one is in the short-range of the teleconnection forecasts, the base case remains a regime shift in the PNA, not a temporary fluctuation to positive values. 

All 10 prior streaks of 30 or more consecutive days since 1980 ended with a regime change in the PNA.

@qg_omega

[UnitedWx]

4 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Greenfield DPW has an unwritten rule where the plows don’t come out or anything under 2 inches.

Kind of like here in Westfield with the secondary and tertiary roads. It's not unwritten however, they tell people flat out if you want to help keep your taxes down we maintain the side roads like it's the 70s. Love it!

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Before that pattern sets up there is a brief window for a good coastal. Prob between about 1/14-1/18 or so. 

I’m flying in and out of MHT on 1/15 & 1/19. you can lock in a storm on one or both of those days.

[WinterWolf]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, we'll see......I'm talking like a KU type...not a 6-12" coastal.

Not complaining, BTW...just saying-

No we understand.  But I’ll be honest, give me a slew of 6-8 and 8-10’s and I’d be great. That’s a great set up imo. 

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I’m flying in and out of MHT on 1/15 & 1/19. you can lock in a storm on one or both of those days.

I’ll most likely be heading up to N. Aroostook that weekend too, so lock in the storm lol.  But I’ll be playing in the snow, so it’s not so bad for me when I think about it like that. 

[doug1991]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll most likely be heading up to N. Aroostook that weekend too, so lock in the storm lol.  But I’ll be playing in the snow, so it’s not so bad for me when I think about it like that. 

Ill be in the Jackman area. Keeping my fingers crossed. They need snow bad.

[ineedsnow]

4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any vertigo/dizziness with that?

Not with mine.. its weird though a week or so ago I was feeling that way out of nowhere.  But don't think it has anything to do with this.  

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Not with mine.. it’s weird though a week or so ago I was feeling that way out of nowhere.  But don't think it has anything to do with this.  

Vertigo is often a precursor.

 

[moneypitmike]

25 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Vertigo is often a precursor.

 

[Hoth]

42 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Vertigo is often a precursor.

 

Got it with Covid as well

[moneypitmike]

Soak it in.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Soak it in.

Euro and GFS are like 36hrs of dews SoP. I would love that. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just got back to CT. My God it’s warm! 

27.4°  

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just got back to CT. My God it’s warm! 

27.4°  

You haven’t even had a brutal cold day up there yet.

[brooklynwx99]

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing up 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You haven’t even had a brutal cold day up there yet.

Can’t wait. The coldest day was 12/26.

Hi/Lo of 9.2/-8.2 avg 2.2°

[kdxken]

Well if this doesn't say ass nothing does. 

 

[Torch Tiger]

18z gfs op does have a major event 1/15-16, then it's a very favorable looking game-on type of look in la-la land

[Torch Tiger]

looking good, if not wildly so

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

18z gfs op does have a major event 1/15-16, then it's a very favorable looking game-on type of look in la-la land

That looks to be a favorable window. Let’s hope it doesn’t get pushed back like many other patterns 

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

18z gfs op does have a major event 1/15-16, then it's a very favorable looking game-on type of look in la-la land

I think 1/15 also counts as la-la land. 

[Damage In Tolland]

52 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Soak it in.

Op gfs? Sell 

This has CAD look written all over it. Look up in Quebec 

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I think 1/15 also counts as la-la land. 

yeah true.  There is some model support for a decent system around that time, and it's a good look. we'll see