January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Damage In Tolland]

NYD snow signal still there 

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NYD snow signal still there 

Fropa

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fropa

It’s a 1-3” 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a 1-3” 

Front 

[moneypitmike]

A dusting with lollies of a heavy dusting.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Front 

You’ll be on a hot sweaty beach. So you miss out on a couple inches. No biggie 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’ll be on a hot sweaty beach. So you miss out on a couple inches. No biggie 

Looks too flat now for much if anything. Maybe it comes back but I’d forecast flurries right now. 
 

Pattern looks pretty awesome though beyond that. 
 

Here’s day 5-10 and then day 10-15 respectively on EPS

 

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks too flat now for much if anything. Maybe it comes back but I’d forecast flurries right now. 
 

Pattern looks pretty awesome though beyond that. 
 

Here’s day 5-10 and then day 10-15 respectively on EPS

 

Yeah looks great after the 6th or so. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah looks great after the 6th or so. 

Gonna be a miller B while you’re gone just to give you one more round in Ray’s beast shed. 

[dendrite]

Hopefully it’s not congrats DC, but at least there’s no monster PNA in the extended. I’ll roll with that block.

[Typhoon Tip]

I think we need to consider the 6-7-8 a pattern arrival event 

That's going to be an H.A. implication ( I suspect ...) as nearing the 5th, all ens systems agree in the rather abrupt guard change in the N. Pacific.  The entire circulation medium out there essentially product reverses, like on a temporal dime when considering planetary wave distribution.   Really fast...  intra-weekly time scale.

If that happens - first of all - that's likely to cause increased model performance problems.  Furthermore, the implications of sending a such a violent signal down stream, the western N/A ridge will be in a period whence the 'correction vector' will be pointed toward more amplitude - hint, I think more than is currently in the cinemas.  It's a wave # number/distribution argument.   When you supplant the regions N of HA with as much total height anomaly reversal (lowering in this case) like these charts below are showing ( using the GEPs but they are all doing it ), there will physically necessitate height growth into western North America...

More than 50% ...closer to 80% of this mass field alteration takes place in < 5 days.  I would be reeeally leery about any depictions down stream over eastern N/A. And by that, more amplitude is actually favored.   When I say correction vector that's just an expression I use to mean corrections that are inevitable in the guidance will likely lean in a given  direction... 

That all times around the 7th for some sort of emergence E of the nations midriff longitudes.  

[MJO812]

[cleetussnow]

Miller B type cinematic on the operational GFS for a couple runs now for ~the 7th which should be no surprise. 

[jbenedet]

January 6th system is warm. CONUS and Canada cooked. It will want to warm sector where most of us live. 

You’re making a bad bet on hoping for this to turn to a big snowstorm.

[jbenedet]

“Pattern shift….” 
 

Careful what you wish for. 

 

There’s some naive optimism in seeing less mid level troughiness on the west coast but this is not without losing cold anoms in Canada. After first few days of January risk is tilted warm, even in the northeast. There’s some indications also, that the MJO makes a pass to 4/5/6 which are all warm phases for Jan. 
 

Pattern looks like trash around hr240 on the ensembles.

 

Deluded to be getting excited for big snow from day 9ish on..

[TheSnowman]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, if the next big storm whiffs, I am going to absolutely lose it...lo and behold, I am one of the few spots that managed a below average snowfall December with 8". North, west, south and east/northeast...porked in every direction.

This is why I'm not thrilled with the +PNA/-NAO combo.

Ray.  5.5”.  Come On!!

 

12/2 was great 20 miles North of me.

12/14 was great 10 Miles S or SE of me.

12/23 was great 10 Miles North of me.

12/26 was a CT storm West & South of me.  

Screw Zone City!     

If it weren’t for that Crazy lucky 1:30-4am band Friday night that was purely for me to Franklin I’d be off the bridge.  

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

“Pattern shift….” 
 

Careful what you wish for. 

 

There’s some naive optimism in seeing less mid level troughiness on the west coast but this is not without losing cold anoms in Canada. After first few days of January risk is tilted warm, even in the northeast. There’s some indications also, that the MJO makes a pass to 4/5/6 which are all warm phases for Jan. 
 

Pattern looks like trash around hr240 on the ensembles.

 

Deluded to be getting excited for big snow from day 9ish on..

I do wonder ...  but, in the spirit of the Holiday and giving I'm restraining myself a bit. LOL 

I mean, when I look the ending frames of the ens means it's an odd sort of appeal.  Almost alike a warm +PNA with these non-hydrostats not indicating any/very little negative anomaly over the continent, despite a +PNA curvi-linear footprint.  This is the end of the GEFs but the EPS and GEPs have/are in the same general attitude.  

 

In the spirit of fairness...  the pattern change across the hemisphere is much, much higher confidence than anything specific in terms of events that come because of it.  In addition to that, I've been noticing for the past several year's worth of seasons, whenever the mode is definitely cold enough ... it's too compressed.  When the flow relaxes such that there is less overall negative interference, it's too warm.  It's been hard to achieve that middle range in there when there's conserved kinematics in the S/W scale, while being cold enough. 

...for whatever reason, notwithstanding  

It doesn't mean it's impossible but it's been a very real observation, a leitmotif.  So we'll see where this goes.  The flow is certainly relaxing out there... less compression.  More conserved in the S/W scale...  there are no guarantees the cold provision will be in play.  

[dendrite]

“Canadian model leading the way”

GL with that

[MJO812]

54 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

January 6th system is warm. CONUS and Canada cooked. It will want to warm sector where most of us live. 

You’re making a bad bet on hoping for this to turn to a big snowstorm.

Dont be a weenie 

You cant be serious 

[MJO812]

Explosive pattern on the models in early to mid January with a nice ridge out west and lots of blocking. The STJ is also waking up.

[cleetussnow]

We may have enough winter peak climo to fight off warm anomalies.  I see what the pope is saying wrt to warmth, at the same time the pattern looks good.  

[MJO812]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

We may have enough winter peak climo to fight off warm anomalies.  I see what the pope is saying wrt to warmth, at the same time the pattern looks good.  

As long as the blocking stays , we will be good.  The models do show that along with it decaying slowly. 

Watch out for the first week of January for a big east coast storm.  Geps has a big signal along with the euro.

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

“Pattern shift….” 
 

Careful what you wish for. 

 

There’s some naive optimism in seeing less mid level troughiness on the west coast but this is not without losing cold anoms in Canada. After first few days of January risk is tilted warm, even in the northeast. There’s some indications also, that the MJO makes a pass to 4/5/6 which are all warm phases for Jan. 
 

Pattern looks like trash around hr240 on the ensembles.

 

Deluded to be getting excited for big snow from day 9ish on..

Ya ok. You told us the clipper was a Miller B 

[weathafella]

I’ve been kind of concerned that in the long range eps Canada loses the deep cold.  Some signs of a reload beyond 360 but I don’t feel optimistic when the coldest air is on the other side of the pole.

[Fozz]

I think Jan 8-14 will be the window.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

“Pattern shift….” 
 

Careful what you wish for. 

 

There’s some naive optimism in seeing less mid level troughiness on the west coast but this is not without losing cold anoms in Canada. After first few days of January risk is tilted warm, even in the northeast. There’s some indications also, that the MJO makes a pass to 4/5/6 which are all warm phases for Jan. 
 

Pattern looks like trash around hr240 on the ensembles.

 

Deluded to be getting excited for big snow from day 9ish on..

Well here, not excited for it showing snow... just nice to see a POSSIBLE better pattern than we've seen in a while. What a clam

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I think Jan 8-14 will be the window.

Could be the 6th onwards. All the ensembles have signals.

Suppression can be an issue but hopefully we all cash in.

[WxWatcher007]

We’ll be fine, and we produce generally with this more classic type pattern, but we’ve been here before with these pretty patterns aloft and nothing coming of it. At least in our torpedo pattern we got a few hits.

I’d much rather keep the deep cold nearby, but I’m also in a whole different climate that’s been prolific here.

[kdxken]

34 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I think Jan 8-14 will be the window.

 

[weathafella]

Pattern wise I love the 11-15 on eps (12z/28).